Prospect value: An Experiment (mods, can we sticky this please?)

[Ed.]

For some odd reason, I recently found some old hockey cards in a lunchroom at work. 2001 Topps I think they were. There was a Colorado Avalanche young stars card featuring Serge Aubin and Ville Nieminen. The blurbs on each suggested that they were bound for greatness, and in Aubin's case, the words "All-star ballots" were used.

It got me thinking. I know we overvalue prospects sometimes, and massively undervalue others, but by how much? I propose an experiment. A long experiment. Let's look at a group of prospects this week. I will give you 20 names, choosing guys of various ages, various rounds of the draft, etc. Some of them will be guys who are still young but have a lot of NHL games under their belt. You tell me for each guy how many points you expect him to put up in the 2014-15 season. If you choose to, you can also add what role you expect the player to fill in that season (ie. second line winger) and what other categories you expect him to excel in (ie. 100+ hits) Then let's hold on to this thread, and check back in the summer of 2015 to see how close we were on all of these guys. We can look at things like average points predicted for a player vs. actual production, etc. It's a long, drawn-out experiment, but I think the eventual results could be very interesting. Besides, we are still locked out, so we need to do something right?

[Ed.]

Okay, here is the list. Please predict the NHL point totals (as well as role, and other key stats if you wish) for each of these players in the 2014-15 season:

Gustav Nyqvist
Sven Baertschi
Markus Foligno
Eric Tangradi
Ryan Murray
Alex Galchenyuk
Jayden Schwartz
Corban Knight
Nick Bjugstad
Mark Schiefele
David Rundblad
Andrei Loktionov
Nazem Kadri
Cory Conacher
Matej Stransky
Griffin Reinhart
Mikhail Grigorenko
Tom Wilson
Morgan Rielly
Mikkel Boedker
Kyle Turris
Jonathan Huberdeau
Reid Boucher
Mikael Granlund
Nino Niedereitter
Brayden Schenn
Stefan Elliott
Brendan Smith
Louis Leblanc
Tomas Tatar
Adam Almquist
Zac Dalpe

[Ed.]

Gustav Nyqvist - 60 points
Sven Baertschi - 55 points
Markus Foligno - 35 points, 150+ hits, 80+ PIM
Eric Tangradi - 40 points, 100 hits
Ryan Murray - 35 points
Alex Galchenyuk - 75 points
Jayden Schwartz - 50 points
Corban Knight - 35 points
Nick Bjugstad - 55 points
Mark Schiefele - 55 points
David Rundblad - 35 points. PP spe******t
Andrei Loktionov - KHL
Nazem Kadri - 50 points
Cory Conacher - 15 points (30 GP, lots of AHL time)
Matej Stransky - 20 points
Griffin Reinhart - 8 points over the course of several callups
Mikhail Grigorenko - 60 points
Tom Wilson - 8 points, 65 PIM, 40 hits in 25 games (callups)
Morgan Rielly - 10 points, lots of AHL time
Mikkel Boedker - 55 points
Kyle Turris - 60 points
Jonathan Huberdeau - 60 points
Reid Boucher - AHL
Mikael Granlund - 65 points
Nino Niedereitter - 45 points, 150+ hits
Brayden Schenn - 55 points
Stefan Elliott - 40 points
Brendan Smith - 50 points, 100 hits
Louis Leblanc - 50 points
Tomas Tatar - 50 points
Adam Almquist - 35 points
Zac Dalpe - 35 points

[kevinsrangers]

Gustav Nyqvist - 55 points
Sven Baertschi - 60 points
Markus Foligno - 35 points
Eric Tangradi - 25 points
Ryan Murray - 35 points
Alex Galchenyuk - 65 points
Jayden Schwartz - 50 points
Corban Knight - 30 points
Nick Bjugstad - 40 points
Mark Schiefele - 55 points
David Rundblad - 50 points
Andrei Loktionov - 30
Nazem Kadri - 45 points
Cory Conacher - 25 points
Matej Stransky - 20 points
Griffin Reinhart - 20
Mikhail Grigorenko - 75 points
Tom Wilson - 20 points
Morgan Rielly - 35 points
Mikkel Boedker - 40 points
Kyle Turris - 60 points
Jonathan Huberdeau - 65 points
Reid Boucher - AHL
Mikael Granlund - 65 points
Nino Niedereitter - 30 points
Brayden Schenn - 50 points
Stefan Elliott - 40 points
Brendan Smith - 30 points
Louis Leblanc - 30 points
Tomas Tatar - 45 points
Adam Almquist - 15 points
Zac Dalpe - 25 points

[Dakkster]

Cool idea, but let's not sticky this for three years just because of that. Put a note in google calendar if you HAVE to go back to it, but stickying this is just... random.

Gustav Nyqvist - 75
Sven Baertschi - 60
Markus Foligno - 30
Eric Tangradi - 10
Ryan Murray - 35
Alex Galchenyuk - 85
Jayden Schwartz - 70
Corban Knight - 10
Nick Bjugstad - 50
Mark Schiefele - 45
David Rundblad - 35
Andrei Loktionov - KHL
Nazem Kadri - 40
Cory Conacher - 45
Matej Stransky - 15
Griffin Reinhart - 20
Mikhail Grigorenko - 50
Tom Wilson - dunno
Morgan Rielly - 55
Mikkel Boedker - 55
Kyle Turris - 60
Jonathan Huberdeau - 65
Reid Boucher - 10
Mikael Granlund - 60
Nino Niedereitter - 40
Brayden Schenn - 60
Stefan Elliott - 30
Brendan Smith - 45
Louis Leblanc - 25
Tomas Tatar - 40
Adam Almquist - 20
Zac Dalpe - 35

Edit: Also, shouldn't this be in the prospects forum?

[NikW71]

Fun idea

Gustav Nyqvist - 60
Sven Baertschi - 55
Markus Foligno - 40
Eric Tangradi - 30
Ryan Murray - 30
Alex Galchenyuk - 65
Jayden Schwartz - 45
Corban Knight - AHL
Nick Bjugstad - 50
Mark Schiefele - 50
David Rundblad - 35
Andrei Loktionov - 35
Nazem Kadri - 35
Cory Conacher - 50
Matej Stransky - 25
Griffin Reinhart - 25
Mikhail Grigorenko - 55
Tom Wilson - AHL
Morgan Rielly - 40
Mikkel Boedker - 55
Kyle Turris - 65
Jonathan Huberdeau - 70
Reid Boucher - AHL
Mikael Granlund - 65
Nino Niedereitter - 40
Brayden Schenn - 65
Stefan Elliott - 40
Brendan Smith - 45
Louis Leblanc - 30
Tomas Tatar - 45
Adam Almquist - AHL/SEL
Zac Dalpe - 30

[Ed.]

I am fine with not stickying it, but going back to it is kind of the point. It's not an experiment if you mix all the ingredients together, and then walk away before anything happens and never come back. I just don't want it falling to the bottom and getting pruned. That said the interest level doesn't seem huge, so no big deal if it does.

And yeah, it probably should be in the Prospect forum. Sorry about that.

[Dakkster]

Actually, if you want to go back a few years right now and not wait until 2015, you can do that

http://forums.dobbersports.com/forum...=desc&page=461

That's the first page in the Prospects forum, circa 2007. You will definitely find a bunch of threads where people talk about upside and whatnot.

Edit: For example, one of the first threads is about Johan Ryno, Jan Mursak and Igor Grigorenko, who would be the next great winger for the Red Wings? Awesome!

[PensInThree]

Gustav Nyqvist - 60
Sven Baertschi - 65
Markus Foligno - 45
Eric Tangradi - 0
Ryan Murray - 20
Alex Galchenyuk - 60
Jayden Schwartz - 65
Corban Knight - 0
Nick Bjugstad - 65
Mark Schiefele - 60
David Rundblad - 45
Andrei Loktionov - 0
Nazem Kadri - 0
Cory Conacher - 25
Matej Stransky - 0
Griffin Reinhart - 0
Mikhail Grigorenko - 40
Tom Wilson - 15
Morgan Rielly - 35
Mikkel Boedker - 50
Kyle Turris - 65
Jonathan Huberdeau - 85
Reid Boucher - 0
Mikael Granlund - 70
Nino Niedereitter - 50
Brayden Schenn - 65
Stefan Elliott - 0
Brendan Smith - 40
Louis Leblanc - 45
Tomas Tatar - 35
Adam Almquist - 0
Zac Dalpe - 0

[Pengwin7]

It's a fun concept... but "sticky"-ing a thread keeps it at the top of the thread list.
Usually, if I want to re-find a thread later, I'll try to use a word that I know I can look for in the "Search" drop-down menu.
Something like "predictions" or "money mouth" (LOL, that's a favourite of mine).
Just go to search and type it in the box, search "title" or "entry" and you can even search your own name or somebody else's.

For example, I went to search/advanced search and typed in "predictions" and searched "Titles Only".
I found this one about prospects, summer of 2008.
(Well, it's been four years since then... so this is a good example!)

Summary:
Use a keyword in your title (or body) to find it in a few years.
Try searching for your research... instead of waiting for a thread to blossom in several years.
DobberHockey has been around since 2007 (I believe), so the content is there - you just have to go find it.

[The Hockey Hitman]

Its fun going back looking at prospects who were supposed to make it big but never sniffed the NHL, let alone played there. Then you have the guys who were supposed to mega superstars who leveled out as 3rd/4th liners or after a while, simply went and signed in Europe or Russia.

Heres my crack at predicting what kind of production you can expect out of the list you provided, for the 2014-2015 season.


Gustav Nyqvist - 46
Sven Baertschi - 57
Markus Foligno - 43
Eric Tangradi - 28
Ryan Murray - 24
Alex Galchenyuk - 44
Jayden Schwartz - 27
Corban Knight - AHL
Nick Bjugstad - 45
Mark Schiefele - 53
David Rundblad - 31
Andrei Loktionov - 37
Nazem Kadri - 30
Cory Conacher - 25
Matej Stransky - AHL
Griffin Reinhart - 17
Mikhail Grigorenko - AHL
Tom Wilson - AHL
Morgan Rielly - AHL
Mikkel Boedker - 45
Kyle Turris - 52
Jonathan Huberdeau - 50
Reid Boucher - AHL
Mikael Granlund - 42
Nino Niedereitter - 35
Brayden Schenn - 47
Stefan Elliott - 35
Brendan Smith - 27
Louis Leblanc - 34
Tomas Tatar - 28
Adam Almquist - AHL
Zac Dalpe - 28

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

For example, I went to search/advanced search and typed in "predictions" and searched "Titles Only".
I found this one about prospects, summer of 2008.
(Well, it's been four years since then... so this is a good example!)

Jesus were people really that low on Stamkos? Maybe if the predictions had gone out to his 3rd year the numbers would have been higher, but the highest total given was 72 and the general consensus was between 55-70. Pretty general conservative prediction that most people on the forums give, but Stammer was a special player even as an 18 year old.....figured someone would have gone bananas with their prediction.