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Thread: Rate my team (just drafted)

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    Default Rate my team (just drafted)

    Just had our draft tonight in my one year league- 11 teams. Cats are: goals ( weighted twice) Assists( weighted twice) plus/minus and power play points. Goalie cats are Wins, GAA, SV % and Shutouts.
    I had the 6th pick. Since goalie stats make up 40% of our league's points I targeted goalies with my 1st 2 picks. Even though I went goalie/ goalie I still think I ended up with real solid forwards and dmen. Thoughts?

    F Toews
    F Kessel
    F Benn
    F P Kane
    F B Ryan
    F Stastny
    F Mike Richards

    D Yandle
    D Phaneuf
    D Ehrhoff

    G Lundqvist
    G Rinne

    Bench Desharnais
    Bench Weiss
    Bench Varlamov
    Bench Goligoski
    Bench Fowler

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    One thing I left out is that is a roto league.
    Any input would be appreciated.

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    bumping this up to see if anyone can provide input. Thanks!

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    I anyone has a chance to look at this today it would be great.
    I made one roster move so far, dropping Fowler and picking up Atkinson

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    Honestly, I think this team will be in the 7th-9th place range.

    Here's the thing... forwards (as a collective group) are very consistent.
    You draft the points, you'll get the points.
    Because you went with two goalies in rounds #1 & #2, you don't have these forwards.
    This means that everybody probably has a jump, offensively, on you.
    And it means that your should be predicted for last place in most offensive categories.

    With goalies, you drafted them expecting the TWO goalies to provide last year's stats and win you all of the goalie categories.

    When you are counting on just TWO players, there is a lot more randomness. A bad year from just one guy and your stats are hurting badly.


    Here's where I'm going:
    FORWARDS = Reliable. You are going to get reliable production. If you draft the TOP skater group, I think a team will finish top 2 in those categories.

    GOALIES = More variable. I think somebody (here, it is you) can draft a TOP goalie pair and then maybe just one of them (Rinne?) has a rocky year and it pulls your goalie stats down to 5th, maybe 6th.


    If I'm investing in a "position", I'm investing in forwards.
    I'll draft crap goalies late, because crap goalies have had decent years... in the past. It happens.
    Decent forwards are always decent forwards.

    Sorry... I don't see you winning this league.

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    Pengwin,

    Thanks for your input. Last year I won the league based on the strength of my goaltending ( Had Rinne, picked up Elliot and swung a deal for Miller right before he had a major hot streak) and my best forward was Henrik Sedin. In a 11 and 12 team leagues I feel it is important to land at least one elite goalie early.
    While I didn't land any of the big 3 forwards ( Crosby, Malkin or Stamkos) I believe that with Toews, Kessel, Kane, Benn and Ryan I have 5 guys in that next tier that can all potentially put up a point a game or better. I think it is not unreasonable that I could have 5 or 6 of the top 25 forwards.

    The only team that I think can match me in goaltending ( he has Quick and Halak) I do not believe is as strong at forward ( his top 3 forwards are Spezza, RNH and Jordan Staal.) Fortunately there was a goalie run on the 2nd tier goalies like Kipper, Ward, Fleury etc at the end of the 2nd round allowing guys like Toews, Kane, Benn, etc to drop further than they probably should have.
    Other teams that went heavy on forwards early ended up with what I feel are question marks such as Hiller, Lehtonen, Lindback or Brodeur as one of their top 2 goalies.
    With 40% of the league stats going towards goaltending and it being a roto league I felt that my strategy of targeting 2 elite goalies early was the way to go.
    I guess we will see how it shakes out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by karljans View Post
    Pengwin,

    Thanks for your input. Last year I won the league based on the strength of my goaltending ( Had Rinne, picked up Elliot and swung a deal for Miller right before he had a major hot streak) and my best forward was Henrik Sedin. In a 11 and 12 team leagues I feel it is important to land at least one elite goalie early.

    Yeah... you won it with guys that had ELITE seasons.
    But make-no-mistake Brian Elliott was on nobody's radar during last year's drafts. And I was in two leagues where Mike Smith was on the championship team. Ryan Miller was a dud for the first half of last season, you traded him and got him at a low point... and that's my point. Teams won their championships with Brian Elliott & Mike Smith because they were able to add them as waiver goalies... since they did NOT have a quality goalie from their drafts.

    Yes - teams will always win leagues based on strength of goaltending.
    The mistake is that people are often drafting last year's strong-goalies and expecting them to be this year's strong goalies.

    There's less guarantee in report-performance from goalies.
    Look at the year after Tim Thomas, Ryan Miller, etc. won their Vezinas.

    Specifically Thomas, went from 2.10 GAA to 2.56 GAA. Teams that drafted Thomas as a top 3 goalie didn't win their leagues that year after the Vezina.
    Instead, Rask emerged and we were all salivating "Tuukka Rask, Tuukka Rask, Tuukka Rask" for the following year.
    Then Rask flubbed & Thomas returned to greatness. Teams that invested in Rask for that season didn't win their leagues.
    If you bought low both years, you did well. If you went with the guy that did better the previous year, you lost value.

    Ryan Miller was 2.22 GA to 2.59 GAA. Teams that drafted Miller as a top 3 goalie didn't win their leagues that year after the Vezina.

    Vezina-caliber winning goalies CAN have off-years.
    People forget this.
    Last edited by Pengwin7; January 17, 2013 at 12:22 PM.

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    I see your point about there always being guy every year ( Rask a few years ago, Smith and Elliot last year) that you can grab off the wire and they end up being a top goalie and it is certainly valid.
    My only thing is that you saw that I drafted Lundqvist and Rinne with my top 2 picks and dismissed my forwards as being subpar. It certainly could have ended up that way but I think I got lucky that I was able to grab guys like Benn, Kane and Ryan in the 5th, 6th and 7th round and I think I ended up with a very well rounded group of forwards.
    Teams are always looking for goaltending in my league so if my offense sputters I can always swing a deal like Rinne for Corey Perry or something like that later on.
    Thanks

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    It's not a bad group of forwards, I'd have to see the full-draft to analyze whether you got a good-steal on them. 11-teams isn't a lot. You can revive this thread after the season if I was wrong, I won't be mad.
    You asked us/me to rate it, I rated it.

    Good luck

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    i disagree with P7.

    with 4 roto categories attributed to goalies, I could see you taking 9+ points in each of them, easy.

    but really, your teams needs bounce back seasons from your forwards. nearly all of them had injuries or uncharacteristically poor seasons last year. kessel is the only guy in your group that didn't underperform last year (and he may have overperformed for his situation)... the more of these guys that rebound, the better your chances. i think toews, kane and benn all could finish top 10 in scoring this year if things break right. not to bad for 3rd round+ picks. if kessel can score 70 and ryan, richards and stastny can rebound - look out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by InnocentBystander View Post
    i think toews, kane and benn all could finish top 10 in scoring this year if things break right. not to bad for 3rd round+ picks. if kessel can score 70 and ryan, richards and stastny can rebound - look out.

    I, too, can turn any team into a championship caliber team by adding enough "if"s.
    An "if" statement applying to seven forwards... nice.

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    No I agree and I really appreciate that you responded. If the draft was simply based on last year's stats it wouldn't be any fun!
    The one thing that puts me to ease is that Lundqvist and Rinne have been remarkably consistent the last few years so I am less concerned about a potential dropoff from the Vezina level stats then I would be if I drafted someone like Mike Smith or even Quick and was counting on them to duplicate last year's numbers.
    It's funny because in fantasy baseball leagues I do the exact opposite as the top pitchers tend to fluctuate from year to year so I target the big hitters early and draft pitching later on in the draft

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    I, too, can turn any team into a championship caliber team by adding enough "if"s.
    An "if" statement applying to seven forwards... nice.
    what?

    every single player projection is essentially an "if"...

    you can't guarantee anything before it happens.

    i don't think those 3 guys finishing top 10 is an unreasonable projection and i don't think expecting better seasons from the others is much of a stretch either.

    you said earlier in the post that you draft forwards early because they are more reliable. well, this guys team basically shows that this isn't necessarily the case. not many people would have predicted that any of these guys would have has the off years that they had, and especially not all of them.
    ultimately, who care what these guys or any guys, did last year, it is what happens this year that counts... good thing he didn't draft crosby cause nobody wants a 37 point forward on their team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by InnocentBystander View Post
    ultimately, who care what these guys or any guys, did last year, it is what happens this year that counts... good thing he didn't draft crosby cause nobody wants a 37 point forward on their team.
    Uh... with skaters, I really care how they did last year.
    Really, really, really care. (talking point-per-game output... not Crosby injury).


    If you think the guy has a good team, just say it.
    You disagreed with my evaluation of his team.
    I pegged him 7th-9th in an 11-team league.

    Just say it... where will he finish? (Give me a three position range)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    I, too, can turn any team into a championship caliber team by adding enough "if"s.
    An "if" statement applying to seven forwards... nice.
    When you think about it though most of the top forwards this year have some sort of "if" or question mark
    Crosby (concussions), Malkin (health to a lesser degree), Giroux (concussions), Backstrom ( concussions), Ovechkin ( off year), Perry ( off year), Getzlaf ( off year), Spezza (health), Kane ( off year), Toews( health), Neal ( no real track record of being a top guy), Eberle ( same), St Louis (age, off year), Parise ( new team, numbers down last year), Kovalchuk ( lost Parise, new linemates), Thornton( declining), Datsyuk (declining), etc, etc

    I had the 6th pick so I knew I wasn't getting any of "big 3 forwards" or Ovechkin. I figured grab one or two elite goalies and get as many forwards from that next tier as possible. It could certainly backfire as one year I drafted Tim Thomas (after his first Vezina) and Steve Mason ( after winning the Calder) thinking I locked up goaltending and ended getting destroyed.

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