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Thread: Which team to pick this weekend

  1. #1
    Thunder's Avatar
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    Default Which team to pick this weekend

    Guys,

    I need some help. I know nothing, nada, zilch about football. I don't even watch the Superbowl and I'd be unable to name more than 7 or 8 NFL teams. But in light of the impending NHL lockout, the guys in my annual hockey pool have decided to do a very basic NFL pool this year.

    All I have to do is pick a winning team every week (I can only pick a given team once over the season.) But like I said I know nothing about football, so I'd love to get some help from my fellow Dobberites and find out who would be your pick this week.

    Thanks
    12-Team Keeper. Points Only. Top 13 skaters (2D min.) + 1 goalie count. 2 UFAs (24 yr. +). Keep 24. 3 round yearly draft. G=1, A=1, W=2, OTL= 1, SO=2. Points carry over.
    F= Getzlaf, Toews, Spezza, Tavares, Seguin, Nash, Weiss, Wheeler, Callahan, Wilson, Little, Michalek, Boedker, Strome, Lindholm, Monahan.
    D= Karlsson, Yandle, Goligoski, Fowler.
    G= Lundqvist, Bobrovsky, Pavelec.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder View Post
    Guys,

    I need some help. I know nothing, nada, zilch about football. I don't even watch the Superbowl and I'd be unable to name more than 7 or 8 NFL teams. But in light of the impending NHL lockout, the guys in my annual hockey pool have decided to do a very basic NFL pool this year.

    All I have to do is pick a winning team every week (I can only pick a given team once over the season.) But like I said I know nothing about football, so I'd love to get some help from my fellow Dobberites and find out who would be your pick this week.

    Thanks
    This is something called a 'survivor' pool - you simply pick who will win and then keep going until someone is last man standing.

    I've heard people try to save teams they love, but for me - go with the biggest mismatch you can find, every week.

    Week 1, Oddsmakers say it's Houston over Miami - I'd take Houston

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    Picking New Orleans to beat Washington is a pretty safe bet too.
    Derek Reese - Future Hall of Famer

    12 Team NHL Salary Cap Dynasty
    H2H, Salary Cap 83.9mil, Player actual salaries
    2 Week scoring period
    G,A,PTS,GWG,PIM,SOG,STP,HT,BL,+/-,W,GAA,SV,SO
    Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalies

    F - Toews, Perry, E.Staal, Vanek, Lucic, Skinner, Simmonds, Wingels, Nielson, R. Smith, Gallagher, Kreider
    D - Phaneuf, Faulk, Brodie, Regehr, Stone, Guenin
    G - Hiller, Khudobin
    Bench - Bollig, Clune, Penner, Fisher, Killhorn, Johnson, Stalock

    Prospects - Petrovic, Bjugstad, Dalpe, Poirier, Barberio, Barrie, Olsen, Wey

    IR - Stamkos, Fistric

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    Houston or Detroit? Always pick a home team, preferably not a divisional game

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    Guys,

    I picked Houston last week and that worked out just fine. I now need to make my next pick.

    Going with DYv's logic (which I sucessfully applied last week), the Patriots are the safest bet. But I'm not sure I want to use them so early in the season.

    How safe are the Bengals, or maybe San Francisco?

    Rep as always.
    12-Team Keeper. Points Only. Top 13 skaters (2D min.) + 1 goalie count. 2 UFAs (24 yr. +). Keep 24. 3 round yearly draft. G=1, A=1, W=2, OTL= 1, SO=2. Points carry over.
    F= Getzlaf, Toews, Spezza, Tavares, Seguin, Nash, Weiss, Wheeler, Callahan, Wilson, Little, Michalek, Boedker, Strome, Lindholm, Monahan.
    D= Karlsson, Yandle, Goligoski, Fowler.
    G= Lundqvist, Bobrovsky, Pavelec.

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    Pick the team that is playing Miami...every week.
    14 Team Dynasty League
    5 C's, 8 W's, 5 D's, 2G's - 3 Prospects.

    Scoring
    F: Goals(3) Assists(2)
    D: Goals(4) Assist(3)
    G: W(3) Saves(0.15) Goal Against(-0.75) Shutout(2)

    C: Datsyuk, Grabovski, Backstrom, Bergeron, Bozak
    W: Kovalchuk, Ovechkin, P Kane, Hall, Sharp, Kessel, Nash, Silfverberg
    D: Enstrom, Letang, Kronwall, Faulk, Chara
    G: Miller, Price

    IR:
    Prospects: Galchenyuk, Nyquist, Shore

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    To be a little bit more serious, I would havea look at the Steelers playing at home vs the Jets. Revis is out and this is not the Bills defence. Could get ugly....
    14 Team Dynasty League
    5 C's, 8 W's, 5 D's, 2G's - 3 Prospects.

    Scoring
    F: Goals(3) Assists(2)
    D: Goals(4) Assist(3)
    G: W(3) Saves(0.15) Goal Against(-0.75) Shutout(2)

    C: Datsyuk, Grabovski, Backstrom, Bergeron, Bozak
    W: Kovalchuk, Ovechkin, P Kane, Hall, Sharp, Kessel, Nash, Silfverberg
    D: Enstrom, Letang, Kronwall, Faulk, Chara
    G: Miller, Price

    IR:
    Prospects: Galchenyuk, Nyquist, Shore

  8. #8
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    Week 2 Picks:

    Patriots- favored by two touchdowns for a reason. They are 10-0 in home openers at Gillete. They would be my number one choice.
    Giants- my buddy has a theory that the Giants just can't win when they are favored by a TD or more. Scary thing is, more often than not this is true. But I don't listen to my friend and how could the Giants go 0-2 at home to start the season? My Second choice.
    Steelers- No Revis could mean big trouble for the Jets D. Ryan Clark will play this week which means a tougher time for Sanchez.
    Bengals- I hate picking a team in a divisional matchup (let alone same state) but the Browns are without their best player (Haden). 4th choice (with hesitation).
    Chargers- Titans looked horrible last week and the Chargers D looked alright. If you like to gamble then my 5th choice is the game for you. I won't be though.


    In a survivor pool, the key is to survive. I know people like to "save" teams but if your selection loses this week, what good did saving the Pats do for you.

    Anyone still reading this?

  9. #9
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    me! I didnt bother writing it, but I of course agree on Patriots being the biggest favorites. I just feel like the Steelers is such a safe bet as well that he can "save" the Patriots for later.
    14 Team Dynasty League
    5 C's, 8 W's, 5 D's, 2G's - 3 Prospects.

    Scoring
    F: Goals(3) Assists(2)
    D: Goals(4) Assist(3)
    G: W(3) Saves(0.15) Goal Against(-0.75) Shutout(2)

    C: Datsyuk, Grabovski, Backstrom, Bergeron, Bozak
    W: Kovalchuk, Ovechkin, P Kane, Hall, Sharp, Kessel, Nash, Silfverberg
    D: Enstrom, Letang, Kronwall, Faulk, Chara
    G: Miller, Price

    IR:
    Prospects: Galchenyuk, Nyquist, Shore

  10. #10
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    I'm in 2 leagues.

    I'm taking SD in one and CIN in the other.

    I've played Survivor for 3 years. I've used the strategy before where you take the biggest favorite you have remaining no matter what. Didn't work out.

    I feel to win these things you need to differentiate a bit. If you just take the biggest favorite each week, assuming you do win, you'll probably split the prize pool with a bunch of people at the end.

    For this reason I'm not inclined to take NE this week. If they lose, I'd say at least 50% of my pool will be eliminated. Even if they win, and my team wins, I will have NE in a future week where 50% of the pool does not have them.

    I'm not taking NYG because a) they screwed me last year in week 5 vs. SEA and I don't trust them. TheWhale's theory about NYG losing when favored by at least a TD sounds right.

    I don't feel comfortable taking PIT vs NYJ either. No real reason just don't feel comfortable.

    SD was the team I liked taking when I looked at the schedule before I saw the lines. I feel the lines help justify my gut feeling.

    CIN I'm not sure if I will keep that pick. Something doesn't feel right about it. I may go with NE on that one to play it safe. My other alternate option would be HOU.

    I don't buy into the always take home teams, never take divisional games theory. I think it's an old wives tale.

    I recommend you go to www.survivorgrid.com to help out your future picks.

    EDIT: Mod should retitle this thread - Survivor Picks

  11. #11
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    I like to look at my picks on a basis of how likely it will increase my chances of winning.

    Assume a 100 person pool. Everyone still in.

    Say I take the Pats this week, along with 44 other people in my pool.
    13 people take Cincy
    11 take HOU
    10 take NYG
    6 take WAS
    3 take SD
    3 take DAL
    2 take OAK
    2 take SF
    1 take NO
    1 take PIT
    1 take MIN
    1 take GB
    1 take BAL

    (those numbers based on % of people that took them on Yahoo)

    We'll assume Pats win. We'll assume 1/3 of the other teams taken lose. Say NYG, WAS, and SF.

    You're still in a pool with 82 people. 37 of them still have NE available to pick. Intuitively those people's chances of winning have to be better than yours. And as said before, if you regularly just pick the favourite you may make it to end, but the split the prize amongst the others who follow the same strategy.

    Now assume you don't take the Pats, and survive. If the Pats lose, half the pool is gone and your equity in the pool has doubled. If the Pats do survive, your equity has still gone up slightly because you still have them remaining.

    Lastly, if the Pats survive, and your team loses, so be it. It sucks mainly because you don't get the enjoyment of playing survivor football anymore, but you can rest assured you made a good decision. Don't be results oriented. Know you made a decision that gave you the best equity.

  12. #12
    egstud19's Avatar
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    Default I'm taking chargers cause u say so

    Im in a pool for 100 a person and there is 4200 people in it..The pot is 420000 dollars ...I just changed my pick from bengals to chargers.. I took eagles week 1 ....maybe we should help each other out each week on deciding who to take
    13 t eam deep roto league
    Categories : goals , shots , assists , pims , special points , plus minus , goalie minutes played , wins , gaa and svptg...... Start 13 forwards , 6 dmen and 2 goalies

    Forwards - ovechkin , Patrick Kane , J. Neal , Couture , Boedker , mackinnon, Monahan, dupuis , hornqvist , colin Wilson , Tyler Ennis , Vermette , granlund ,

    Defense - doughty , yandle , Oliver Ekman-Larson Justin Schultz , gudas , Vatanen , Kindl

    Goalies- J Bernier , Bishop

    Bench- m. Schiefele , rinaldo , David jones , Frederick Anderson , Berra

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    Quote Originally Posted by egstud19 View Post
    Im in a pool for 100 a person and there is 4200 people in it..The pot is 420000 dollars.
    where do you find these huge pools?

  14. #14
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    Default Pools are in new York city

    Here is the site www.scottscottscott.com
    It's a very ligit pool and everything is in cash
    13 t eam deep roto league
    Categories : goals , shots , assists , pims , special points , plus minus , goalie minutes played , wins , gaa and svptg...... Start 13 forwards , 6 dmen and 2 goalies

    Forwards - ovechkin , Patrick Kane , J. Neal , Couture , Boedker , mackinnon, Monahan, dupuis , hornqvist , colin Wilson , Tyler Ennis , Vermette , granlund ,

    Defense - doughty , yandle , Oliver Ekman-Larson Justin Schultz , gudas , Vatanen , Kindl

    Goalies- J Bernier , Bishop

    Bench- m. Schiefele , rinaldo , David jones , Frederick Anderson , Berra

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    Quote Originally Posted by chowder View Post
    I like to look at my picks on a basis of how likely it will increase my chances of winning.

    Assume a 100 person pool. Everyone still in.

    Say I take the Pats this week, along with 44 other people in my pool.
    13 people take Cincy
    11 take HOU
    10 take NYG
    6 take WAS
    3 take SD
    3 take DAL
    2 take OAK
    2 take SF
    1 take NO
    1 take PIT
    1 take MIN
    1 take GB
    1 take BAL

    (those numbers based on % of people that took them on Yahoo)

    We'll assume Pats win. We'll assume 1/3 of the other teams taken lose. Say NYG, WAS, and SF.

    You're still in a pool with 82 people. 37 of them still have NE available to pick. Intuitively those people's chances of winning have to be better than yours. And as said before, if you regularly just pick the favourite you may make it to end, but the split the prize amongst the others who follow the same strategy.

    Now assume you don't take the Pats, and survive. If the Pats lose, half the pool is gone and your equity in the pool has doubled. If the Pats do survive, your equity has still gone up slightly because you still have them remaining.

    Lastly, if the Pats survive, and your team loses, so be it. It sucks mainly because you don't get the enjoyment of playing survivor football anymore, but you can rest assured you made a good decision. Don't be results oriented. Know you made a decision that gave you the best equity.
    This post, defining the consequences of the Pats losing BEFORE it happened - is genius.

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