Ovechkin vs Vanek

[puckinright_27]

Who would you rather have in a keeper league?

Jersey selling ability aside, is the answer Vanek?

[andrewklassen]

There are a lot of fantasy GMs sour on Ovi...I'm one of them [trust me]. When considering keeper league implications I always feel it's good to look at pedigree and point history to see if we're seeing a blip or a trend.

Vanek has played 7 NHL seasons [not counting the current one] and has cleared 70-80 points once and 80+ points an additional once. The other 5 seasons have been between 48 and 64 points respectively.

AO has also played 7 NHL seasons [not counting the current one] and has cleared 80-90 points once, 90-100 points once and 100+ four additional times. His lowest career total of 65 was still better than 5 of Vanek's 7 seasons.

Am I concerned about AO's downward trend...yes. Do I think Vanek will outpoint him this season...definitely. Do I think Vanek is the better keeper...not a snowball's chance in Mexico.

[dejeanneret]

There are a lot of fantasy GMs sour on Ovi...I'm one of them [trust me]. When considering keeper league implications I always feel it's good to look at pedigree and point history to see if we're seeing a blip or a trend.

Vanek has played 7 NHL seasons [not counting the current one] and has cleared 70-80 points once and 80+ points an additional once. The other 5 seasons have been between 48 and 64 points respectively.

AO has also played 7 NHL seasons [not counting the current one] and has cleared 80-90 points once, 90-100 points once and 100+ four additional times. His lowest career total of 65 was still better than 5 of Vanek's 7 seasons.

Am I concerned about AO's downward trend...yes. Do I think Vanek will outpoint him this season...definitely. Do I think Vanek is the better keeper...not a snowball's chance in Mexico.

I think is is spot on.

I just posted the following in a different thread discussing Ovie vs. a slew of others (including Vanek):

Vanek is obviously killing it right now. But as a point of reference, let's not forget that the guy has exceeded 65 points in his career in only 2/7 seasons. Meanwhile, Ovie is getting roasted (rightfully so) partly because he put up "only" 65 points last year, and because he's looked like garbage for the most part this year as well.

People may no doubt disagree, but I mention this only to highlight an example of where I think the Ovie hate might be going a tad bit far and it could be a HUGE undersell to pull the ripcord now in a keeper league.

[Gaborlick]

haha, I love all this stuff. Andrewklassen makes the best point. This season for Vanek is the exception not the rule. The 65 points for Ovechkin is the exception not the rule.

[hockeyrobot]

AO still scored 38 goals last season....including 11 in his last 13 games. He still has it in him. I would go with him over Vanek

[Loki]

Sometimes there are more variables than just the skill set of the player.
Last year may have been an aberration for Ovie but who was the coach and what system was it?
Vanek playes for Ruff who appears to have the job in perpetuity.
Ruff is a former lunch bucket guy who wants all his players to play the way he did...he'd be ecstatic if he turned Vanek into Holmstrom.
I just wonder if Vanek ever had the chance to play in an up-tempo offensive game how much more he could have been.
I also wonder what would happen if Ovie was traded to Anaheim and reunited with Coach B what may happen.
Both likely not to happen.

All that being said...I have Vanek and I'd trade him in a second for Ovie...today...right now.
Then again, I'm a big sell high...buy low guy.

[lucifer316]

Last year may have been an aberration for Ovie

what about the year before

what about this year

[andrewklassen]

what about the year before

what about this year

Well let me think...the year before he posted more points in a season than Vanek ever has. Hmmmm.

This year...well, even I'm not arguing he's sucking hind tit. I'm aware of the downward trend, but I'm equally aware of the sensational scoring history he has. Right now I still think the history outweighs the downward trend.

Perhaps I'm simply rose-colored...

[puckinright_27]

There are a lot of fantasy GMs sour on Ovi...I'm one of them [trust me]. When considering keeper league implications I always feel it's good to look at pedigree and point history to see if we're seeing a blip or a trend.

Vanek has played 7 NHL seasons [not counting the current one] and has cleared 70-80 points once and 80+ points an additional once. The other 5 seasons have been between 48 and 64 points respectively.

AO has also played 7 NHL seasons [not counting the current one] and has cleared 80-90 points once, 90-100 points once and 100+ four additional times. His lowest career total of 65 was still better than 5 of Vanek's 7 seasons.

Am I concerned about AO's downward trend...yes. Do I think Vanek will outpoint him this season...definitely. Do I think Vanek is the better keeper...not a snowball's chance in Mexico.

great perspective here.

i think the fear is that ovy will continue to trend downward. seeing him log ice time w/ joey crabb and jay beagle only heightens those concerns. w/ a shortened season, maybe its worth it to dump vanek for ovy & sacrifice the short term for long term production?

[puckinright_27]

Sometimes there are more variables than just the skill set of the player.
Last year may have been an aberration for Ovie but who was the coach and what system was it?
Vanek playes for Ruff who appears to have the job in perpetuity.
Ruff is a former lunch bucket guy who wants all his players to play the way he did...he'd be ecstatic if he turned Vanek into Holmstrom.
I just wonder if Vanek ever had the chance to play in an up-tempo offensive game how much more he could have been.
I also wonder what would happen if Ovie was traded to Anaheim and reunited with Coach B what may happen.
Both likely not to happen.

All that being said...I have Vanek and I'd trade him in a second for Ovie...today...right now.
Then again, I'm a big sell high...buy low guy.

i think this the whole strategy though right?

sell high on vanek & buy what is presumably the lowest point on ovechkin?

for me, that would give me crosby and ovechkin as keepers. without sacrificing any other keepers in the trade.

[lucifer316]

Well let me think...the year before he posted more points in a season than Vanek ever has. Hmmmm.

vanek has nothing to do with ovechkin and his aberrations

you claimed last year was an aberration for ovechkin so what was the year before when he dropped 20 points from the season prior

This year...well, even I'm not arguing he's sucking hind tit. I'm aware of the downward trend, but I'm equally aware of the sensational scoring history he has. Right now I still think the history outweighs the downward trend.

this is the third season in a row where he looks to drop production i dont see how any scoring history outweighs that personally

one season is a blip two seasons is a trend i am not even sure what the hell three seasons is but it isnt good thats for sure

people are trying to treat ovechkin like he has only had one off season and i just dont understand that

he has fewer goals than joel ward so far which would be fine if this was a slow start

but it shouldnt take a player 3 years to get started

[Luffy D Monkey]

Its not the first time somebody's had a 5 point game. Jesus.

Did you trade Crosby for Sam Gagner last season?

[puckinright_27]

Its not the first time somebody's had a 5 point game. Jesus.

Did you trade Crosby for Sam Gagner last season?

no, but im about to get ovechkin for vanek.

[Pengwin7]

Vanek has these BIG games, every year.
They are just more noticeable at the start of the season.

Keep Ovechkin.

[Meniac]

Vanek has never had a 5 point game until this year. He's had some 4 point games, but that's usually once a season. Considering this is his second 5 point game (in only 6 games) tells me this year may be a bit different. In the past, lines used to get shuffled in Buffalo like crazy, but him on a line with Hodgson and Pom looks promising as their showing great chemistry together. Unless one of them succumbs to an injury I see this line sticking for quite some time. There will likely be some inconsistency with Vanek (as there usually is), but for the most part, I see this season as a big improvement for him. He was a beast last year as well to start and for the first half of the season, but then fell off a cliff the second half. With his current hot streak, I only see the shortened season as a benefit for him. This should be his second season with more than a PPG.

With that said, this season he'll easily beat Ovie in points, however, who knows what next year will bring. Ovie is definitely in a major funk and the only explanation would be factors external to hockey that are bothering him. He just looks like he's lost his passion to play hard day in and day out. Based on his history, you can easily say he has the most potential between the two, but when/if he ever wakes up and returns to form is the big question. The safe bet is Vanek. The high risk, high reward is Ovie.