Goalies and Lockouts

[3rtpaper]

With one of my draft coming up this weekend I have been putting the final touches on my preparation and my overall strategy. I was considering my goalie situation where I already have Mike Smith and then it hit me.. I really haven’t considered what the lockout will do to goalies.

How will the lockout hurt/help different goalies? So I figured I would put my thoughts down here and see what others think as well.

System Goalies - I might as well start with the goalie I already have.. Mike Smith. He never was considered a decent goalie until last year, when he played for a defense oriented team. Most already are projecting a regression from last year’s #'s however it is generally viewed as a slight regression and many still have Smith comfortably in their top 10. I am beginning to get worried however; with a potential shortened season and little to no training camp will Pheonix be able to play the same strong defensive system that they employed in the past few years or will the lack of preparation really hurt their defense and Smith's numbers?

Athletic Goalies - While I don't think goalies such as Fluery will have better numbers than they normally would I do view the more athletic goalies will be more valuable this year. These goalies depend on their instinct and athleticism much more than positioning/defensive system around them. Instincts and athletisism don't suddenly go away. I feel goalies like Fluery will have similar stats compared to last season.

So the question is will the lockout help any goalies?
Lundqvist - It was hard think of a goalie who could actually be helped by a lockout besides saying they are helped because others are hurt more. That being said I do feel like Lundqvist could actually be more valuable to fantasy owners this year if that is possible. Lundqvist's only issue last year was he rarely played 3 times a week. In a shortened season where every game matters more Lundqvist should see his % of starts increase.

Thoughts?

[kevinsrangers]

add a couple more rounds to lundys playoffs and he will be getting a lot of games still. of course that assuming the NYR wiin it all.

[Pengwin7]

Personally, with the lockout, I'm shifting goalie value (in ONE-YEAR leagues) down.

We're probably looking at a half season, if we have a season.
Ryan Miller was a terrible goalie for the first 4 months of last year.
Bryzgalov was terrible for the first 3 months of last year.
Cam Ward was great in October & January, but not November & December.
Khabibulin was fantastic for the first 2 months of last year... and then fizzled.

In other words... there is a lot of randomness in short-season goalie statistics.
In roto, that makes them less dependable.
And, in H2H leagues, weekly performance is of the standard randomness.

So overall... if you grab a goalie early, you'll probably get worse-than-expected statistics and if you grab a goalie late, you'll probably get better-than-expected statistics.

Another theory I'm considering is to invest in Western Conference goalies. (This is counter to my own preference of grabbing Miller/Bryz in most leagues this year).

With the lockout, I'm wondering if the league gets going at mid-season... will the league try to restructure a schedule where teams play mostly inside their own conference? The offensive talent in the Eastern Conference seems more explosive to me - so grabbing a Western Conference goalie might be a nice consideration.

One more thing I like about Western goalies... later start times.
I drafted a baseball team this year with a lot of Western players and those late start times allow me to get starters into their line-ups more often. For a dad with a kid, trying to get onto the internet while my kid is up (until 8pm) is difficult. I often jump on there at 8:07pm (or something) and a game has already started with an inactive player on my starting roster! (and I curse!!!)

So... consider waiting and drafting middle-tier Western Conference goalies.
*Mikka Kipprusoff (if he falls)
*Antti Niemi
*Jonas Hiller
*Semyon Varlamov
How about THAT for an answer!

[3rtpaper]

I like it Pengwin7 I have a similiar draft strategy outside the fact that I already own Smith. I completely agree with how mid teir goalies bounce around a lot and there is absolutely no need to draft anyone not named Quick/Lundqvist/Rinne early. That being said the value of the top 3 goalies is increased, if you miss on your goalie in a short season (in a roto league even more so) you're dead in the water. You know what you are going to get with the big 3 and you know your points from goaltenders will be there.

At the same time if you don't draft a goalie til late and you hit on someone like Varlamov you're set. It really is a risk/reward if you have the chance to get a top goalie and you pass on it. I do agree though there is no reason to gamble earlier in the draft on Bryz/Miller/Etc.

Luckily I don't have kids yet so the west coast thing isn't a problem :-p