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Thread: Pricer's Picks - Week 9

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    Default Pricer's Picks - Week 9

    Hey everyone. I am back from the land of no internet and ready for more of you fantasy football questions. In most leagues we are only 4 weeks away from the fantasy playoffs, so it's time to start thinking about your playoff rosters.

    Let's get into it.

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    Do I consider starting Palmer over either Romo @Atl or Luck vs Miami? We start 2 QBs and the Raider are home to Tampa.

    In another league....assuming Nelson plays, pick 3 of the following:

    Julio vs Dal, Nelson vs Ari, Bowe @SD, Gordon vs Balt

    Final league, which is PPR....Finley vs Ari or Rudolph @ Sea. What the frig has happened to Rudolph btw?!?!

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    I know you don't really talk about nfl suicide picks but this week I'm in a bind. I'm trying to decide on which team to choose this week that you think will win. My choices are ravens beating browns, Seahawks beating Vikings, Tampa beating raiders , saints beating the eagles or lions beating the jaguars?

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    Quote Originally Posted by egstud19 View Post
    I know you don't really talk about nfl suicide picks but this week I'm in a bind. I'm trying to decide on which team to choose this week that you think will win. My choices are ravens beating browns, Seahawks beating Vikings, Tampa beating raiders , saints beating the eagles or lions beating the jaguars?
    Ya add me to that list.....from the way I see it. My options are:

    Det @ Jax
    Wash vs Car
    SD vs KC

    I hate picking road teams in this but I cant help want to pick Detroit. Also, since mine is down to only two teams, the fact that he has picked Detroit is intriguing to me seeing as we've picked the same team 2 of the last 3 weeks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by egstud19 View Post
    I know you don't really talk about nfl suicide picks but this week I'm in a bind. I'm trying to decide on which team to choose this week that you think will win. My choices are ravens beating browns, Seahawks beating Vikings, Tampa beating raiders , saints beating the eagles or lions beating the jaguars?
    I would personally take Seattle at home. They are an absolute beast when at home and having home field. I took them as my "Key Pick" this week in my point spread pool.

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    thanks. standard espn 12 team league, 2 rounds of playoffs each 2 weeks starting week 14. I'm looking good to make the playoffs. which D/ST and K would you rather own for stretch and playoffs: packers or giants or cardinals; tucker or zuerlein? I currently own packers and tucker.

    also, for packers week 10 bye, should i drop them to add a replacement d/st or should I carry 2 d/st for a week for the sake of hanging on to packers (and if I hang onto them who do you think i should drop)?

    STARTERS
    QB Drew Brees, NO QB
    RB Willis McGahee, Den RB
    RB Doug Martin, TB RB
    WR Brandon Marshall, Chi WR
    WR Eric Decker, Den WR
    TE Jimmy Graham, NO TE
    FLEX Torrey Smith, Bal WR
    D/ST Packers D/ST D/ST
    K Justin Tucker, Bal K

    Bench Heath Miller, Pit TE
    Bench Kendall Hunter, SF RB
    Bench Daryl Richardson, StL RB
    Bench Andre Brown, NYG RB
    Bench Jonathan Dwyer, Pit RB Q
    Bench Titus Young, Det WR
    Bench Ryan Broyles, Det WR
    24teams;27players(20roster,7bench)dynasty(full keeper);
    Cap league based on NHL salaries (not cap hit);
    pool points:
    F/C: G 4pts; A 4pts; +/- 2pts
    D(min5,max9): G 8pts; A 5pts; +/- 4pts
    G(min2,max3): W 9pts; OTL 5pts; SO 4pts
    extra points for PPP

    F:Kucherov,Kessel,Thornton,Galchenyuk,Hornqvist,Tr ochek,Atkinson,Jenner,SamBennett,Namestnikov,Point ,DShore,ZSanford,DStrome,ANylander,Guentzel,Kapane n,Kamenev
    D:Klingberg,Vatanen,Krug,Stralman,Pulock,Hanifin,W alman
    G:Fleury,Murray

    "It's such a fine line between stupid, and clever."

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    As my question is a bit more detailed and already have a thread on it, would you mind checking it out and let me know your thoughts please? Specifically, posts 13 and 15 give you the most relevant information from my perspective. Thanks.

    http://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?t=139998

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    Keep on trading or just keep what I've got?

    I'm pretty happy with my starting lineup right now, but I still feel like the team could be more complete. Right now I have stocked up on QBs since I dont own any elite ones, and I'm still in search of a good flex.

    14 team league, I'm tied for 3rd at 5-3-0. One guy at 7-1-0 with a good team, and another at 6-2-0 with a semi weak team. Eight teams make the playoffs, but the guy at 10th is 4-4-0, so my playoffspot is not secure yet.

    We start QB, 2xRB, 2xWR, TE, WR/RB, WR/TE, K, DEF

    My squad with normal starters highlighted:
    QB: Freeman, Rivers, Weeden
    RB: Foster, McCoy, Vereen (flex), Tate, Pead (picked up today, relasing on friday if SJax stays)
    WR: AJ Green, Nicks, Bryant, V. Brown
    TE: Gronkowski, Tamme (bye week replacement)
    K: Walsh DEF: Giants

    People have finally realised the value of backup RBs, so there's not much left on the ww. The top names right now are Draughn, Goodson, Tolbert, Peerman. Ingram, Miller, Pierce, B Brown, Royster and Leonard are also available.

    Pretty much the same for WRs and TEs with Bess, G Tate, Hizon, Hill, R Moss, JEffery, Sanders, Baldwins and Barden.

    So whats my plan? Stay put and wait for week 14? Drop Weeden and pick up some handcuffs? Trade AJ Green or something for a flex worthy player and a decent WR?
    14 Team Dynasty League
    5 C's, 8 W's, 5 D's, 2G's - 3 Prospects.

    Scoring
    F: Goals(3) Assists(2)
    D: Goals(4) Assist(3)
    G: W(3) Saves(0.15) Goal Against(-0.75) Shutout(2)

    C: Datsyuk, Grabovski, Backstrom, Bergeron, Bozak
    W: Kovalchuk, Ovechkin, P Kane, Hall, Sharp, Kessel, Nash, Silfverberg
    D: Enstrom, Letang, Kronwall, Faulk, Chara
    G: Miller, Price

    IR:
    Prospects: Galchenyuk, Nyquist, Shore

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    Quote Originally Posted by hockeyrobot View Post
    Do I consider starting Palmer over either Romo @Atl or Luck vs Miami? We start 2 QBs and the Raider are home to Tampa.

    In another league....assuming Nelson plays, pick 3 of the following:

    Julio vs Dal, Nelson vs Ari, Bowe @SD, Gordon vs Balt

    Final league, which is PPR....Finley vs Ari or Rudolph @ Sea. What the frig has happened to Rudolph btw?!?!
    I woulds bench Romo this week in standard leagues in favor of both Luck and Palmer. I actually have Palmer as a low end QB1 this week.

    I don't see how you can Sit Julio and Nelson if he is healthy. I would start Bowe as my WR3 over Gordon in a much tougher matchup.

    Finley is in the doghouse until he shows any signs of life. I'd go with Rudolph despite his lack of production as of late. As to what is wrong with him... I don't think there is anything wrong. He is playing as well as he has all season. Rudolph's value this season has largely been due to his touchdown receptions, which in recent weeks have gone to Adrian Peterson. Rudolph is fine, but we have to temper our expectations now that Peterson is back to full strength and being used more in the red zone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by egstud19 View Post
    I know you don't really talk about nfl suicide picks but this week I'm in a bind. I'm trying to decide on which team to choose this week that you think will win. My choices are ravens beating browns, Seahawks beating Vikings, Tampa beating raiders , saints beating the eagles or lions beating the jaguars?
    very tough choices. I would go with the Seahawks at home. My second choice would be the Ravens, and my third choice would be the Lions over the Jags. In leagues where I'm still alive, I'm taking the Packers at home as my lock of the week.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hockeyrobot View Post
    Ya add me to that list.....from the way I see it. My options are:

    Det @ Jax
    Wash vs Car
    SD vs KC

    I hate picking road teams in this but I cant help want to pick Detroit. Also, since mine is down to only two teams, the fact that he has picked Detroit is intriguing to me seeing as we've picked the same team 2 of the last 3 weeks.
    Of those three, I like Detroit as well.

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    do you like the ravens beating the browns after coming off a bye?

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    Quote Originally Posted by egstud19 View Post
    do you like the ravens beating the browns after coming off a bye?
    I do think the Ravens will win the game, but I must admit I'm afraid of what Trent Richardson is going to do to them. On top of that, divisional games are always hard fought contests, with the "better" team not always coming away with the win. Those are the main reasons I prefer the Seahawks at home to the Ravens this week.

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    Hey bud, I posted a question by realized after that I'm not aware if there are any rules - my first time posting a football question in one of these Q&A settings. Then I read that you don't typically answer survival pool type questions, so maybe my question was off-side too. If so, mind telling me what the rules are? tx
    24teams;27players(20roster,7bench)dynasty(full keeper);
    Cap league based on NHL salaries (not cap hit);
    pool points:
    F/C: G 4pts; A 4pts; +/- 2pts
    D(min5,max9): G 8pts; A 5pts; +/- 4pts
    G(min2,max3): W 9pts; OTL 5pts; SO 4pts
    extra points for PPP

    F:Kucherov,Kessel,Thornton,Galchenyuk,Hornqvist,Tr ochek,Atkinson,Jenner,SamBennett,Namestnikov,Point ,DShore,ZSanford,DStrome,ANylander,Guentzel,Kapane n,Kamenev
    D:Klingberg,Vatanen,Krug,Stralman,Pulock,Hanifin,W alman
    G:Fleury,Murray

    "It's such a fine line between stupid, and clever."

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    Quote Originally Posted by His Dudeness View Post
    thanks. standard espn 12 team league, 2 rounds of playoffs each 2 weeks starting week 14. I'm looking good to make the playoffs. which D/ST and K would you rather own for stretch and playoffs: packers or giants or cardinals; tucker or zuerlein? I currently own packers and tucker.

    also, for packers week 10 bye, should i drop them to add a replacement d/st or should I carry 2 d/st for a week for the sake of hanging on to packers (and if I hang onto them who do you think i should drop)?

    STARTERS
    QB Drew Brees, NO QB
    RB Willis McGahee, Den RB
    RB Doug Martin, TB RB
    WR Brandon Marshall, Chi WR
    WR Eric Decker, Den WR
    TE Jimmy Graham, NO TE
    FLEX Torrey Smith, Bal WR
    D/ST Packers D/ST D/ST
    K Justin Tucker, Bal K

    Bench Heath Miller, Pit TE
    Bench Kendall Hunter, SF RB
    Bench Daryl Richardson, StL RB
    Bench Andre Brown, NYG RB
    Bench Jonathan Dwyer, Pit RB Q
    Bench Titus Young, Det WR
    Bench Ryan Broyles, Det WR
    Great team you have there. As good as Heath Miller has been, I don't think you need to carry 2 tight ends now that Graham appears to be healthy and is past his bye week. Maybe you can package Miller with another player for an upgrade to your flex spot. I do like Torrey Smith, but if he has a great game this week then you could use that momentum to cash him and Miller in for another running back.

    As to your D and Kicker questions, I generally don't project those two positions because it's such a crapshoot week to week. Defensive scoring also varies greatly across league formats. That said, I do think it is valuable to look at the matchups for them in the fantasy playoffs. Speaking of which, I do like the 2 week playoff game format, but I really wish your league started in week 13 instead of 14. Including the NFL week 17 in fantasy football is perhaps my biggest pet peeve.

    Looking at the Packers, they get:

    week 14: Lions
    week 15: @Bears

    week 16: Titans
    week 17: @Vikings

    The Lions and Bears combo could a little rough, but the Titans and Vikings in the Superbowl are both above average matchups.

    Giants:

    week 14: Saints
    week 15: @Falcons

    week 16: @Ravens
    week 17: Eagles

    2 of the best offenses in the leagues in the first round of the playoffs and then two that can put up a lot of points in any given week for the Superbowl. I don't like it.

    Cardinals:

    week 14: @Seahawks
    week 15: Lions

    week 16: Bears
    week 17: @49ers

    That's a tough final stretch in both rounds of the playoffs. I'd roll with the Packers if those are your only 3 choices. More likely though you will be better off playing matchups each week. Do you have to play the same lineup during each two week period or can you play one defense in week 14 and a different one in week 15?

    Let's dig a little deeper into optimal playoff matchups for team defenses/special teams.

    Starting in week 17(which again if your league uses, I highly suggest convincing the league to make week 16 the superbowl week for next season) and working our way backwards, here are your best playoff matchups for defenses:

    week 17:

    1. 49ers (vs Cardinals)
    2. Broncos (vs Chiefs)
    3. Seahawks (vs Rams)
    4. Texans (vs Colts)
    5. Chargers (vs Raiders)

    week 16:

    1. Patriots (vs Jags)
    2. Packers (vs Titans)
    3. Dolphins (vs Bills)
    4. Broncos (vs Browns)
    5. Texans (vs Vikings)

    week 15:

    1. Dolphins (vs Jags)
    2. Texans (vs Colts)
    3. Seahawks (@Bills)
    4. Patriots (vs 49ers)
    5. Rams (vs Vikings)

    week 14:

    1. 49ers (vs Dolphins)
    2. Seahawks (vs Cardninals)
    3. Steelers (vs Chargers)
    4. Browns (vs Chiefs)
    5. Packers (vs Lions)

    I never like keeping 2 defenses, but in this situation I would advocate holding on the the Packers if possible. It all depends what defenses are available during their week 10 bye though. If for some reason the Niners/Seahawks/Dolphins are available that week I would consider dropping the Packers outright for one of them and just rolling with the new D through the end of the season. If you end up keeping 2 for week 10, I'd drop either Young or Broyles (probably Broyles) whichever one looks less likely to have consistent value after week 9.

    As for kickers, they are even more difficult. I generally just look for a kicker on a team with a high scoring offense or a dominant defense, preferably in a dome. GZ certainly qualifies. I don't think you can go wrong with either of those guys, but I give the edge to GZ due to kicking in a dome and his penchant for kicking longer (50+ yards = 5 points in most leauges) fgs. Tucker is certainly on the better offense though and may provide more scoring opportunities.

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