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Thread: Matt Duchene - upside still there?

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    Default Matt Duchene - upside still there?

    I'm in a sim league and my team is absolutely bottoming out so I am trying to move some of my older or injury prone players for some young talent.

    Starting point for a deal is my Kelser for his Duchene - Kesler is great and his defensive ratings really bump his value but I am concerned about his style of play leading to even more injury problems as he nears 30.

    Duchene we all know was hyped through the roof a few yrs ago and after his stellar rookie year I am thinking maybe this might be a buy low situation after his very disappointing 11-12 campaign.

    So does MD still have the 80+ potential we all thought he did a couple years ago? I am thinking of trying to pry a little more out of the guy, Niklas Jensen is one player he has that I would really like to get...
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    I think the upside is still there - his season sucked but a couple of injuries certainly contributed a lot to that suckiness. As a Duchene owner I would not trade him straight up for Kesler in a multicat league, for what it's worth.

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    There arenít many players in the NHL capable of a 67-point campaign at the age of 19. Ducheneís impressive sophomore season led to him being a popular early-round selection in drafts last year, with good reason. However, nothing went right for him in 2011-12. Knee and ankle injuries sapped his effectiveness. His shooting percentage dropped to .106, 30 points lower than those he posted in his first two seasons. That led to a PDO of just 974 for him. However, a much-needed return to health should mean a return to high-level production. Simply stated, Duchene is a great buy-low option (if you can get him).
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    I think he still has potential to be a PPG player. He is still pretty young and he will get better as he matures. I would look at making this move too as I dont see Kesler ever regaining his form he had a few years back even if he stays healthy and thats a big if.
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    From what I've seen, I'd expect Duchene to be around the 70-72pt mark for his career.
    Colorado has a serious lack of offensive talent currently. They'll fix that eventually simply through UFA signings and development of Elliott. Long term, they'll be OK. Short-term, without a solid center to play with Duchene will probably be closer to the low 60s.

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    Duchene is one month away from the age of 22. How many players, including Kesler, have shown the ability he has by this age?

    Duchene has shown a solid amount of ability and I really doubt that Kesler will surpass 65 points in any season going forward. The stellar seasons that RK put up were less talent in my mind and more pure determination and grit. His output was plenty impressive, but I really don't think his body can handle that for much longer. His last year was a struggle for him, and he is far from the first power forward type player to break down at this point of his career.

    Right now I would be happy to get Duchene for Kesler. If you can get more then good on you.
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    I would take Duchene over Kesler as well. Duchene will be top line soon enough, I really doubt Kesler ever will with Henrik in town, not to mention injuries as well.
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    I like Duchene over Kesler long term. I feel Duchene will be a 75-80 pt player. You mention moving " some" of your older players for younger players and getting a different look on your roster. What other players are you looking to move? You have other irons in the fire? Is this the only deal you have on the table? Have you shopped Kesler around the league?

    Anyway, to answer your question, IMO Duchene is a great young option to re-tool with. if the option is simply picking between Kesler and Duchene, I go with Duchene.

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    I'd look to add Duchene over Kesler in a heartbeat. Simple as that

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    If Kesler hasn't had the hard run of injuries, I think it would be Kesler hands down. With the multi-category setup, he's a beast. But the injuries does raise some serious questions. Especially with the recent reports (exaggerated or not) that he's still a while from returning, I think I'd have to cut the losses and go with Duchene. I think the upside is still there - he's still young, so I wouldn't quite on him or his potential quite yet.
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    I happen to like Colorado's offensive depth, especially Paul Stastny, Gabriel Landeskog and Ryan O'Reilly. While Stastny has been a disappointment in fantasy, he's money on the power play. Check out what Landeskog and O'Reilly accomplished in their age-19 and age-20 seasons, respectively. I think this is very much a team on the rise.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeTSchmidt View Post
    I happen to like Colorado's offensive depth, especially Paul Stastny, Gabriel Landeskog and Ryan O'Reilly. While Stastny has been a disappointment in fantasy, he's money on the power play. Check out what Landeskog and O'Reilly accomplished in their age-19 and age-20 seasons, respectively. I think this is very much a team on the rise.
    Hmm, I disagree.
    Because Colorado has a lack of depth, those young kids are getting top line minutes already.

    O'Reilly was #1 among forwards in TOI, 19:32 is already a lot to play.
    Stastny was #2, Landeskog #3.
    For O'Reilly, I think he has some solid numbers based on opportunity, but it's even possible that he never sees that amount of TOI again in his career. (!)

    There's not a lot of increase in TOI left for them to improve. Most of the time, the reason why young players increase their offense is due to being given more PP-time, more TOI... but these young Avs are already getting it. Which means that the only way they are going to increase their point-totals is simply by improving their current game.

    And Duchene was in the dog-house last year, getting only 16min/game... when he got almost 19min/game in his 2nd year.

    Point being... if Duchene gets top-scorer minutes, that's premium time that one of Stastny or O'Reilly or Landeskog isn't getting. There can only be one Line1 and one PP1 unit. So for Duchene to rise back-up, he needs to gobble some of the key ice time.

    Summary:
    O'Reilly, in particular, I think is a guy who will have a hard time repeating his numbers.
    And I've already speculated that Landeskog will have a hard time repeating his numbers in his next full season, due to similar reasonings.
    Last edited by Pengwin7; December 20, 2012 at 4:20 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PrairieDog View Post
    I'm in a sim league and my team is absolutely bottoming out so I am trying to move some of my older or injury prone players for some young talent.

    Starting point for a deal is my Kelser for his Duchene - Kesler is great and his defensive ratings really bump his value but I am concerned about his style of play leading to even more injury problems as he nears 30.

    Duchene we all know was hyped through the roof a few yrs ago and after his stellar rookie year I am thinking maybe this might be a buy low situation after his very disappointing 11-12 campaign.

    So does MD still have the 80+ potential we all thought he did a couple years ago? I am thinking of trying to pry a little more out of the guy, Niklas Jensen is one player he has that I would really like to get...
    I think the upside is still there. He's still young and will be coming off of a horrendous injury-plagued season. I think this year will be very telling. I think he's a great buy-low. Go for it!
    Last edited by One87; December 23, 2012 at 10:12 PM.
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    Joe Sacco is a big problem for him, let's hope he can get out of his doghouse this year
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    Thanks for the input guys - just pulled the trigger, Kesler and Schroeder for Duchene and Pirri. The guy wasn't letting go of Jensen unfortunately.
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