Can/should I get Eberle?

[newfcollins]

League in sig.

I'm interested in getting Eberle. I know I have the players to get him if I really wanted to, but would I have to overpay?

For example, is Ryan and Fowler/Johnson a fair deal (or maybe I have to add a draft pick)? Or would I really have to give up someone like Hall to get him?

[Axeman33]

I would have to see what the other GMs roster looks like (the one who currently owns Eberle). A lot depends on his depth and weaknesses vs yours.

Could you get him, sure. It would depend on how bad you want him and the situation of the other GMs wants and needs.

[hockeymanG23]

After a 4 goal night in the AHL I'm sure there should be a few GMs looking to scoop up Eberle.

I'm not entirely sure he's worth more than Ryan alone though, considering that Ryan has been denied 1st PP time with Selanne in the Anaheim lineup. As soon as Selanne is retired Bobby should be the first beneficiary of that role and he'll instantly be in the same position as Eberle, 1st line winger with top power play time.

I believe that in this regard alone these two players should be considered equals, considering that Ryan has great skills of his own to boot, so anything you're willing to trade beyond that would be a bonus.

[Kofax]

For some prespective, I moved Eberle 2 years ago in the following trade:
Eberle/Shattenkirk for Hall/S. Mason

I really needed the goalie help and a LW, and was banking on a Mason bounce back. That failed and I think I came out on the short end because of it, but Hall is a fair consolation prize.

That said, I think Eberle is probably as good as he will be. His teamates may elevate him another 5 to 10 points but I think you'd be buying high on him. There's a lot of hype out there right now and I think you would have to overpay at this point. I think Ryan and a Fowler/Johnson is fair, and probably an overpayment, but I think you might have a hard time getting someone to take it. You can take my advice with a grain of salt since I moved him off my roster.

I love him as a player and think he is dynamic and exciting and would want him in all my big games as an NHL team. That game against Russia? I will never forget that. One of my favourite hockey moments. Just awesome.

[Clinkers]

That said, I think Eberle is probably as good as he will be. His teamates may elevate him another 5 to 10 points but I think you'd be buying high on him

May I ask on what you base your statement? I don't think players peek at 22 years old? He played for one of the shittiest team last year and notched 76 points. Not much supporting cast, RNH and Hall in and out of the lineup. When Yak, RNH, Hall, Schultz will have a couple of full seasons under their belt, I fully expect Eberle to reach 90-100 points.

Back to the question, it would cost more than Ryan & Fowler. Something Like Hall/Fowler/Picks might work. But that is just me.

Good luck

[Kofax]

May I ask on what you base your statement? I don't think players peek at 22 years old? He played for one of the shittiest team last year and notched 76 points. Not much supporting cast, RNH and Hall in and out of the lineup. When Yak, RNH, Hall, Schultz will have a couple of full seasons under their belt, I fully expect Eberle to reach 90-100 points.

There are a couple of things that point to Eberle maintaining the status quo, or potentially declining next season as opposed to increasing his point total.

His PDO for one, which is the sum of a teams even strength shooting percentage and save percentage while he is on the ice, was quite high, 1028, while over a players career, they typically even out to 1000. His high PDO is likely unsustainable, and should decrease going forward. This is one factor that shows us he may have hit his upside.

If Yak, RNH, Hall and Schultz are all in the lineup simultaneously, I would expect the offense to be spread around more. While if one or two of them are out, more offense may go through Eberle. I do agree though that they will be a benefit as opposed to a detriment, which is why I could see maybe a 5 to 10 point boost in his totals going forward, but I would not bet on anything above 90 from him.

Eberle had a high percentage of offensive zone starts last year. As he matures, I would expect him to be given more defensive responsibility as well which may decrease his output.

I will grant you he is young, and probably not at his peak, but statistics suggest he will be unable to gain too many more points then he did this past season.

The majority of this is from Dobber's guide by the way, but these are some of the indicators that he won't put up better numbers next year.

[Buck Fush]

May I ask on what you base your statement? I don't think players peek at 22 years old? He played for one of the shittiest team last year and notched 76 points. Not much supporting cast, RNH and Hall in and out of the lineup. When Yak, RNH, Hall, Schultz will have a couple of full seasons under their belt, I fully expect Eberle to reach 90-100 points.

Back to the question, it would cost more than Ryan & Fowler. Something Like Hall/Fowler/Picks might work. But that is just me.

Good luck

I agree that eberle has not peaked, and that what we are looking at here is Martin St Louis v2.0. I am surprised how many doubters there are around here and dont buy into the advanced stats analyisis at all (the inevitable SH% decline part especially). He will be an 80-90 pt threat every year and will prolly have a couple of seasons approaching the century mark. He has simply excelled at every level, and led his team in scoring in each of his NHL seasons.. As the team gets better so will he. He is on pace for 60 goals in the AHL, again showing that he doesn't need hall/rnh to produce.

In a multi-cat league I don't think I would trade my Ryan for Eberle, but in points only Eberle is clearly the better player to own IMO and Ryan+ isn't an overpay.

[rataylor22]

Personal opinion is I don't think Eberle has 100-point upside, ever. Talent and as an overall player he definitely hasn't peaked, but as a points guy I just don't think he is 100 point talent. I have him in my eyes as a 70-80 point player, every seasons, but not much higher or lower.

[blayze]

Eberle is the real deal.

I would deal Ryan + OR even Hall for Eberle straight up without any hesitation.

(although you can probably get more than just Eberle for Hall given his perceived value)

[Pengwin7]

I'm an Eberle believer too.
I think his hockey sense is through the roof.

And I think that whole EDM PP is going to go BOOM.
Eberle is the only RH shot on that PP... a month or so ago I watched all of his goals from the previous season. All I can say is WOW. There is a reason the kid shot 20%. He knows what/where he's going to do with the puck well before he gets it.

I want him in my points-only leagues... just have to figure out how to get him.

I agree w/Blayze's post above.

[arctic_rogue]

I'm a not a believer yet. I do think he is very talented and is a 70 - 80 pt player... I can see his assists 45 to 50, no problem. At this point, I'm just not ready to attribute him to a 19% shooting % until he can repeat. Even a 4% drop in percentage will drop his goal output to the high 20s range (he doesn't shoot a whole lot). So that puts him in the 70 to 80 pt range.

I may eat my foot here, but that's how I see it.

[MikeTSchmidt]

It should be noted that only one 30-goal scorer shot a higher percentage than Eberle last year: Steven Stamkos. I'm not really buying into the idea he can maintain the .189 shooting percentage, but I do think he can be a point-per-game-player due to increased development and a better Edmonton power play.

[Pengwin7]

I hear you guys on the Eberle shooting percentage... but just head over to NHL.com and watch the goals. These are snipes. He can do this stuff again. He parks himself to the goalie's right and shoots with pin-point accuracy. As the PP gets better, he's going to score 15 PPG from that spot.

Remember Gretzky's "office" of assists (behind the net).
Crosby is similar, he parks himself to the goalie's right (as a LH shot) and feasts.

The extra advantage for Eberle is that most goalies right hands is the blocker-side. I mean, that's a huge difference, whether a shooter is shooting near-post glove-side vs. near-post blocker-side.

I think Eberle could put up 20 ESG and 15 PPG and that's 35G.
Combine that with 45A... and he'll be an 80pt player.

When we all talk about "shooting percentage" not repeating, we do so without viewing the goals most of the time.
And we assume (and are often correct) that there are several "luck goals" in the bunch. Trash left on the doorstep. Rebounds. Lucky bounces. Caroms.
I just don't see it with Eberle. The goals are solid... and he's selective, taking only 180 SOG. Most established scorers are well into the 200s.

Anyways - I'd advise anybody who isn't a believer to go watch his goals from last season. If you aren't impressed, I'll give you a free money-back refund.

[arctic_rogue]

I hear you guys on the Eberle shooting percentage... but just head over to NHL.com and watch the goals. These are snipes. He can do this stuff again. He parks himself to the goalie's right and shoots with pin-point accuracy. As the PP gets better, he's going to score 15 PPG from that spot.

Remember Gretzky's "office" of assists (behind the net).
Crosby is similar, he parks himself to the goalie's right (as a LH shot) and feasts.

The extra advantage for Eberle is that most goalies right hands is the blocker-side. I mean, that's a huge difference, whether a shooter is shooting near-post glove-side vs. near-post blocker-side.

I think Eberle could put up 20 ESG and 15 PPG and that's 35G.
Combine that with 45A... and he'll be an 80pt player.

When we all talk about "shooting percentage" not repeating, we do so without viewing the goals most of the time.
And we assume (and are often correct) that there are several "luck goals" in the bunch. Trash left on the doorstep. Rebounds. Lucky bounces. Caroms.
I just don't see it with Eberle. The goals are solid... and he's selective, taking only 180 SOG. Most established scorers are well into the 200s.

Anyways - I'd advise anybody who isn't a believer to go watch his goals from last season. If you aren't impressed, I'll give you a free money-back refund.

Quite the risk with that refund, Pengwin7.

He may very well produce that shooting percentage again. I just wouldn't feel comfortable paying for him as if he could maintain it. But it would be very nice for EDM if he could. Who ends up on their #1 PP? RNH, Hall, Eberle, Yak, and Schultz? Craziness!

[Pengwin7]

Who ends up on their #1 PP? RNH, Hall, Eberle, Yak, and Schultz? Craziness!

It is craziness... AND, the fact that Eberle is the only RH shooter of that forward-group is going to bode very well for him. He's pretty much got the whole side of the ice for his own... and all eyes will be on the other side of the ice with the lefties! Also, with Schultz being a RH defenseman, it means that Eberle should be near Schultz on the PP.


_________G_______

Eberle..................RNH

.....................Hall

Schultz..................???

I'm not sure how they'll set it up exactly... but the RH shooters will be on the left of the ice.