Originally Posted by
Pengwin7
Well, for my team strategy, here is how I approached the draft.
Team: Coutures Blocklagoon
Pre-Draft Planning:
1. I'm expecting the NHL to have a short season, if any.
2. Win high-quantity categories. This is SOG/PIM/Hits/Blocks/FOW.
3. Stream where the streaming is good.
4. Use +/- as a tiebreaker.
Application
1. Goalies
I didn't take part in the goalie run (to be explained) and nabbed my lower-tier goalies in consecutive rounds 6,7,8 by snagging Pavelec, Anderson, and Nabokov. That's 81 wins (cat) & 4600 saves (cat). Teams that drafted only two elite goalies are unlikely to get those totals. Also, goalie stats fluctuate and I grabbed three guys with pretty poor years by GAA & SV%. The Winnipeg, Ottawa, and Isle bluelines are all young and improving - which means these goalies are unlikely to do as poorly. In a short year, there is even better randomness of being better than poor... so I liked this strategy. I basically drafted 3 #1 goalies so I could finish top half in W/SV. LAST YEAR, their GAA & SV% would probably place me last in both those categories... but knowing those categories fluctuate, I think it's better than redrafting a Lundqvist/Rinne/Quick and expecting those GAA & SV% to repeat.
Possible regrets:
i) I passed over Niemi in round 4/5 to take Nash (LW) in 4.
ii) I passed over Varlamov in round 5 to take Couture (C/LW) in 5.
2. Forwards
My leagues last year tought me that high-quantity categories (SOG,PIM,FOW,BkS,Hits) are consistent and easy to win if you just dedicate yourself to drafting them. The easiest to win is FOW, by slotting top tier centres in your wing spots. With Zetterberg (C/LW), Couture (C/LW), and Vermette (C/LW), in addition to Tavares/E.Staal/O.Jokinen - I believe I'm a lock to be top 3 in FOW. I drafted 4 big goons in Dorsett/Konopka /Lapierre/Clarkson and that should give me a top 3 in PIM. (+ Konops and Lapierre rake FOW). Also, by drafting forwards in 13 of the first 16 rounds, I stocked 8 players with over 220 SOG, which is likely among the best in the league.
3. Defense
I drafted all five of my defensemen in the last 5 rounds and intend to stream these guys all year. The league has unlimited transactions & daily lineups, which means I'll be throwing new Hits/BkS guys in daily on D. Other teams that drafted scoring defensemen will be forced to hold them out of fear of having them plucked if dropped. If I roster a 100 hit/100 BkS D-man every day, it's the same as having a 200 hit/200 BkS D-man play every other day. So, really... adding up the quantity totals of my D-men in a predictive model is highly skewed, because I'll do much much better than the guys that are there now.
4. Good players on good teams.
Whenever I had a choice to make between two skaters, I hedged towards the one on the better team/line. People see +/- with a lot of randomness, but good players on good teams are going to do well in +/-. Eric Staal's (2nd round pick) is not going to be -20 this year and Rick Nash (4th round pick) will likely be a big PLUS player as well. Olli Jokinen's +/- should even be much better playing a top 2C spot in Winnipeg. I even drafted several tough guys on solid teams like Lapierre in VAN, B.Boyle in NYR, Clarkson in NJ. My biggest goon is Derek Dorsett on CBJ and that could hurt bad... but with a depleted CBJ team, he may even see top 6 minutes!!
Yesterday I gave my team a C-... but after looking it over, I like it quite a bit.
I'd give myself a B and expect to finish 3rd-5th out of the 14 teams.
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Not sure how much of an advantage though, given the busy night and achieving max games is (arguably) best applied on Saturday. Or at worst, on par if you have a full set each night.
) - rather not post it publicly.
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