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Thread: Marty St. Louis' value in a keeper league

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    loco man's Avatar
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    Default Marty St. Louis' value in a keeper league

    Points only. Let's assume the season is washed out, what do the next few years hold for MSL?
    20 Team Dynasty League - POINTS ONLY (Champion - 2017, 2016, 2015)

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    Goalie: W (3.5) SO (4) L (-1)
    Daily starts: 9 Fwd, 6 D, 1 Goalie

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    I love MSL, but approaching 40, I expect 60s, and an eventual decline into the 50s.
    13 team Keeper, top 8F, 4D and 2G count. 1pt G/A, 2pt W/SO.
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    I'm probably very down on MSL. But I'm not sure I'd go as low as low 60s. High 60s, maybe but I can honestly see him being a 70+ point player for next season at at least.
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    Be safe expect low 60s.

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    as long as he is getting time with stamkos he will be fine - 60's is safe, but i would expect more next season

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    I think he still has at least another 70 point + season in him. But I agree, he should be ranked on the coservative side at 60 points.

    He's a great player to have if you're contending. If not I'd consider moving him.

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    Dobber's guide had him ranked 8th in points for this season. That's 8th!! After reading the comments above, I guess some have concluded that with a year off, he will have forgotten how to skate!!?! "Expect low 60s...low 50s..." After a year or two, he'll have fallen to ~45--62nd spot in NHL point totals?? That's a huge drop. I think the shortened season/year off will do his "older" body some good.

    I expect him to hover in the 70-76 point range for the next 2-3 years. So long as he plays with Stammer that is.....if not, then i'll buy more into that silly talk as per above.
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    I wouldn't expect anything less than 60 points from St. Louis, I still have him pegged as a top guy to have in a points only pool. Below 70 points would be disappointing to me.

    If you're in a position to win, I think St. Louis is a great guy to have. One of the very best at his position, to own in a points only pool.

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    I see MSL's next 4 years as: 75/75/70/65

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    He'll be putting up 70 points easily for the next few years. His game has so much to do with hockey sense and that won't just disappear.
    10 team full keeper roto 4C/LW/RW,6D,2G

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    Martin St. Louis is more valuable than what you can get for him in a trade. I've found that youth is often overrated and old (comparatively) age is often dismissed as being an inevitability for steep points decline. I agree with the others in this post, I would be shocked if he didn't at least hit 60 and more likely 70 over the next couple of years. I bet you wouldn't be able to get an equivalent younger guy in a trade.
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    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    Martin St. Louis is more valuable than what you can get for him in a trade. I've found that youth is often overrated and old (comparatively) age is often dismissed as being an inevitability for steep points decline. I agree with the others in this post, I would be shocked if he didn't at least hit 60 and more likely 70 over the next couple of years. I bet you wouldn't be able to get an equivalent younger guy in a trade.
    Agreed.

    I would be surprised to see MSL under 70. I see 75 ish points for the next few then calls it a career. I don't see him as a guy who hangs around past the point of being elite. Dobber had him at 83 points in the guide and provided this insight:

    ***** St. Louis took a puck off the face in practice in December, sustaining a lot of damage and costing him five games. It made
    him angry. He had 22 points in 27 games before the injury, but 52 points in 50 games after. Yes, he finished at below a
    point per game for the second time in six years, but his final 50 games say otherwise – at 37 he still has it, make no
    mistake ******

    Age is definitely a huge factor in our keeper league. Prospects are overvalued and vets severely undervalued. For example, a guy turned down MA Fleury and Kulikov 241 for McKinnon, and Ray Whitney, who finished tied for 12th overall in points, is valued slightly higher than a waiver wire guy.
    Last edited by loco man; December 27, 2012 at 5:51 PM.
    20 Team Dynasty League - POINTS ONLY (Champion - 2017, 2016, 2015)

    Points: A (1) G (2) Dman G (3) GWG (1)
    Goalie: W (3.5) SO (4) L (-1)
    Daily starts: 9 Fwd, 6 D, 1 Goalie

    Guentzel Tkachuk Larkin
    Couture Palmieri Zucker
    Wilson Beauvillier Labanc
    Leivo Joseph Sprong

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    He's a 70-80 pt guy for the next 3years, but could be that way for longer.

    His game isn't going to fall apart with age (as many have said above). He plays with one of the best players in the game (Stamkos).

    And his drop this past year is also largely because of a randomly horrific power-play in TBay last season. He may not get back to the 37,41 PP points he had in the previous two seasons, but I'll wager he scores more than the 16 he had last year.

    Add 10 more PP points (which isn't unreasonable in the least), and you've got a PPG scorer last year...and then take away injuries and we're not having this conversation.

    One final point: Much like the last lockout actually helping Selanne b/c it gave his bad knees time to heal, I think a shorter season this year doesn't hurt some older players as much as we all might think. It's a half-year, which means they've had extra time to get healed from any nagging injuries, and also stay in fairly peak physical condition minues the wear and tear of games every 2nd night.
    Last edited by Reuben; December 31, 2012 at 4:50 PM.

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    I think I'll echo some here...

    MSL is a stud... he'll be 38 before the 2013-2014 season begins... that means that if he were just a standard stud, he'd have between 70-80 next season, 65-70 the season after that, and 50-60 at 40 years old and call it quits.

    HOWEVER.... he is no standard stud. He plays a 100% finesse game with little grinding. PLUS, he is a fitness guy. So my prediction:

    2013-2014 = 80 points
    2014-2015 = 77 points
    2015-2016 = 77 points
    2016-2017 = 72 points
    2017-2018 = 64 points
    2018-2019 = 57 points and retires at 43 years old and might even have another ring.

    A bit bold...maybe, and despite some love here... I don't touch him in my settings exactly because of his style (not enough hits/PIM/fights to match up with the 50 pt. players that do), so I let his name allow me access to the mulitcat studs during the draft.

    But since the OP here is looking points only and future prediction, MSL's value is High!
    10 Team H2H Points (Keep 1C, 2W, 2D, 1G, & 1 non-goalie):
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    With MSL, you got to keep him if your in a win now window, or trade him for prospects like Granlund and Scheifele.
    1) 16 teams full keeper H2H. Start 9F, 4D, 1G, 2 Championships
    pts: (D : 7 pts G /5 pts A), (F : 5pts G /3 pts A), (G : 10 pts W / 5 pts SO), (D/F : 1 pt +/-, 0.5 pts PIM, 0.1 FOW, 0.2 Hits, 0.3 pts SOG, PP and SH).

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