Reply With QuoteCold streaks will also have an impact. Where did Stamkos play during the lockout? I bet he's in game shape and raring to go!
It's harder to maintain a pace over a larger sample of games.Originally Posted by Pengwin7
Statistically speaking, shortened season means the top goal/game rates should be higher since there's more room for deviation from the long-run average (ie: hot streaks will have a greater impact).
Cold streaks will also have an impact. Where did Stamkos play during the lockout? I bet he's in game shape and raring to go!
Yes... but the cold streaks are irrelevant to this analysis.
If half the guys go on cold streaks, and half the guys go on hot streaks, then in all likelihood the leading scorer will still have a higher goal/game ratio in a shortened season than a regular season.
The point is, higher standard deviation = higher peaks.
Stamkos was training with Gary Roberts during the lockout. He is in the best shape of his career and is stronger and faster from to training with Gary Roberts.
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I heard Stamkos got fat and is reeling from herpes...
I think the Stamkos call will win but I got in late so I will have to go off the board...
D.Sedin - 32
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G- Lundqvist, Niemi, Elliott
The latter statement is only true if your sample size of contenders is large. (ex. If you were looking at 20-30 guys that score ~50pts, yes, you'd have somebody pace for 60+)
But the number of guys that are leading the NHL in goal-scoring rarely changes.
It's basically a group of four (Stamkos/Ovechkin/Crosby/Malkin) that might exceed a 60 goal-per-season pace... and that's the only way the leader will be at 37 (or more).
Outside of Stamkos' 60... the highest output in the last 3 years is 51 goals.
That's about 0.62 goals per game.
Multiply that by 48 games and you'll get 30 goals. (Which is why I like 31... 32... 33 as predictions).
Last edited by Pengwin7; January 14, 2013 at 5:48 PM.
how did i miss out on this thread?! woah
sign me up...Crosby 32 goals in 48 games..yes he will play all of 'em!
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Revised guess for me Blayze - Nash with 32.
I'll take Crosby at 31 goals, but considering I'm a Crosby owner I really hope Big Ev is right.
Done... although I think it's safe to say you have Nash locked up lol
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I'm going off the board a little: Hall-32.
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Stamkos 41, yeah I said it. Guess i'm nuttier than squirrel turds.
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Malkin 36 goals
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