Pavelski, trade high candidate

[Bass56]

Selfish BUMP of the day...
Some days, you just feel like giving yourself a pat-on-the-back.
Today... is one of those days.

NHL Scoring Leaders, season almost over:
1. Sidney Crosby 102pts
2. Ryan Getzlaf 84pts
3. Phil Kessel 79pts
4. Corey Perry 78pts
4. Tyler Seguin 78pts
4. Claude Giroux 78pts
7. Joe Pavelski 75pts
7. Joe Thornton 75pts
9. Patrick Sharp 73pts
9. Taylor Hall 73pts
9. Nicklas Backstrom 73pts
12. Alexander Ovechkin 72pts

[We'll just choose to disregard the part about accepting a Sedin for Pavelski.]

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!

Seriously though, I think I had this thread in the back of my mind when I took Pavelski early in my 1-year H2H league this year

No rAgrets here!

[hockeymanG23]

Then I guess me nabbing Pavelski recently for M. Richards and Weiss is a huge steal??

Uh, dang, you made out like a bandit!

[rufio.85]

Very nice prediction Pengwin!
But the original question of this thread remains though... it it time to sell high?
Obviously, it's pretty apparent that Pavelski has some serious upside, but does he regress and in what range will he settle?
This summer, I will dangle him in trade negotiations just to see what he's now worth. Maybe a steadier and more proven player comes the other way.
The Perry name mentioned in this thread is a prime example imo.

[jcairns]

Very nice prediction Pengwin!
But the original question of this thread remains though... it it time to sell high?
Obviously, it's pretty apparent that Pavelski has some serious upside, but does he regress and in what range will he settle?
This summer, I will dangle him in trade negotiations just to see what he's now worth. Maybe a steadier and more proven player comes the other way.
The Perry name mentioned in this thread is a prime example imo.

Yes, he's still a sell high. I think going forward you can expect him to get anywhere from 65-80 points with good contributions in the peripherals. His shooting percentage is at 18.2% - he's a career 11% shooter. I'd be happy to trade him for a reliable 75pt player.

[MillerTime89]

He's must sell-high player. He is shooting way over his career shooting % rate. Owners expecting a repeat of his production next year could be in store for a huge regression; sell now while you can.. I know I will be (Pavelski owner)

In dynasty leagues, I'd be looking at guys like JVR, Nyquist, Eberle, Pacioretty, etc.

[Zorro]

Then I guess me nabbing Pavelski recently for M. Richards and Weiss is a huge steal??

Wow, huge steal forsure.. I would get laughed at if I ever offered that to the Pavelski owner in our league..

[VincentVega]

Yeah, looking at Pavelski's career numbers, I can't see him repeating this year's performance. I'd treat him as a mid-60s point player going forward. Nice peripherals, though.

[Zorro]

Yeah, looking at Pavelski's career numbers, I can't see him repeating this year's performance. I'd treat him as a mid-60s point player going forward. Nice peripherals, though.

I see no reason to why Pavelski can't duplicate his point totals next season.. I think at 30 years old, 70+ points is still very obtainable for the "little general"..

[VincentVega]

I see no reason to why Pavelski can't duplicate his point totals next season.. I think at 30 years old, 70+ points is still very obtainable for the "little general"..

Career year at age 30, extremely high shooting percentage, well outside career average, I would be taking the under on 70 points next season.

[Bubba55]

http://cdn.niketalk.com/9/90/9091e3a2_Slowclapgif.gif

I'm impressed.

Me too. Pav is getting a nice 2 mil raise next year and I have been wondering if he is good value at 6 mil vice 4. Right now it looks like it. I'd like to hear folks opinion of whether his numbers this year are repeatable? Obviously a major concern is how a change in the Sharks forward core might effect Pav. Couture's struggles this year don't help alleviate that concern. The question is, is Pav that good that he can sustain 70+ point seasons regardless of his line mates?

[Zorro]

Career year at age 30, extremely high shooting percentage, well outside career average, I would be taking the under on 70 points next season.

I see what you are saying here but I dont see why if Pavelski is having a career year at 29, not sure why he can't do it again at 30.. You guys are definitely undervaluing JP..

[cizastro]

I gotta agree with Zorro. I'm in the pro-Pavs camp. Maybe I'm just a Sharks homer, but I love Pavelski's style of play. He's a playmaker plain and simple. He's not the beneficiary of having Big Joe around. Pavelski is a player that'll generate points either way. I think 65-80 points is a good annual range for him and unless I'm getting a good deal I'm perfectly fine hanging on to him.

I traded for him to boost my offense in a dynasty league this season and ended up giving Beleskey, Stefan Elliott and my 1st and 3rd round draft picks in the offseason draft. Since I finished 2nd in the league (regular season standings) that 1st rounder will be #15 out of 16.

[VincentVega]

Not sure I'm undervaluing Pavelski. I value him as a 65-70 point player. I don't see him getting over 70 consistently (or again?) and definitely not 80. His shooting percentage this year is much higher than his career average. Doubtful this can be sustained. If you assume his career shooting percentage for this year, he's right in that 65-70 point range.

[Luffy D Monkey]

Not sure I'm undervaluing Pavelski. I value him as a 65-70 point player. I don't see him getting over 70 consistently (or again?) and definitely not 80. His shooting percentage this year is much higher than his career average. Doubtful this can be sustained. If you assume his career shooting percentage for this year, he's right in that 65-70 point range.

Thats how I value him too, and I see that as a pretty damn good player.

[pmorrow]

The thing I worry about Pavelski is the fact that when the team is healthy, he is their 3rd line center. Given the amount of young talent in that lineup I'd be worried about his PP time in the future. He's always been a good 60 point guy but I have very little faith he can reproduce this season.