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Thread: Massiver blockbuster

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by yougo View Post
    Just to spice things up. I'm in this league, and it was a three-way deal!!!
    Just out of curiosity, what were the individual deals?

    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post

    Out: Kovalchuk, P Kane, Edler, Fleury, Barberio(farm), 2012 1st round prospect pick (8th overall)

    In: Crosby, Hagelin(farm), Wideman, Theodore, Thomas, 2012 2nd round prospect pick (24th overall)

    12-team fantasy points H2H, keep 17 + 9 farm; 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, 6BN, 9 farm... keepers not declared yet.

    My team is now

    C: Crosby, Malkin (/RW), Datsyuk (/LW), Cammalleri (/LW)
    LW: Ovechkin, E Kane, Jokinen (/C), Morrow
    RW: Semin (/LW), Doan, Havlat, Selanne, Hornqvist
    D: Chara, Wideman, Wisniewski, Bogosian, Kuba,
    G: Bryz, Theodore, Thomas
    Farm: Couturier, Schwartz, JVR, Conacher, Palimieri, Emelin, Nikitin, Despres, Kabanov, Hagelin, Armia, Wedgewood, Filatov
    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    Player - Fpts last year @ FPts/GP (Fpts 3yr avg @ Fpts/GP)

    Crosby - 50.7 @ 2.31 (98.8 @ 2.06)
    Wideman - 100.1 @ 1.22 (86.2 @1.11)
    Theodore - 92.0 @ 1.74 (79.1 @1.80)
    Thomas - 123.5 @ 2.09 (124.7 @2.35)

    Kane - 86.96 @1.06 (99.2 @1.26)
    Kovalchuk - 107.8 @ 1.40 (97.5 @1.25)
    Edler - 112.3 @ 1.37 (93.4 @ 1.34)
    Fleury - 127.5 @ 1.90 (117.7 @ 1.77)

    I know I got the short end of this one value-wise... as far as I'm concerned it was Crosby + plugs coming back my way. The fact that I like Calgary to make the playoffs gives me a little hope for Wideman, and Theodore and Thomas are at least warm bodies.

    The only player that really hurts me to give up in this deal is Fleury, but I'm fairly convinced I'll be able to recover. My philosophy in limited keepers is almost always "gut depth to concentrate talent, recover depth, repeat". I've found that I can almost always recover depth by being active on the wire and drafting strategically, especially in this league. How else does one end up with the roster I had pre-trade?

    As Horrorfan points out, because it's a fantasy points league, categories just don't matter -- only final FPts matter. It's also an H2H, so working the wire should be able to hold the team over week-to-week.

    That hits the nail on the head for me. I honestly believe the gap between Sid and the next best player in the league (I'll stay out of that debate!) is big and widening. I want to be on that train and was prepared to pay the price to make it happen.

    Sure, my goaltending is royally screwed, but it's a short season coming and injuries will make backup goalies more valuable. I'll manage, and hopefully find this year's "out of nowhere" goalie -- there's always at least one. I figure there's always a way to get by there, but no other Sid.
    I think you've summed it up well and agree that value-wise you did overpay, but you'll have to when looking to acquire Crosby. About your goaltending, it might work out ok in the short-term if Theodore can continue to hold the reigns for the most part until something happens with Luongo (maybe) and/or Markstrom becomes NHL ready. Also with Fleury, in the short term, might take a hit in value with Vokoun in town, reducing the number of starts so on a weekly basis I would guess he'll miss at least a start. But it's a bit of risk.

    Just curious - you mention 'in a limited keeper' - I don't play in keeper leagues but is keeping 17 really limited?

    But in terms of philosophy and your ability in managing the other pieces to improve your squad, that's entirely down to your own confidence and if you feel comfortable about it then you cannot complain about getting the best player on the planet. Would I make a similar move - not sure as it would depend on my mindset at the time but generally speaking I tend to go for more depth. However, giving up 'softer' scorers is a smart strategy, assuming those with more grit as similarly valued. Are they? Can you give some examples of lesser scorers/higher grit players to see how they compare to Kovalchuk/Kane?
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    "My philosophy in limited keepers is almost always gut depth to concentrate talent, recover depth, repeat."

    That statement alone makes me realize it's a better deal for you than I initially thought. That's my strategy in my limited keeper too.
    16 team H2H keep all - 1st Place in 2010-11
    C: Backstrom, Malkin, Krejci, Nelson
    LW: Parise, Franzen, Perrault, Maroon
    RW: Pavelski, Voracek, Versteeg, Fehr
    D: Byfuglien, Phaneuf, Burns, Weber, Suter
    G: Lack, Greiss, Kuemper, Dubnyk

    Prospects: Lehtera, Rattie, Komarov, M. Karlsson, Bjorkstrand, Ouellet, Stalock, Svedberg, Zepp

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    Quote Originally Posted by pull the goalie View Post
    "My philosophy in limited keepers is almost always gut depth to concentrate talent, recover depth, repeat."

    That statement alone makes me realize it's a better deal for you than I initially thought. That's my strategy in my limited keeper too.
    I don't think that dealing Fleury, Kovy, Kane and Edler for Crosby and Wideman exactly captures the spirit of that quote haha

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horrorfan
    However, giving up 'softer' scorers is a smart strategy, assuming those with more grit as similarly valued. Are they? Can you give some examples of lesser scorers/higher grit players to see how they compare to Kovalchuk/Kane?
    Great question. Man, I'm impressed by how quickly you saw into where the value is in players in this league.

    Dustin Brown: 54 P in 82 GP --> 105.2 FPts (1.28/GP)
    Ryan Callahan: 54 P in 76 G --> 107.7 FPts (1.42/GP)
    David Backes: 54 P in 82 GP --> 111.5 FPts (1.36/GP)

    Henrik Sedin: 81 P in 82 GP --> 111.0 FPts (1.35/GP)
    John Tavares: 81 P in 82 GP --> 102.2 FPts (1.25/GP)
    Phil Kessel: 82 P in 82 GP --> 99.2 FPts (1.21/GP)

    So yeah, name value misleads in this league. Having good peripherals (+/-, PIM, hits, blocks) gives a significant boost to some players, and seriously holds others back. It's not like the other GMs don't know this though. Those gritty guys are extremely well valued.

    On D, not hitting and blocking is the kiss of death:

    Yandle: 43 P, 31 hits, 77 blocks in 82 GP --> 80.4 FPts (0.98/GP)
    Shattenkirk: 43 P, 72 hits, 103 blocks in 81 GP --> 97.5 FPts (1.20/GP)

    Girardi: 29 P, 211 hits, 185 blocks in 82 GP --> 99.4 FPts (1.21/GP)
    Seabrook: 34 P, 198 hits, 165 blocks in 78 GP --> 101.0 FPts (1.29/GP)

    I guess it all comes down to my faith in my ability to recover the lost depth, and I've got plenty of that. I'll probably be hurting in goal for a while, but the fact that Cros has consistently been above 2 FPts/GP for the last couple years puts him in a class by himself. My conviction that Crosby is going to widen the gap between him and the rest of the top-tier players (Malkin, Stamkos, Ovy, etc) makes this one fairly easy to swallow, and I suppose if you don't hold that conviction then this trade must seem bonkers. I'm very surprised at how few people seem to hold the same view. Time will tell on that one.
    Last edited by fantasyhockeygeek; December 15, 2012 at 6:32 PM.


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    I think you did just fine in this deal given your analysis. I also think your goaltending wasn't all that good prior to the trade either so I wouldn't sweat that aspect of it. My faith in the Fleury being a top tier goalie in the immediate future(especially in a shortened season) is very limited. Unless Vokun really stinks, I think there's going to be more of a 1A/1B thing happening than most do. I really believe Fluery's awfulness is the playoffs last year will have a lasting affect on how long his leash is-hence acquiring Vokun in the first place.
    Nice job getting Crosby and filling out the Big 3(circa 09/10)
    F: P. Kane, Oshie, N. Foligno, Thorton, Coyle, Marleau, Pavelski, Dubinsky
    Steen
    D: seabrooke, Subban,wizniewski,garrison, Carle
    G: Niemi, Fleury,

    G/A-1 pt PIM- .25pts
    Win-2pts Shutouts- 5pts(2+3)
    Keep 10. Top 13 count (4 d, 1 g, 6 Frwd and next highest-any position)

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by horrorfan View Post
    Just curious - you mention 'in a limited keeper' - I don't play in keeper leagues but is keeping 17 really limited?
    You didn't answer this question. How much will the draft really have an effect since, based on your roster size, you keep 17 of 21 (excluding farm)? So in terms of fantasy relevant players (can be argued though), you'll have to rely more on the wire/trades, correct?

    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    Great question. Man, I'm impressed by how quickly you saw into where the value is in players in this league.
    Well, any points league (Points or H2H Points) rather than categories individually, and has PIM and Hits (in particular), needs to look at how much if affects a variety of players to truly understand value. I wasn't sure exactly how much it would affect it, since offensive production is still more heavily weighted.

    On D, not hitting and blocking is the kiss of death:
    As you say, the other managers understand the value of more grittier players. What about on defense? Is there anyone who's purely a hit/shot blocker that might have more value than Kuba? Or are those guys taken as well? Kuba had a solid season but not sure whether he can repeat if he plays with Campbell, compared to playing with Karlsson. He also doesn't hit much so his value is limited. But in a relatively deep league I wonder what players are on the wire.

    I guess it all comes down to my faith in my ability to recover the lost depth, and I've got plenty of that. I'll probably be hurting in goal for a while, but the fact that Cros has consistently been above 2 FPts/GP for the last couple years puts him in a class by himself. My conviction that Crosby is going to widen the gap between him and the rest of the top-tier players (Malkin, Stamkos, Ovy, etc) makes this one fairly easy to swallow, and I suppose if you don't hold that conviction then this trade must seem bonkers. I'm very surprised at how few people seem to hold the same view. Time will tell on that one.
    Yeah time will tell whether this trade actually improves your team, or whether your focus on Crosby will hurt your depth a bit too much. It could work out depending on what moves you can make along the way, so it's not one we can accurately evaluate one way or the other. It comes down to our own personal philosophies.

    Going back to my point of keeping 17 of 21 (not focusing on the farm, as they aren't as relevant for now), how easily will you be able to recover the depth you lost?

    And goaltending could hurt if Thomas retires and Theodore gets replaced at some point in the near future. The question will be, is your offense good enough to make up for the drop in goaltending fantasy points on a weekly basis?
    Last edited by horrorfan; December 16, 2012 at 7:39 AM.
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    It's keeping 17 of 23, so basically the bench gets thrown back into the draft every year. Essentially, in the draft you get your pick of risk/reward players (like Brassard, Mueller, etc, etc) that were drafted in the NHL above where they've produced. Other than that, it's spare parts.

    In this league in particular, I've had loads of success by working the wire consistently, packaging two #13-17 -type players for a #11-type, and repeating. Then a #8, #9, #12 for a #6 -- you get my drift. I'm a very active GM and ruthless about analysis and work hard not to "love" my players.

    No way I keep Kuba... he's an easy redraft. He was actually very productive last year based on +/- and blocks. In an H2H league like this, hot D come and go -- all it takes is a hot streak for waiver player for a string of games and you've replaced the production of name player. With forwards, that's much harder to do.

    The farm is another tool I've used effectively to cover for depth - in this league we can "cycle" from the farm provided we have an empty roster spot. The net effect is that if your farm players are producing (even modestly) in the NHL, you can treat the farm as an extended bench.


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    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    It's keeping 17 of 23, so basically the bench gets thrown back into the draft every year. Essentially, in the draft you get your pick of risk/reward players (like Brassard, Mueller, etc, etc) that were drafted in the NHL above where they've produced. Other than that, it's spare parts.

    In this league in particular, I've had loads of success by working the wire consistently, packaging two #13-17 -type players for a #11-type, and repeating. Then a #8, #9, #12 for a #6 -- you get my drift. I'm a very active GM and ruthless about analysis and work hard not to "love" my players.

    No way I keep Kuba... he's an easy redraft. He was actually very productive last year based on +/- and blocks. In an H2H league like this, hot D come and go -- all it takes is a hot streak for waiver player for a string of games and you've replaced the production of name player. With forwards, that's much harder to do.

    The farm is another tool I've used effectively to cover for depth - in this league we can "cycle" from the farm provided we have an empty roster spot. The net effect is that if your farm players are producing (even modestly) in the NHL, you can treat the farm as an extended bench.
    How successful have you been recently?
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    Won it the first year, made the playoffs every year since, and generally a threat to go deep. Last year I had embarked on a crazy-headed (though hilarious) quest to build an all-Russian team, which got blown up just before the playoffs because it was clear I wasn't going to be able to land the Yakupov, Galchenyuk, and Grigorenko picks.

    I got bumped first round of the playoffs last year (it was close) due to a very quiet week from virtually all my scorers.

    My team should be very competitive, on paper at least.


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    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    Won it the first year, made the playoffs every year since, and generally a threat to go deep. Last year I had embarked on a crazy-headed (though hilarious) quest to build an all-Russian team, which got blown up just before the playoffs because it was clear I wasn't going to be able to land the Yakupov, Galchenyuk, and Grigorenko picks.

    I got bumped first round of the playoffs last year (it was close) due to a very quiet week from virtually all my scorers.

    My team should be very competitive, on paper at least.
    It should be interesting once your new team gets to show what it can do and if you can keep making smart trades/pickups, which should give you a better idea if you can continue to be competitive. Good luck.
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    See? Recover through activity!

    Out: Couturier, Palmieri, Selanne, 4th round FA pick
    In: Derek Roy, Corey Crawford, Nik Kulemin

    Goalies now look like: Bryz, Crawford, Theodore, Thomas.

    I'm not a huge Crawford guy (few should be given his short track record and struggles), but he plays goal for an NHL team and at this point that's a big step forward for my team!


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    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    See? Recover through activity!

    Out: Couturier, Palmieri, Selanne, 4th round FA pick
    In: Derek Roy, Corey Crawford, Nik Kulemin

    Goalies now look like: Bryz, Crawford, Theodore, Thomas.

    I'm not a huge Crawford guy (few should be given his short track record and struggles), but he plays goal for an NHL team and at this point that's a big step forward for my team!

    Wow, nice rake.
    BIG, BIG thumbs up on those moves!

    (though I can't understand why somebody would trade for Couturier (youth) and Selanne (age)... two different trades?)

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    I'm mixed on it. I think Crawford is insanely overrated and is a mediocre goalie at best, and I think Couturier is hugely underrated in terms of production outlook. People worried about him being developed into a non-scoring two way player are out of their heads -- his game has always been defense-to-offense, and has the brains and brawn to do the same in the NHL. 90+ upside on that kid, even in Philly.

    Roy is terrible in this scoring setup because he doesn't hit, block, or get PIM. I suppose a minor rebound could be coming. Kulemin isn't keeper-worthy either.

    Nope, same trade. Selanne I think has great value in the coming season, then close to shot after that. Couturier has medium value next season, then growing. I actually hated to give both up for players I don't believe in -- especially given Teemu's production from the RW and Couturier's continued farm eligibility which lets you effectively extend the bench -- but they at least fill positions I needed filling. Good gawd I needed a goalie, so I'll settle for one as distasteful as Crawford.
    Last edited by fantasyhockeygeek; December 21, 2012 at 5:37 PM.


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