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Thread: GP projections for Ward, Rinne and Kipper

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    Default GP projections for Ward, Rinne and Kipper

    Hi, I'm in a 1 yr roto league with max games per position of 82 on a full season - so obviously 48 or 50 over the remaining 12 to 13 weeks of the season if it ends when it normally does.

    That is an average of 4 games a week for each team.

    I am trying to estimate how many games Rinne, Ward and Kipper will each play of that schedule. Is 40 about right?

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    90% of their teams games for each of these workhorse goalies.
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    I'd wait for a schedule -- will depend on how many back-to-back nights they put together.
    40 is probably about right though.
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    Rick,

    I think a lot of it will be determined by scheduling and how many B2B games that each team will have...

    There's more travel for WC teams so I could see maybe more B2B games for them than East coast teams, you might see a lot more 3 games in 4 nights for them. Like a west coast Canadian trip of Edmonton, Calgary and Van over 4 nights. Or even a LA, Ana, SJ, Phx and Dal trip over a week (which is 5 games over 7 nights), which will see a lot more work from the backups.

    Back to your question...

    2nd thing you need to consider is quality of backup as competition. A goalie that has a better quality backup, the coaching staff will naturally "timeshare" more.

    3rd thing is how close will the team be to playoff contention. A team on the cusp might find themselves in a few more "must win" divisional games which they would tend to want to ice their "best" teams, which could mean goalies playing in more B2B games. Where as teams that will "coast" into the playoffs or are bottom feeders will probably see more "split" time situations.

    Ward - is a bit of a workhorse, so he should see a plenty of starts. He's usually around the 80% mark in his history. With Boucher and Peters (12-6-1, 2.44 and .911 in the AHL this season), so there's a bit of competition there to maybe ease Ward off a bit, especially if they want to keep him fresh for a playoff run. I could see him drop down to maybe 70-75% of starts, so around 35-37 starts out of 50 games...

    Kipper - is a workhorse, so he should still get plenty of starts. 87.8, 86.6 and 82.9% of GS during the last 3 seasons, with the major competition from Karlsson who doesn't really posts a lot of "quality" stats to begin with, Kipper should be safe for 80-85% of GS, IMO. So maybe 40-42 out of 50 games.

    Rinne - is typically a workhorse, but with that said was that because Trotz didn't trust Lindback or was Rinne just unbenchable last season? One thing to keep in mind is that prior to the 72 starts last season, he was averaging around 55 starts the 3 seasons prior. I'm not saying that things are going to revert back, but the 70+ starts could have been an abberation. Another thing is that they also re-signed Chris Mason as the backup. He's still a pretty decent backup who could easily take 10-15 starts especially in B2B situations. Rinne I think could go either way, I could see 40+ starts from him if the Preds are in a tight playoff race, but I could also see them ease him to 35-40 given that he's already played quite a bit in the KHL already this season.

    My 2 cents.

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    Thanks guys, yes the schedule will be useful in fine-tuning projections here, but I am considering a proactive trade offer to move one of them and trying to figure out how close I might be to max games with only two of these guys. With 1/2 the goalie stats being cumulative it would be a good idea to hit max games (W, SV).

    Damned if you do and damned if you don't - takes 3 starters to hit max games or 2 starters and their backups (4 bodies).

    Guess i have decide if the pretty penny I can get for one of them more than offsets lose of position in those categories.

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    There all going to get a huge amount of games. If their teams want to get into the playoffs these are the guys that need to be in between the pipes. If teams are in contention and no injuries occur, I'd expect 40+ starts each.

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    I see all goalies playing over 40 games. Ward might play most out of the 3 guys.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shoeless View Post
    Hi, I'm in a 1 yr roto league with max games per position of 82 on a full season - so obviously 48 or 50 over the remaining 12 to 13 weeks of the season if it ends when it normally does.

    That is an average of 4 games a week for each team.

    I am trying to estimate how many games Rinne, Ward and Kipper will each play of that schedule. Is 40 about right?
    Rinne- 43
    Ward- 42
    Kipper- 42
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    If the NHL smashes 4 games per week into a schedule, I think you'll see a lot of coaches pre-setting their goalies as a 3:1 split. Three per week for the #1, one for the back-up.
    This would be only 75% starts or 36/48.
    I think a workhorse like Kipper or Rinne would start 40... but I wouldn't count on any higher than that for a smashed schedule.

    On the front-end of the schedule, I think a goalie could be seriously worn down if he plays too much too soon.
    So - that's another case with back-ups eating significant games.

    It will be the last 3-4 weeks of the schedule - where you'll see a lot of teams leaning on their #1 only, because of confidence and importance of every game.
    Niemi (SJ) was a good example in past years... the Sharks went heavy on him only later in the schedule, giving him every start in March.
    Last edited by Pengwin7; January 7, 2013 at 11:04 AM.

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    All three should play 36-40 games. I would be surprised if they played over 40 since the games are packed so tight together that there isn't enough normal rest period for the goalies. There will be forced rest since fatigue will be a huge issue and nobody wants to burn out their goalies before playoffs.
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