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Thread: Need some advice on keeper selection

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    Default Need some advice on keeper selection

    Won last year with good depth. Unfortunately not allowed to keep them all!

    Keep 5 only no max / min on positions.

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    Love my good young tallent, but no trades are allowed at this juncture so I have to drop 2 from the list below. (Goalies are very difficult to acquire as well as high end tallent due to the limited depth of the league - 10 teams keep 5)

    Giroux
    Tavares
    Seguin
    Neal

    Fleury
    Schneider
    Kipprusoff

    Any help is appreciated.

    Thanks.
    Last edited by jackalope; December 29, 2012 at 1:59 PM. Reason: League depth... forgot PIM's as a Cat.

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    This is a tough one for me.. I usually play in leagues with more of a split of categories geared towards players.. So my instinct is always to grab as much elite forward talent as possible. But for your league and the emphasis on goalies its probably best for you to keep 2 (Fleury and Schneider). Giroux and Tavares are a must keep so that leaves one spot open for either Seguin or Neal. I really think Seguin will keep getting better and better every year, but its hard to discount Neal's last season. I think you need to make sure you have another winger, so if Seguin is only listed at C, you should keep Neal. But if Seguin can be a wing as well, I'd take a shot with him and his upside. Too bad you cant make any trades
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    Is this a H2H or Roto league?
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackalope View Post
    Giroux
    Tavares
    Seguin
    Neal

    Fleury
    Schneider
    Kipprusoff

    Any help is appreciated.

    Thanks.
    Fleury would be next on the list. But I like Schneider as "my" goalie that much more here. I'd be taking all forwards here.


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    Brosive makes an interesting point in regards to the situation with your wingers. Without PIMs Neal is the player I'd look at dropping, but if neither Giroux or Seguin have wing eligibility I would consider keeping Neal over Seguin.

    For your second drop I'd let Kipper go. He's still so good but in a keeper league I want to hang onto those younger players. And I'd definitely keep 2 goalies since they account for almost 45% of your stats.
    Last edited by hockeymanG23; December 29, 2012 at 10:47 AM.
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    Well, your league isn't TOO deep, as you only have 10 teams with only 5 keepers...so there's likely to be a breadth of goalies available in the re-draft...that being said, goalies account for almost 45% of your stats, so you definitely need to keep two, especially if they are talented. I'd keep Fleury and Schneider and let Kipper go. Schneider is soon to be a stud. Saw him play in Manitoba over the full season and he's ridiculous...just a monster. Can't wait to see him get a chance to start!

    Giroux and JT are the obvious choices, I think. I'd probably take Seguin over Neal...I have a feeling Seguin has a higher ceiling, although Neal had a heck of a season last year. Whoever has Wing eligibility you should keep, though.

    Edit: these are my suggestions for Roto...Head-to-head, I agree with the poster below me, goalies aren't as crucial.
    Last edited by BradyJets; December 29, 2012 at 11:21 AM. Reason: roto only

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    Quote Originally Posted by horrorfan View Post
    Is this a H2H or Roto league?
    I should clarify why I feel this is an important question. Might help with the advice, might not.

    If it's a H2H league:

    Even though the categories appear to favour goalies (5 x 4), in a H2H league goalies are generally less crucial to success given that it all comes down to a given week. That being said, I understand that you need strong goaltending to put yourself in a position to be successful.

    Another point is the categories themselves. Even though there are four goalie categories, shutouts don't usually have an effect on a matchup and usually ends up as a tie, so it's pretty insignificant. That leaves three categories, which devalues goaltending a bit more, but given that two of them are ratios you need goalies that will help you more with quality over quantity. This might favour Fleury and Schneider more than Kiprusoff, as even though he had a great season, his value can fluctuate from year to year. Fleury hasn't been elite but is solid, plus he's on a better team, has a solid backup pushing him (Vokoun) and is younger.

    If it's a roto league:

    Goaltending is crucial in this format. It's all about cumulative production and you need high end goaltending to give yourself a chance at a title. Furthermore, shutouts, although infrequent, are extremely important since each one will have a significant effect on the standings. So I would go for goalies that could steal a few games or are on better teams. This would make me choose Fleury and Schneider even more. But Kipper could be useful as well depending on max games and if Schneider splits starts again. In this case I would consider keeping all three goalies.

    Other comments:

    Knowing this, there's an option that you could actually drop both Seguin and Neal and keep all three goalies, especially if you feel many teams will keep two+ goalies, which wouldn't leave you much in the draft. If that's the case, there will be plenty of solid offensive players available. It's a tough call. One thing for sure, I would definitely keep two goalies. Also mentioned by Brosive, the wing eligibility is a factor as well. If Seguin is C only, I would consider keeping Neal if you are debating between the two since you have two centres already. Giroux (I'm guessing) should have C only (soon, if not currently).

    In a keep five league, it's likely that there will be a lot of turnover from year to year and other than a couple of core players, it's possible that you may be focusing your strategy more on a yearly basis. What was key to your win last season other than depth?
    Last edited by horrorfan; December 29, 2012 at 11:31 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by horrorfan View Post
    Is this a H2H or Roto league?
    Roto

    Thanks, forgot that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by horrorfan View Post
    I should clarify why I feel this is an important question. Might help with the advice, might not.

    If it's a H2H league:

    Even though the categories appear to favour goalies (5 x 4), in a H2H league goalies are generally less crucial to success given that it all comes down to a given week. That being said, I understand that you need strong goaltending to put yourself in a position to be successful.

    Another point is the categories themselves. Even though there are four goalie categories, shutouts don't usually have an effect on a matchup and usually ends up as a tie, so it's pretty insignificant. That leaves three categories, which devalues goaltending a bit more, but given that two of them are ratios you need goalies that will help you more with quality over quantity. This might favour Fleury and Schneider more than Kiprusoff, as even though he had a great season, his value can fluctuate from year to year. Fleury hasn't been elite but is solid, plus he's on a better team, has a solid backup pushing him (Vokoun) and is younger.

    If it's a roto league:

    Goaltending is crucial in this format. It's all about cumulative production and you need high end goaltending to give yourself a chance at a title. Furthermore, shutouts, although infrequent, are extremely important since each one will have a significant effect on the standings. So I would go for goalies that could steal a few games or are on better teams. This would make me choose Fleury and Schneider even more. But Kipper could be useful as well depending on max games and if Schneider splits starts again. In this case I would consider keeping all three goalies.

    Other comments:

    Knowing this, there's an option that you could actually drop both Seguin and Neal and keep all three goalies, especially if you feel many teams will keep two+ goalies, which wouldn't leave you much in the draft. If that's the case, there will be plenty of solid offensive players available. It's a tough call. One thing for sure, I would definitely keep two goalies. Also mentioned by Brosive, the wing eligibility is a factor as well. If Seguin is C only, I would consider keeping Neal if you are debating between the two since you have two centres already. Giroux (I'm guessing) should have C only (soon, if not currently).

    In a keep five league, it's likely that there will be a lot of turnover from year to year and other than a couple of core players, it's possible that you may be focusing your strategy more on a yearly basis. What was key to your win last season other than depth?
    Thank you for the well thought out response.. it is a roto league...

    Goaltending was not great for me last year - Had Ward to begin the season - which got be behind - Luongo being out for a lenght of time allwed Schneid's to get me some stats to pull me up a little. With that in mind I think keeping 2 goalies is a must (Fleury, Schneider)

    My team was successful due to a balance of all the offensive players stats. PIM's helped (Backes, Neal, Chara, Simmonds) were owned and allowed me to get PIMs' without sacrificing +/- or Pts. With that in mind, Neal was huge... tough call to drop him in favour of Seguin despite his upside going forward.

    I'm leaning keeping Neal over Seguin as Giroux and Tavares are musts as well as Schneider and Fleury. Still tough to decide.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brosive View Post
    This is a tough one for me.. I usually play in leagues with more of a split of categories geared towards players.. So my instinct is always to grab as much elite forward talent as possible. But for your league and the emphasis on goalies its probably best for you to keep 2 (Fleury and Schneider). Giroux and Tavares are a must keep so that leaves one spot open for either Seguin or Neal. I really think Seguin will keep getting better and better every year, but its hard to discount Neal's last season. I think you need to make sure you have another winger, so if Seguin is only listed at C, you should keep Neal. But if Seguin can be a wing as well, I'd take a shot with him and his upside. Too bad you cant make any trades
    Good call on the W depth -- W's are also tough to trade for along with goalies. Definately check that out before making final decision.

    It's a Yahoo based league so both Giroux and Seguin have W eligability to start.

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    In a roto league, you definitely need 2 good goalies. Schneider's risk is that he splits his starts with Luongo and Van keeps both all year. Kiprusoff is probably the safer pick for this year, but I'd roll the dice on Schneider myself. There will be other goalies available to augment your Fleury/Schneider tandem.

    As much as I like Seguin, he doesn't contribute PIMs and Neal does. Even though Seguin was more valuable than Tavares last year in this format, mostly due to +/-, Tavares can not be dropped imo.

    I would drop Seguin and then try to pick him up again with my 1st round pick. Depending where you pick, he just might slip under the radar for you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jackalope View Post
    Thank you for the well thought out response.. it is a roto league...

    Goaltending was not great for me last year - Had Ward to begin the season - which got be behind - Luongo being out for a lenght of time allwed Schneid's to get me some stats to pull me up a little. With that in mind I think keeping 2 goalies is a must (Fleury, Schneider)

    My team was successful due to a balance of all the offensive players stats. PIM's helped (Backes, Neal, Chara, Simmonds) were owned and allowed me to get PIMs' without sacrificing +/- or Pts. With that in mind, Neal was huge... tough call to drop him in favour of Seguin despite his upside going forward.

    I'm leaning keeping Neal over Seguin as Giroux and Tavares are musts as well as Schneider and Fleury. Still tough to decide.
    What goalies would likely be available in the draft, based on other teams' likely keepers? In terms of name value and age, I would gather that Schneider holds more perceived value than Kiprusoff, given his potential and age. Also, it's likely that each team will keep at least one, and some two, goalies so they may not target them in the first round. Since you won last year, will you have the last pick in the first and first pick in the second? I'd consider picking Kiprusoff back up if he's available (and the best option) in case Schneider is still splitting time with Luongo. Do you have max games per position?

    I can understand leaning towards Neal because of his strength in multiple categories. I'm always weary on using a category such as PIM to sway a decision as it more easily found in the draft elsewhere. However, if he can produce another solid campaign even with a bit of a regression (say 70-75), is that enough plus the PIM for you to choose him over a guy like Seguin, who may not give you as much PIM, but could outpoint Neal in the near future? Perhaps that perceived advantage won't be much and could be similar in the next couple of years? It is a tough one, but considering your keepers, you are already quite strong so it's not a decision that will necessarily hurt your team.

    Another thing I touched on in my earlier post - even though it's a relatively shallow league (in terms of roster depth), in a keep 5, do you (and perhaps other managers) focus more on the year ahead more than the future? Given that there could be plenty of turnover due to the draft, trades and pickups, it seems to me that the focus should be more on now rather than later. In that case, I would consider keeping Neal because we know where he's at, what team he's on and what he can produce in the right circumstances. Seguin could break out but I believe (read it on here somewhere) that he still was a bit limited in his ice time which would limit his point potential. The Bruins may still remain a scoring-by-committee type team and he could be limited to the 70 point range next season. Which I would argue is the floor for Neal next season, unless he inexplicably struggles.

    Note that all this is coming from someone who's not the best at projecting players going forward, rather focusing on what I feel are their strengths and how they can best fit into a team's strategy. It's very likely that whoever you drop will be picked up, so the main question is: who are you less likely to miss from your squad?
    Last edited by horrorfan; December 29, 2012 at 3:56 PM.
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    I would keep Giroux, Tavares, Seguin, Fleury and Schneider.

    As much as I like Neal, Seguin will have RW eligibility and I think he's going to really break out this upcoming season.
    Last edited by dmvincent; December 29, 2012 at 4:23 PM.
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