View Poll Results: Neal or Ovechkin - straight points - keeper - (while owning Malkin)

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  • Give me Neal!

    11 31.43%
  • Give me Ovechkin!

    24 68.57%
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Thread: J.Neal vs A.Ovechkin

  1. #1
    LeTrefle's Avatar
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    Default J.Neal vs A.Ovechkin

    Call me crazy if you want, but I'm asking you anyway.
    In a points only keeper league without position, can we put Neal and Ovechkin in the same category?
    I know AO has a lot more value. I know AO is the big name. But do we win pools with value? with names? or with points?...
    Neal outpointed AO by 16 last year. Can we assume that it will be different this year (prorated)?
    AO owner ask me for Neal twice a day (we're co-workers).
    Would it be out of place to ask for Ovie in a trade?
    Would it be crazy for him to consider a trade involving Neal and AO?
    Would you advise me to be careful with Ovie?
    Thanks guys!
    Keeper league (12 teams) - keep 6 (+ NHL team is auto keep)
    Weekly lineup: 1T, 9F, 4D, 1G
    Points only:
    Forwards & Dmen: goal (1), assist (1)
    Goalies: win (2), otl/sol (1), shutout (2)
    Team: win (2), otl/sol (1)
    1 FA pickups for the season
    [T]Montreal
    [F]Crosby, P.Kane, Radulov, Lucic, B.Schenn, Little, Plekanec, Nyquist, Hudler, Marner, S.Bennett, Marleau, Parenteau, Perreault, Aho, Vrbata
    [D]Burns, Yandle, Markov, Vatanen, Muzzin, Larsson, Ceci
    [G]Holtby, Varlamov

  2. #2
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    It does sound crazy, but you're right to be careful with Ovie.

    It's only been 3 games, but Neal looks amazing and Ovie (and the caps altogether) looks anything but.
    CBS Cash Pool / 10 Teams / $500 Buy-in / Weekly H2H Lineups / 10 Active 4 Bench
    Points Only: G=1, A=1, DG=2, W=2, SO=1

    Forwards: Benn / Giroux / Simmonds / Kopitar / Johansen / Neal / Hoffman / Ehlers
    Defense: Letang / Klingberg / Markov / Parayko
    Goalies: Jones / Anderson

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    I, personally, love the fact that you have BOTH Malkin & Neal.
    For me, this comparison is about much more than Ovechkin vs. Neal.
    I'd keep Neal simply because you own Malkin.

    Here's why:
    Fantasy hockey keeper leagues is all about winning or losing. Finishing in the middle is the worst.
    I want to be champ or I want a good re-draft pick in future years.

    Malkin & Neal have their output tied to each other.
    Malkin does great, Neal does great.
    Malkin does good, Neal does good.
    Malkin stinks, Neal stinks.

    Say you play a game where you roll two dice.
    1) You can elect to roll one dice, then the other dice
    or
    2) You can roll one dice & double the value.


    Q: Which should you do?
    A: Roll one dice & double the value.

    Why? Because if you roll a 6... that's 12. Even with 20 competitors, nobody can beat you and there is a good shot you'll beat everybody else. If you roll a 1, that's only 2. You'll finish dead-last (or tied for it). In fantasy hockey, this is the equivalent of winning a league or finishing last.

    Pengwin7's Dice Theory >>> other theories by former Dobber artists whose name shall not be spoken.
    Last edited by Pengwin7; January 24, 2013 at 12:59 PM.

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    Elite tandem theory anyone? I may one of the last, but I still can't fathom Ovie not being one of the best 5-6 players in the world after seeing his first few seasons in the NHL. I may end up crying on my beer, but I still gamble with Ovechkin here.

  5. #5
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    I'm also in the boat of not believing that Ovie has just "lost it." While he has had two down seasons in a row, the guy remains quite simply one of the best offensive players in the world in terms of what he is capable of doing. On the other hand, I think last year might be near the peak of what Neal can do.

    I find the "dice theory" really interesting, and it certainly presents a take on things that I've not really considered previously. But while I may also be in the minority here, as an owner of both Ovie and Neal, I can honsetly say that I'd trade Neal for Ovie in a heartbeat, but would not consider moving Ovie for Neal straight up. In a keeper league, particularly points only, I still firmly believe that it's Ovie>>>Neal.
    14 Team H2H Dynasty League (14 keepers, no farm)
    Weekly Starts (3C, 5W, 5D, 1Util, 2G)
    G, A, PPP, SOG, BS, +/-, GAA, W+OTL, SV%


    C: Backstrom/Giroux/Domi/Stastny/E.Staal
    W: Ovechkin/Neal(IR)/Nash/S.Bennett/E.Kane/Jagr/R.Smith
    D: Faulk/Klingberg/Seabrook/Rielly/Provorov/DeAngelo/Beauchemin
    G: Fleury/Mason/Neuvirth(IR)

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    I like that theory Pengwin7, especially when the two players are Malkin/Neal. That's probably the best example of a tandem that would be effective with that strategy.

    That said, I think it's obvious OV has the higher upside. It comes down to whether you're comfortable gambling on that, when you know Neal playing with Malkin will be a solid option no matter what.
    WHL - Halifax Krakens

    C - Backstrom, Zetterberg, Plekanec, Dubinsky, Thompson
    LW - Landeskog, E. Staal, Steen, Marchand, Berglund, Tanguay
    RW - Atkinson, Eriksson, Stempniak, Shaw, Comeau
    D - Hedman, Goligoski, Demers, Beaulieu, Kulikov, C. Murphy, Seidenberg, Holden
    G - Quick
    IR - Berra, Wisniewski
    Prospects - Demko, Samuelsson, Labanc, Stolarz, Hickett, Marchenko, Lessio, Backman, Vladar

  7. #7
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    I think the biggest logical flaw that people have with Ovie is that they think his "upside" remains at the numbers he posted 3-4 years ago. Upside refers to future potential, not past achievements, and a lot has changed since the Caps glory days.

    Going by that same logic, Selanne's "upside" would be 76 goals and 132 points.
    CBS Cash Pool / 10 Teams / $500 Buy-in / Weekly H2H Lineups / 10 Active 4 Bench
    Points Only: G=1, A=1, DG=2, W=2, SO=1

    Forwards: Benn / Giroux / Simmonds / Kopitar / Johansen / Neal / Hoffman / Ehlers
    Defense: Letang / Klingberg / Markov / Parayko
    Goalies: Jones / Anderson

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    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    I think the biggest logical flaw that people have with Ovie is that they think his "upside" remains at the numbers he posted 3-4 years ago. Upside refers to future potential, not past achievements, and a lot has changed since the Caps glory days.

    Going by that same logic, Selanne's "upside" would be 76 goals and 132 points.
    Amen.

    As far as classing Neal with OV, I think he's on par as long as he's riding shotgun with Malkin and OV remains status quo with what he has recently done.

  9. #9
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    Valid point regarding past performance not necessarily equating to upside, although Ovie is only 27 years old and (theoretically, at least) on the younger side of his prime years. Selanne, well different story. And Ovie is no Cheechoo type either in terms of a magical year coming from a marginal player.

    Of course it's no sure thing that he gets back to his former 100+ point ways, but I also don't necessarily think it's illogical to say that he's in the discussion of being amongst the few players in the league who very well could.
    14 Team H2H Dynasty League (14 keepers, no farm)
    Weekly Starts (3C, 5W, 5D, 1Util, 2G)
    G, A, PPP, SOG, BS, +/-, GAA, W+OTL, SV%


    C: Backstrom/Giroux/Domi/Stastny/E.Staal
    W: Ovechkin/Neal(IR)/Nash/S.Bennett/E.Kane/Jagr/R.Smith
    D: Faulk/Klingberg/Seabrook/Rielly/Provorov/DeAngelo/Beauchemin
    G: Fleury/Mason/Neuvirth(IR)

  10. #10
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    Interesting...
    I was thinking that it would be all for Ovie, but reading your posts, it seems a lot closer.
    Added a poll to have a greater sample.
    Continue with your arguments, the more is the best!
    Keeper league (12 teams) - keep 6 (+ NHL team is auto keep)
    Weekly lineup: 1T, 9F, 4D, 1G
    Points only:
    Forwards & Dmen: goal (1), assist (1)
    Goalies: win (2), otl/sol (1), shutout (2)
    Team: win (2), otl/sol (1)
    1 FA pickups for the season
    [T]Montreal
    [F]Crosby, P.Kane, Radulov, Lucic, B.Schenn, Little, Plekanec, Nyquist, Hudler, Marner, S.Bennett, Marleau, Parenteau, Perreault, Aho, Vrbata
    [D]Burns, Yandle, Markov, Vatanen, Muzzin, Larsson, Ceci
    [G]Holtby, Varlamov

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    It does sound crazy, but you're right to be careful with Ovie.

    It's only been 3 games, but Neal looks amazing and Ovie (and the caps altogether) looks anything but.
    Its been three games and Neal looks awesome and AO looks crap. QUICK! Drop him for Neal.
    O&B Dream Team
    Bill Barber - Bobby Clarke - Tim Kerr
    Mark Howe - Chris Pronger
    Bernie Parent

    Farm: Giroux

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Atomic_Wedgy View Post
    Its been three games and Neal looks awesome and AO looks crap. QUICK! Drop him for Neal.
    Haha you won't find any disagreements from me that 3 games is way too soon, just saying that the OP has a legit concern about Ovie that's all.

    I would still take Ovie myself personally, but that could easily change by mid season.
    CBS Cash Pool / 10 Teams / $500 Buy-in / Weekly H2H Lineups / 10 Active 4 Bench
    Points Only: G=1, A=1, DG=2, W=2, SO=1

    Forwards: Benn / Giroux / Simmonds / Kopitar / Johansen / Neal / Hoffman / Ehlers
    Defense: Letang / Klingberg / Markov / Parayko
    Goalies: Jones / Anderson

  13. #13
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    Me too. I think AO is the clear choice, but its not as clear as it was in the past. He is still the choice to take tho.
    O&B Dream Team
    Bill Barber - Bobby Clarke - Tim Kerr
    Mark Howe - Chris Pronger
    Bernie Parent

    Farm: Giroux

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    As much as I've been burnt by so many Russian Hockey Players, Bryz, Nabby, Semin and yes...OVIE himself...I traded Neal for Ovie 2 years ago...and I stand by that trade. Neal is a superstar riding shotgun with Malkin. Ovie is the guy that others want to ride shot gun with. Where ever he goes, much like Malkin, Crosby, Giroux and Tavares (to name a few), he will likely be the best player on that team. (The hockey Gods can't even distinguish between Crosby and Malkin...so pick one...best player)
    Team:
    2xC - Tavares, Matthews, Getzlaf, Wennberg, Marchesault(L)
    2xL - Hall (LW), Laine (LW/RW), Kreider, Maroon
    2xR - Kucherov, Simmonds Marner (RW/C), Eberle, Vanek (LW/RW),
    4xD - Karlsson, OEL, Josi, Yandle DeAngelo, Trouba
    2xG - Crawford, Jones, Hellebuyck, Reimer
    2xUtil -Hellebuyck, Marner or Getzlaf
    12 Team Keeper league with Yahoo

    Roster (14 Kept Players): 2C,2LW,2RW,4D,2G,2Util (Can keep a 3rd G with Util)
    SEASON SCORING: 3C,3LW,3RW,5D,1U,2G
    (Weighted Category Points: see below).

    Skaters -
    (Points: G a/o A) 6
    (+/-) 3
    (PIM) 1
    (PPP) 5
    (GWG) 5

    Goaltenders
    (W) 15
    (GA) -10
    (SV) 1
    (SHO) 15

  15. #15
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    With Neal you know you are going to get a 80-85 pt guy. In Ovie you dont know if your going 65pt guy from last year or the 85pt guys from 2 years ago or the 100pt guy from 4-5 years ago. Ovie is high risk high reward.
    I would play it safe and go with Neal.
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    14 Team NHL Salary Cap Dynasty
    H2H, Salary Cap 97.1 Mil, Player actual salaries
    1 Week scoring period
    G,A,PTS,GWG,PIM,SOG,STP,HT,BL,+/-,W,GAA,SV,SO
    Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalies

    F - Stamkos, Perry, Benn, Abdelkader, Johansen, Boedker, Marchand, Okposo, Backlund, Hagelin, Ferland, E Staal
    D - Barrie, Benn, McIlrath, Petrovic, Strait, Chiarot
    G - Reimer, Raanta

    Bench - Lowry, Solomaki, Neil, Carrick, Nilsson, Keumper, Zatkoff
    Prospects - McCann, Tuch, Mascherin, Saros, Stolarz, Driedger, O'Connor, Bean, Keller,Abramov

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