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Thread: Doughty's Value

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    Need an upside this year (translated to an 82 game season), and moving forward. He's a bit slow out of the gate, but hopefully he picks it up. It's hard, though with Voynov coming up the ranks and LA in a slump to start the season.

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    First off, Voynov is no threat to Doughty...at all! Voynov was a bit of a threat of JJ last year. Doughty is elite...loggin over 28 minutes a night in all situations and is leading the LA team with over 5 on the PP. His number being down is a result of everyone's #s being down. As soon as the top 2 lines start scoring his #s will come around.

    Upside is a tad tough b/c I think [perhaps aside from Karlsson] that it's tough for D to hit 60+ points on a regular basis. There will be ups and downs b/c D points are quite dependant on the quality and success of the F in front of them and sometimes even good teams have a year in which they struggle to find chemistry.

    I think in most seasons Doughty will be a 55-65 point D man with perhaps 1-2 seasons above that mark and likely a couple below it...he's 23 and not even in his prime yet.

    It's early to forecast #s as LA is already showing signs of their offense coming around, but even if we assume a down year one would have to think Doughty still points at a 45-50 point pace [and I think that's a low estimate]. I would still think 28-30 points this year is very achievable.
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    I am sorry, but I will believe Doughty can average 55-65 points per year when I see it. No guy in the NHL gets better treatment on these boards than him, and all based on a high pick and one good stretch of scoring. Until I see something different, I will be happy to see him hit the 45 point mark consistently.

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    he has a single 59 point season

    he is a 35-40 point defenseman and until he puts up better numbers consistently it is dangerous to treat him otherwise

    he has upside that is for certain however this will be the 3rd season in a row now where he hasnt lived up to that 59 point season
     
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    I'm with Lucifer here. He has one outlier season and people treat that, plus the pedigree and high pick as standard. Treat as you would any other 35-40 point, almost PIM per game D-man with good upside. Once in a while he'll hit it and make you look smart.

    Think Duncan Keith here. Nice D-man, steady 40-45 points, decent peripherals. Do you value him as a 69 point player? If not no reason to value Doughty as a 59 pointer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blunas View Post
    I am sorry, but I will believe Doughty can average 55-65 points per year when I see it. No guy in the NHL gets better treatment on these boards than him, and all based on a high pick and one good stretch of scoring. Until I see something different, I will be happy to see him hit the 45 point mark consistently.
    Cam Ward too. People on here sweat Cam Ward and he has never had a season under 2.4 GAA and only 1 season of 920 SV%. Dudes like a career 2.75 with a 911 SV% for me thats not great. Its solid, a number 2 fantasy netminder. Just like I think Doughty is the most overrated D player in the league (fantasy wise). As numerous other guys pointed out he is a 35-45 point DMan that is a 3rd-5th fantasy DMan.

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    I'm with the last 3 guys on this one, its crazy how people will jump on a bandwagon after a single season where a guy posts sick numbers and not consider that he might simply have had his career year. I think Doughty is one of those guys who's real world value far outstrips his fantasy value. I think he's a standard d-man, 40-50 pts every year with upside.

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    No specific stats to back this up, but I think it's safe to say that most D-men have their career years some time after the age of 25 or 26. Doughty is barely 23 years old. For him to have done what he's done so far is remarkable, despite the ups and downs.

    Pretty hard to take a "what have you done for me lately" stance with Doughty when most D-men his age have accomplished not much at all.

    He's averaging a full four minutes more TOI/G than last year, and almost a full two minutes more on the PP. The points are gonna rain down. It's already started.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    I'm with the last 3 guys on this one, its crazy how people will jump on a bandwagon after a single season where a guy posts sick numbers and not consider that he might simply have had his career year. I think Doughty is one of those guys who's real world value far outstrips his fantasy value. I think he's a standard d-man, 40-50 pts every year with upside.
    If you don't mind Mcgoo would you give me a hint as to what makes you draw this conclusion? To be sure few D-men point 55+ consistently, but we're talking about a 2nd overall pick who posted 59 points in his 2nd NHL season. In 3 post-season appearances he has put up 27 points in 32 GP and he's still a kid...Pronger didn't really jump into fantasy relevance until his 7th season. Doughty's skating doesn't seem ordinary to me. My only reasoning for him staying in the 40-50 range is having a Sutter coaching his team.

    I'm not trying to be a prick at all, just wanting to understand what makes you draw such conservative estimates for such a young, talented D.
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    Doughty is one of my favorite player but I just trade him last thursday 4 pts since I move him. I don't care because I receive Pekka Rinne in a 2 players deal the other player is a wash I got Stastny, I gave E.Kane they will be equal at the end of the year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by andrewklassen View Post
    If you don't mind Mcgoo would you give me a hint as to what makes you draw this conclusion? To be sure few D-men point 55+ consistently, but we're talking about a 2nd overall pick who posted 59 points in his 2nd NHL season. In 3 post-season appearances he has put up 27 points in 32 GP and he's still a kid...Pronger didn't really jump into fantasy relevance until his 7th season. Doughty's skating doesn't seem ordinary to me. My only reasoning for him staying in the 40-50 range is having a Sutter coaching his team.

    I'm not trying to be a prick at all, just wanting to understand what makes you draw such conservative estimates for such a young, talented D.
    no not a prick question at ALL! In fact that's an excellent question and one well deserved of an answer. For me, this kind of thing lies mostly in trend analysis... For whatever reason, offense among d-men fluctuates quite a bit over time. Check out this graph of the last decade that shows how many 50+ pt scorers we've had each season to get an idea of what I am driving at. Lately its been a down cycle for d-men even though we've seen guys like Green and Karlsson blowing up all notions of what a d-man CAN be from a fantasy perspective. Its really got nothing to do with the talent of the player (we know Doughty is money, he has a gold medal to prove it), its more to do with how scoring has changed and/or evolved.

    This is pure speculation on my part, but I think a good part of it is related to changes in team philosophy and coaching. I think like anything else, the NHL is a constantly evolving dynamic...so you might see d-men joining the rush more and pinching and exploiting holes in defenses and the result is more pts for them initially...but eventually the coaches adapt to this and in turn find ways to exploit offensive d-men who pinch too often or over commit to the offense and then you get a backlash effect where they play more conservative until they can find a way to exploit the exploit

    So yeah, Doughty could score 70 pts and I wouldn't flinch in the slightest. But that won't happen this year, or the next or the next even. I think a big part of Doughty's value to his team right now is his defensive play and with that kinda stacked roster and solid character players who show up when it most matters they don't need him to be an offensive juggrnaut, so my feeling is that he'll be fantasy-average for the next 2-3 years and perhaps that may be his regular production. But he definitely has the potential to blow that all away, I'd never question his upside, I just feel we might see 2-3 seasons of average fantasy numbers yet.

    Last edited by mister_mcgoo; February 6, 2013 at 1:11 AM.

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    drew doughty is beginning to look like the defenceman equivalent of rick nash... all of the talent in the world but suprisingly low production. people who love him will make up excuses for years, always reaching back to that one glory season. then one day he will find the magic again and they will all say "told you so" only to be disappointed again for another long run of seasons.

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