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Thread: Tough Call...Who to start tonight?

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    Mallinos's Avatar
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    Default Tough Call...Who to start tonight?

    Can only start two....

    Lundqvist vs Pit in NYR
    Rask vs Buf in BOS
    Elliot vs Clb in CLB

    With CLB's inability to score goals and STL stingy defense I'm inclined to start Elliot but can I really sit one of Lundy or Rask?

    Opinions greatly appreciated.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mallinos View Post
    Can only start two....

    Lundqvist vs Pit in NYR
    Rask vs Buf in BOS
    Elliot vs Clb in CLB

    With CLB's inability to score goals and STL stingy defense I'm inclined to start Elliot but can I really sit one of Lundy or Rask?

    Opinions greatly appreciated.
    When you have Lundqvist and Rask, I would start them regardless of matchup. It may backfire, but I'd rather get burned by starting my anchors than try to guess on whom will perform best and one of my studs has a great performance on my bench.
    Last edited by horrorfan; January 31, 2013 at 12:29 PM.
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    I agree with horrorfan here, as appealing as Elliott's matchup here may be, you have to go with your superstars.
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    Agree with the above - Rask and Lundy. You may get burned on any given night, but over the season starting your top dogs will pay dividends.

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    You have to start your studs.
    You will win long term by doing this.
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    I'll disagree with the replies so far above.
    I'm a match-up guy.

    Rask & Elliott.
    St.Louis is playing the best defense in the league, BY FAR.

    Imagine if Brian Elliott was the only goaltender for St.Louis.
    Imagine that Brian Elliott played only in a two-team league: St.Louis & Columbus.
    Imagine Henrik Lundqvist played only in a two-team league: NYR & Pittsburgh.

    Which goalie would have better stats?
    Lundqvist playing 82 games vs. Pittsburgh
    or
    Elliott playing 82 games vs. Columbus

    We are looking at JUST one game.
    There's no "Lundqvist's other stats against other teams" involved here... just NYR vs. Pittsburgh.
    There's no "Elliott's other stats against other teams" involved here... just St.Louis vs Columbus.

    With day-to-day goalie sit-start decisions, you go match-ups.
    Always.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    I'll disagree with the replies so far above.
    I'm a match-up guy.

    Rask & Elliott.
    St.Louis is playing the best defense in the league, BY FAR.

    Imagine if Brian Elliott was the only goaltender for St.Louis.
    Imagine that Brian Elliott played only in a two-team league: St.Louis & Columbus.
    Imagine Henrik Lundqvist played only in a two-team league: NYR & Pittsburgh.

    Which goalie would have better stats?
    Lundqvist playing 82 games vs. Pittsburgh
    or
    Elliott playing 82 games vs. Columbus

    We are looking at JUST one game.
    There's no "Lundqvist's other stats against other teams" involved here... just NYR vs. Pittsburgh.
    There's no "Elliott's other stats against other teams" involved here... just St.Louis vs Columbus.

    With day-to-day goalie sit-start decisions, you go match-ups.
    Always.
    I am with Penguin7. As good as Lundy is, I wouldnt be taking risk against Pittsburgh.

    I think you need to look at match ups, not just the names.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post

    With day-to-day goalie sit-start decisions, you go match-ups.
    Always.
    Always? Yeah I disagree - both strategies can work but I prefer to trust the guys that I drafted/acquired for this sole reason - to play them. Sometimes matchups work, sometimes they don't. As much analysis one can do doesn't always pan out. Like I said above, I'd rather be burned with my starter in the lineup than on my bench. It's a matter of preference and no set rule.

    As for using the logic of playing 82 games against Pitt vs Clb - well that doesn't apply because I trust my stud more against ANY opponent on a given night. We know it doesn't always work, but it's the best strategy for me, and works well enough. There's no way I'd like to see Lundqvist post a shutout on my bench. No way.
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    with 3 great options you play the matchups, why wouldn't you? This whole 'start your best guy always' logic has become very prevalent on these forums but its often badly flawed IMO. Sure if its between Lundqvist and Clemmenson you go with Lundy every time, but when you've got several talented goalies on your team all playing well why would you ignore the matchups? That's just foolish.

    Another trick you might wanna try if you're really torn on who to start is to look at the splits on NHL.com. It will show you how they matched up against a given team in the past (home vs. away, etc). For example, here is Elliot from last year:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id...012&gameType=2

    he has played well against CBJ in the past so probably a good start
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    Quote Originally Posted by horrorfan View Post
    Always? Yeah I disagree - both strategies can work but I prefer to trust the guys that I drafted/acquired for this sole reason - to play them. Sometimes matchups work, sometimes they don't. As much analysis one can do doesn't always pan out. Like I said above, I'd rather be burned with my starter in the lineup than on my bench. It's a matter of preference and no set rule.

    As for using the logic of playing 82 games against Pitt vs Clb - well that doesn't apply because I trust my stud more against ANY opponent on a given night. We know it doesn't always work, but it's the best strategy for me, and works well enough. There's no way I'd like to see Lundqvist post a shutout on my bench. No way.

    Nobody likes to see a shutout on their bench... and yeah, it's gonna happen.
    And yeah... people will kick themselves for seeing Lundqvist post that shutout on their bench.
    But people should kick themselves ANY time they leave a shutout on their bench. (if it could have been foreseen)


    HERE - you just can't deny the numbers.

    Let's take it to an extreme.
    Lundqvist & a team of 10-year olds vs. Team Russia
    or
    Elliott & Team Canada vs. team of 11-year olds

    It's not just about the goalie.


    Another (fairer) mathematical model is to consider shots-on-goal.

    STL allows about 19 shots per game.
    CBJ takes about 27 shots per game.
    CBJ will, thus, probably get 23 shots on net.
    I'd call Elliott a .910 SV% goalie.
    Thus, he'll allow 2.07 goals against.
    *We also have to consider how many STL will score... likely 3 or more. So it's a likely win for STL.

    NYR allows about 30 shots per game.
    PIT takes about 29 shots per game.
    PIT will, thus probably get 29 shots on net.
    I'd call Lundqvist a .920 SV% goalie.
    Thus, he'll allow 2.32 goals against.
    *We also have to consider how many NYR will score... could be 2, could be 3. It's a 50/50 game, I'd bet.


    So... the STATISTICS suggest:
    i) Elliott more likely to give up less goals
    ii) STL more likely to win


    And if you need one more source:
    LeftWingLock gives Elliott a "goalie score" prediction of 80.
    They give Lundqvist a "goalie score" prediction of 60.


    You can have your own "gut feeling" on this... but all of the numbers are on my side. Start Elliott.

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    I know Elliott is a good goalie and everything, but we're not talking about choosing between Elliott, Dubnyk and Pavelac here. We're talking about King Henrik, Tuukka and the St Louis backup goalie in Elliott. Plus, the Penguins haven't exactly been lighting it up offensively this year. Granted, they have the firepower that they could come out and score 6 tonight. The chances of that happening against Lundqvist are about as likely as the chances of Elliott coming out and putting up a stinker. If it's me, I roll with my two top goalies tonight.

    There are definitely times you roll with the matchups but I don't feel this is one of them.
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    Id start Rask anmd Elliott. I usually subscribe to the start your studs theory but I also dont ignore matchups ..... if Im flip-flopping on what to do I start my stud. I just think Pitt is due for a big night from either Malkin or Crosby or both and I could see them really being up for this game against the Rags, combine that with the loss of Callahan and I think I would stay away from the Rangers tonight. Just a hunch .....
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4T2 View Post
    and the St Louis backup goalie in Elliott who played as well as Halak last year on the best defensive team in the NHL that is facing the absolutely most offensively-poor team in the NHL.
    I added some things to your quote that you left out.

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    Nice analysis Pengwin, I totally agree. I'd go Elliott over Hank too...and it's not even really close when you consider everything. Penguins could easily put up 5 or 6 goals tonight...Columbus what maybe 2?

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    Quote Originally Posted by wendelclark17 View Post
    Id start Rask anmd Elliott. I usually subscribe to the start your studs theory but I also dont ignore matchups .....
    This.

    I'm a huge proponent of the "start your studs" school of thought, but nothing's 100% in fantasy hockey and you always have to evaluate each unique situation.

    Lundqvist is the best goalie in the world, and the Pens are struggling, but STL vs CBJ is too sweet of a match-up to pass up on. That's as good as it gets in terms of lopsidedness... you've got a strong defensive team that's just rolling, you've got a decent goalie (albeit he's no Lundqvist), and you've got the shittiest offensive team in the league.

    I wouldn't fault anyone for choosing to start King Henrik, ever, but if it were me I'd be sitting him tonight.
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