Havlat v McDonagh v Neuvirth

[ross10019]

Huge keeper decision coming up, league in the sig. We start every week 9 fwds (3c/6w or 4c/5w), 5D and 2 G.

For this year only, we are allowed to keep up to 16 players (from 14 previously) and unlimited goalies, which raises some questions.

I traded Perron for a 2nd rounder, so here is what I am thinking for my keepers:

C: Getzlaf/Zetterberg/Spezza/Roy
W: Gaborik/Marleau/Moulson/Fleischmann/Horton
D: Letang/Karlsson/Byfuglien/Bieksa
G: Lundqvist/Hiller

So that leaves one spot left, and as you can see I made the decision to keep Horton (over Havlat) and Bieksa.

This leaves the decision to add either Havlat as a 6th W, McDonagh as a 5th D or Neuvirth as a 3rd G.

I think it comes down to McDonagh (great shotblocker, decent pts, lots of minutes) or Neuvirth (if he ends up starting in Washington, that's huge, and even if he doesn't he's a pretty good option for a 3rd goalie). Goalies are huge in our league so I'm tempted to keep Neuvirth on the off chance he hits it big. Havlat's just too injury-prone so I've counted him out, but it's not an easy decision either. Note that with the top 4 D I'm planning on keeping, I'm set in terms of a points/SOG/PPPs/G/A perspective, but weak on Blk shots, McD is a great combo of blk shots and points contribution (not to mention plus/minus).

Thoughts appreciated!

[Oilblood]

I'd go with McD, he's a much better real life player than a fantasy asset, but 20 points and +20 in this abbreviated campaign is nothing to shake a stick at. His trade value seems pretty high right now too, I got getzlaf for him last week straight across(couldn't hit accept fast enough when that offer popped up!)

[Shake]

Tough call.

I go for the home run and keep Neuvirth, he can help you regardless. McDonagh can also help, but I think finding a goalie is more difficult than trying to find a McDonagh type. I keep Neuvirth here.

[VincentVega]

I'd go with McD with Neuvirth being a close 2nd. If he ends up stealing the starting job back from Holtby, you'll be in great shape. I wouldn't touch Havlat with a 1000-foot pole.

[horrorfan]

Tough call.

I go for the home run and keep Neuvirth, he can help you regardless. McDonagh can also help, but I think finding a goalie is more difficult than trying to find a McDonagh type. I keep Neuvirth here.

I agree with Shakedown - it comes down to the replacement level player. McDonagh is a solid depth D but you should be able to find another guy, maybe not as solid, but give you decent production and a lot of blocked shots. Whereas you don't have a bench goalie and even though he's a backup, he's one of the few who has a legitimate shot at starting. Being a 14 team league, I doubt there will be much left to draft. Do you know what's your draft slot?

Havlat could be solid as well but it appears he's more replaceable. He probably has a low perceived value already, and there will likely be depth forwards available in the draft to take a flier on, if not him.

[ross10019]

I agree with Shakedown - it comes down to the replacement level player. McDonagh is a solid depth D but you should be able to find another guy, maybe not as solid, but give you decent production and a lot of blocked shots. Whereas you don't have a bench goalie and even though he's a backup, he's one of the few who has a legitimate shot at starting. Being a 14 team league, I doubt there will be much left to draft. Do you know what's your draft slot?

Havlat could be solid as well but it appears he's more replaceable. He probably has a low perceived value already, and there will likely be depth forwards available in the draft to take a flier on, if not him.

I won the title last year so my draft spot is 14th in each round, of 14 teams. I traded for 15th overall though so that will be an important pick, and I do have an early 3rd rounder from a previous trade. That said the draft pickings are slim this year, given that we each kept two additional keepers, so most of the value in the draft will be in the young studs who haven't played yet.

In light of this, I think players like Neuvirth, Havlat and McD will probably go high in the draft (as may Visnovsky, Ian White and Desharnais, who i'm dropping). My guess is Neuvirth and McD will probably go in the first round, with Neuvirth possibly going first given the slim goalie availability although not sure about that one. I doubt Havlat goes before those two but it could happen.

The beauty is, though, that our draft isn't until the 23rd, most likely, so well after the start of the season on the 19th, I can gauge to see how Neuvirth is faring against Holtby before deciding. That may play a role in deciding between Neuvirth and McD, but I have to say yours and Shakedown's take makes sense, with the value of goalies in this league and the potential "home run" that is Neuvirth if he steals the starter's gig (and by that I mean long term value, not just this year). That said the 5th D is key, the last starting D spot, and McD makes a very good one given his all-around ability.

Thanks for the responses boys, great to be back on the forum! Keep 'em coming!

[ross10019]

Added a poll for those who would vote quickly but don't want to take the time to explain! Thanks for all the input boys.

[lucifer316]

i like mcdonagh and i like him in a big way but i dont know if i can argue against a goalie given a 14 team league

that said if mcdonagh gets pp time you could very well regret not keeping him

[ross10019]

i like mcdonagh and i like him in a big way but i dont know if i can argue against a goalie given a 14 team league

that said if mcdonagh gets pp time you could very well regret not keeping him

I hear you, well here's a different spin on it, would you keep McDonagh instead of Bieksa? Keeping in mind that, other than A and SOG, McD's numbers were better than Bieksa's last year. And since I already have Letang, Karlsson and Byfuglien, I can withstand a Dman that has less pts / SOG in favor of a guy like McD who blocks shots in line with the elites (and also is going to give very solid plus/minus). It's a fair question, at minimum.

[lucifer316]

I hear you, well here's a different spin on it, would you keep McDonagh instead of Bieksa? Keeping in mind that, other than A and SOG, McD's numbers were better than Bieksa's last year. And since I already have Letang, Karlsson and Byfuglien, I can withstand a Dman that has less pts / SOG in favor of a guy like McD who blocks shots in line with the elites (and also is going to give very solid plus/minus). It's a fair question, at minimum.

as i said i am a big mcdonagh guy i probably would but i am biased

i think his sog will improve i mean he was a second year player last year (and his first wasnt a full season) and was put out against the best offensive players in the league

so as his role expands and as he gets more comfortable with taking some risks i see his sog and assists increasing

again though i am biased

[ross10019]

Shake and Horrorfan, this is directed at you guys in particular as you were favoring keeping Neuvirth.

Right now the decision is to keep TWO out of Neuvirth, Bieksa and McDonagh.

The following goaltenders will likely be available in the draft, and only 3 or 4 of 14 teams in my league are likely to take a goalie in the first round, most of these guys will slip to 2nd round and beyond (I predict Holtby and Lindback are the only ones who go in the first round).

Holtby
Lindback
Theodore
Bernier
Emery
Khudobin
Neuvirth
Montoya
S Mason
Bobrovsky
Nabokov
DiPietro
Harding
Bishop
Lehner

It's looking more and more llikely that I'm keeping McD over Bieksa (too much keeper / trade value in McD), so this comes down to whether Bieksa or Neuvirth is more valuable to me. Neuvirth is the homerun if he can steal the spot from Holtby, but that's not looking good right now. My gut tells me to still stick with Neuvirth given the general value of goalies in the league, and wait to see what Dmen are available in the draft, but it's really a toss-up given how many decent 3rd string goalies are available.

Your take?

[horrorfan]

I think I'd still keep Neuvirth. Bieksa had a nice season but I'm weary on whether he can repeat, and I expect others to feel the same so might be easier to redraft. All it takes is Holtby struggling and then Neuvirth's in, and he should still get a fair amount of starts this season (think I read that somewhere). At least, for whoever takes Holtby, keeping Neuvirth could give you trade bait for someone who'd like the handcuff so they wouldn't have to worry about the situation. Goalies are valuable in your league so you might be able to get a nice upgrade if the situation arises.