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Thread: Draft Strategy........

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    Points only pool and only 1 season, no keepers.

    1 point for goal and 1 point for assist for any forward or d-men. Goalies get 2 points for a win and 5 points for a shutout so goalies are very valuable.

    Where would be the best place to draft in this kind of pool in a snake draft format and 10 or 12 people participating in it?

    What round and where should you target one of the top goalies in the league (Lundqvist, Quick etc.) having their value so high in this kind of pool format? 2nd round too early?.....I'm thinking now no.....or focus on getting 3-4 stud forwards first and then wait for a 2nd tier goalie (Price, Howard, Kipper etc..)

    Thanks for your thoughts.

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    Is it 5 points total for a shutout win, or 7? How many goalies do you need to have? Do you have a cap on games played for goalies? Do you need to fill out your defense, or are they grouped in with forwards? More info could help.

    I will say, though, that I participate in a one year league with similar scoring, and it seems to me that drafting in the middle of the pack is best. Not a rule, of course, as I've won when drafting last overall, too. In my experience it is critical to get a couple of elite forwards first. Even then I would stick to forwards for a couple rounds further, but you'll have to see how things are going in your draft and decide on the fly. One way to do it is to list the goalies in tiers, draft forwards until that top tier is set to run out and then grab the last goalie in the top tier. Do the same for the second grouping.

    That's more or less what I try to do, but a draft is so organic that you just have to have a loose game plan going in and role with the punches.

    Good luck!

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    Quote Originally Posted by CascadeFilly View Post
    Is it 5 points total for a shutout win, or 7? How many goalies do you need to have? Do you have a cap on games played for goalies? Do you need to fill out your defense, or are they grouped in with forwards? More info could help.

    I will say, though, that I participate in a one year league with similar scoring, and it seems to me that drafting in the middle of the pack is best. Not a rule, of course, as I've won when drafting last overall, too. In my experience it is critical to get a couple of elite forwards first. Even then I would stick to forwards for a couple rounds further, but you'll have to see how things are going in your draft and decide on the fly. One way to do it is to list the goalies in tiers, draft forwards until that top tier is set to run out and then grab the last goalie in the top tier. Do the same for the second grouping.

    That's more or less what I try to do, but a draft is so organic that you just have to have a loose game plan going in and role with the punches.

    Good luck!
    Depends on how many goalies you can start, but they seem to score the most points, so draft as early as you can. Kipper had 35 wins, 8 SHO last year, so that is around 100 pts.
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    I've been in 10 and 12 team snake drafts and have drafted all over the place. The rule of thumb for me is to take the best player available when you pick early on, the start rounding out positional needs. That said, if I could choose where I would like to draft - give me the 1st overall - I'd take Malkin at 1 then come back with two more studs at 24 and 25 (if 12 teams). Picking 1st gives you 3 of the top 25 players, including the main stud. If you could end up with...

    1. Malkin
    24. Karlsson / Letang / Byfuglien / Pietrangelo
    25. Quick / Lundqvist

    Then you have a monster at each position.
    8-GM / WK-H2H
    Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
    D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
    Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10


    Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
    Captain: Matthews
    (F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
    (D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun,
    Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
    (G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka

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    Since I doubt you have a choice of draft position, I won't bother with the question of preference (you can win a league from any draft position if you are good) - I think the key is to have a strategy in mind for the position you do pull - early, early-mid, late-mid, late.

    As far as when to draft a goalie is concerned, I think it depends to some extend on starting roster spots and roster size. As Cascade Filly
    mentioned, drafts are dynamic so it depends on what happens in front of you but with the points up for grabs here, I could see the guys picking 5 through 12 taking a goalie for sure with one of their first 2 picks. I would not be surprised to see someone take 2 goalies with their first 2 picks. Guys picking 2-4 might wait until the 3rd round if there are good options still available.

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    CascadeFilly you get 7 points total for a goalie shutout. ........2 points for the win and 5 points for the shutout so goalie shutouts are HUGE.

    Each manager in the pool needs to have 3 goalies and all are active at all times. So I think choosing at least 2 good goalies (starter for a team which will play 50+ games and is not a backup ie. Luongo or Schneider would be only good as a 3rd goalie) is key.

    Thanks Fungchen3, Shoeless and Cdubb for your tips too.

    I really like your idea Fungchen3 of rating players and putting them into tiers. Great suggestion!

    Shoeless the format of the draft is that we each pick 12 forwards, 6 d-men and 3 goalies so it's a little bit tricky to say which round do you pick up your 1st d-men etc.

    Will Karlsson have 70+ points agin this season? How many will Letang have with the Pens All Star team that they have with calibre of their players?

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    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    Agreed, but there's no way Karlsson will fall to 24 - especially with all the hype surrounding him. At best, I think you get him in mid-late round 2 if you're drafting in the 6-10th position, but personally, given the OP's scoring format, I'd rather take an elite forward or a top-7 goalie with that pick.

    In prior years, I've seen: Green in round 1, Doughty/Keith both in round 2.
    Well if Karlsson isn't there at 24, then this changes quite a bit of course. But IF he were, I think it's the pick that has to be made.
    8-GM / WK-H2H
    Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
    D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
    Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10


    Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
    Captain: Matthews
    (F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
    (D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun,
    Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
    (G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka

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    Quote Originally Posted by leroybrown View Post
    Points only pool and only 1 season, no keepers.

    1 point for goal and 1 point for assist for any forward or d-men. Goalies get 2 points for a win and 5 points for a shutout so goalies are very valuable.

    Where would be the best place to draft in this kind of pool in a snake draft format and 10 or 12 people participating in it?
    The correct answer is 1st.
    fungchen has it right below.

    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    I've been in 10 and 12 team snake drafts and have drafted all over the place. The rule of thumb for me is to take the best player available when you pick early on, the start rounding out positional needs. That said, if I could choose where I would like to draft - give me the 1st overall - I'd take Malkin at 1 then come back with two more studs at 24 and 25 (if 12 teams). Picking 1st gives you 3 of the top 25 players, including the main stud. If you could end up with...

    1. Malkin
    24. Karlsson / Letang / Byfuglien / Pietrangelo
    25. Quick / Lundqvist

    Then you have a monster at each position.
    This is solid.
    I agree in having any of the top two picks make me very comfortable. If I get #2 and get Stamkos, I'm very very happy. I'd honestly be a little nervous at #3 because nobody knows about Crosby's health and I have serious doubts that Ovechkin is done ever hitting 90pts again.

    Quote Originally Posted by leroybrown View Post
    CascadeFilly you get 7 points total for a goalie shutout. ........2 points for the win and 5 points for the shutout so goalie shutouts are HUGE.

    the format of the draft is that we each pick 12 forwards, 6 d-men and 3 goalies so it's a little bit tricky to say which round do you pick up your 1st d-men etc.
    OK, 12F/6D/3G.

    The key to any pool is establishing what "waiver wire value" (WWV) is.
    If each team selects these quantities, you can establish waiver wire value by looking at last season (or the season before).

    In a 10-team league, look at 2011-2012s #120F, #60D, #30G.
    How many points did each of these players score?

    At any given time, your selection should be based on the relative difference between what is available and that WWV.

    For example, if:
    #120F = 40pts
    #60D = 25pts
    #30G = 50pts

    If you are in the 2nd round and you have choices between:
    Forward = 82pts
    Defenseman = 53pts
    Goalie = 86pts

    Who do you take?
    Know how to do this.


    The other key item is understanding goalies.
    If there are 10-teams, can each team have MORE than 3G?
    If so, you are looking at a pool where at LEAST 30G will be drafted and possibly more. If this is true, you have to consider the WWV to be at the mark where goalies are drafted. If 40G will likely be drafted, set the WWV at that point.


    In general, I'd guess that goalies are incredibly valuable in your pool.
    I'd try to have 3G by the end of round 5 or round 6. That means you are only drafting 2-3 skaters in your first 5 or 6 picks.

    Good luck.

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    Quote Originally Posted by leroybrown View Post
    Points only pool and only 1 season, no keepers.

    1 point for goal and 1 point for assist for any forward or d-men. Goalies get 2 points for a win and 5 points for a shutout so goalies are very valuable.

    Where would be the best place to draft in this kind of pool in a snake draft format and 10 or 12 people participating in it?
    This is pretty much the exact format I specialize in as my large cash pools over the years have followed a very similar format and I've tried many different combinations with success so hopefully I can offer some detailed insight here.

    The first thing to keep in mind is that every draft is different, and you have to be prepared to adjust to the unexpected (sudden runs on goalies and defense being the main things to watch for).

    While there's no formula that will guarantee success, and you can win a pool from any draft position... I've found that in this type of format, there are *ideal* opening strategies based on your draft position. This is assuming you're playing in a league with smart, competitive players who will make rational decisions. Sometimes, irrational things happen, and you simply have to adjust on the fly (ie: watch out for runs on goalies!).

    It has been my own experience that the following strategies work best:

    1) If you're drafting #1-#3, the strategy is pretty straightforward. You're taking Stamkos/Malkin/Crosby - that's the easy part. Your following 2 picks (#2-#3) will make or break your pool. Ideally what you want is a top 4-7 goalie - we're talking Fleury, Bryzgalov, Luongo - calibre. If you can lock up one of these guys, then pick up another elite forward with your other pick (probably a Kane/Datsyuk - calibre guy). If you're unlucky and there was a run on goalies in rounds 1-2, then you'll have little choice but to take a Miller/Niemi/Ward - caliber goalie with your third pick, which is less than ideal because you're forced to take them earlier than they would otherwise be taken. Alternatively, if you're a gambling man, you can load up on serious firepower by picking up another 2 snipers, and pray that you can get a decent goalie in round 5, but I wouldn't suggest this unless you know the GMs well and know their habits and have confidence that there won't be a 2nd run on goalies. While this position offers many advantages, the drawback is that you simply can't get a top 3 goalie which is a drag since I prefer to have dominant goalie tandems on my teams personally, but you can more than compensate for this with explosive firepower through your forwards.

    Ideal outcome at this position: Stamkos/Malkin + Bryzgalov/Fleury + Kane/Toews.


    2) If you're drafting #7-#8, then this is arguably the hardest, but also in my opinion the best position to draft in. Why? Because it's likely the best position to end up with BOTH a top-2 goalie AND an elite forward. I've won several pools in the past years taking the league's dominant goalie at #9, and then picking up an elite forward at #15. If Lundqvist or Quick are available, I'd take them in round 1 starting at #7 or #8. If one or both of them are already taken (unlikely but you never know), then I would take Giroux/Tavares/Ovie, and then with #14-#15, I'd take Rinne/Fleury/Bryzgalov. Either way, your chances at getting a top tier goalie + elite forward are the best at this draft position.

    Ideal outcome at this position: Lundqvist/Quick + Kovy/Sedin/Tavares + St.Louis/Perry.


    3) If you're drafting #11-#12, then it's largely reactionary depending on what everyone has done before you. This position is probably the worst, because you will likely not end up with Lundqvist/Quick, nor will you have a true elite top-6 forward. All you'll likely have to choose from are the 2nd tier of forwards and goalies. If Lundqvist/Quick/Rinne are all off the table by this point, I'd strongly consider loading up on 2 elite forwards DEPENDING on who's available. Guys I might target are Ovie/Tavares (both will likely be gone), or both Sedins, Backstrom, and perhaps even Karlsson. By the time the snake returns to you, it's very likely a decent goalie like Niemi/Kipper/Ward/Miller will be available, so my suggestion is if you can't land the top 3 goalies I mentioned, then load up on forward firepower and wait till round 3 to pick up your goalie.

    Ideal outcome at this position: Tavares/Sedin + Kovy/Backstrom/Karlsson + Niemi/Miller/Kipper.


    If you're drafting #4-6, then the strategy is similar to #1-#3 and likewise if you're #9-#10 then it's similar to #7-#8, but you'll have to adapt more as these positions are less clear cut.

    In summary, I like drafting #7-#9 best in this format, then #1-#3 - either of those are solid. It is very feasible to win with any position except the last 2-3, where it is much more difficult (I can't recall anyone winning from positions #10-#12 in the last 7 years). Having said that, don't worry about where you'll draft because it's out of your control... just have a rough sense of what your strategy will be based on your drafting position over the first 3 rounds as these are crucial and will shape the rest of your team.
    Last edited by blayze; September 3, 2012 at 8:01 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by leroybrown View Post
    Will Karlsson have 70+ points agin this season? How many will Letang have with the Pens All Star team that they have with calibre of their players?
    I think he falls 1-3 under and ends up with 67 to 69 points. As for Letang, he has the chops to give Karlsson a run for his money if he stays healthy. My top 3 scoring D for this season are:

    1. Karlsson
    2. Letang
    3. Byfuglien

    I think it is important to land a top D because an elite stud like Karlsson COULD output the next players in his position by 15-25 points - like last year - which was a huge advantage.
    8-GM / WK-H2H
    Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
    D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
    Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10


    Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
    Captain: Matthews
    (F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
    (D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun,
    Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
    (G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka

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    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    I think it is important to land a top D because an elite stud like Karlsson COULD output the next players in his position by 15-25 points - like last year - which was a huge advantage.
    While landing the "top" D can swing the tide in your pool, I find it's simply not worth the risk. Landing Karlsson will likely require you to use your 2nd overall pick. Defensemen are very hard to predict and their production is very fickle... look at the previous year's versions of "Karlsson" - Green, Doughty, Keith... everyone who blew early picks on them got absolutely burned.

    Elite forwards are much more predictable in terms of what you'll get than elite defensemen. I generally don't start thinking about defense till round 4 at the earliest in a 12-man league. Especially in the OP's format where defensemen get zero bonuses over forwards, I'd be looking to acquire defensemen in the 40-50 point range later on (there's a much larger glut of these who can be had for cheap). It's a much better risk/reward proposition than trying to predict who the 60+ point defensemen will be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    While landing the "top" D can swing the tide in your pool, I find it's simply not worth the risk. Landing Karlsson will likely require you to use your 2nd overall pick. Defensemen are very hard to predict and their production is very fickle... look at the previous year's versions of "Karlsson" - Green, Doughty, Keith... everyone who blew early picks on them got absolutely burned.

    Elite forwards are much more predictable in terms of what you'll get than elite defensemen. I generally don't start thinking about defense till round 4 at the earliest in a 12-man league. Especially in the OP's format where defensemen get zero bonuses over forwards, I'd be looking to acquire defensemen in the 40-50 point range later on (there's a much larger glut of these who can be had for cheap). It's a much better risk/reward proposition than trying to predict who the 60+ point defensemen will be.
    Valid point Blayzer, but if you are in the 1 position and get the 24+25 elbow picks, one of them should be used for Karlsson IMO. Later on, you could always take a sleeper forward like J.Staal, who could see a 15+ boost on his stats. Just my opinion.
    8-GM / WK-H2H
    Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
    D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
    Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10


    Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
    Captain: Matthews
    (F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
    (D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun,
    Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
    (G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka

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    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    Valid point Blayzer, but if you are in the 1 position and get the 24+25 elbow picks
    Agreed, but there's no way Karlsson will fall to 24 - especially with all the hype surrounding him. At best, I think you get him in mid-late round 2 if you're drafting in the 6-10th position, but personally, given the OP's scoring format, I'd rather take an elite forward or a top-7 goalie with that pick.

    In prior years, I've seen: Green in round 1, Doughty/Keith both in round 2.

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    Blayze, Pengwin7 and Fungchen 3. You guys rock! A big thank you to each of you for your incredibly thoughtful and insightful responses.

    I will keep you posted how the draft goes after we have it when the season gets confirmed to "go on". Big rep to each of you. I'm sorry I'm currently at 0 reps, but will get you all once I have a couple.

    I look forward to reading more of your tips and posts in the near future.

    Best of luck in your fantasy hockey pools this year.

    Leroy Brown

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    Quote Originally Posted by leroybrown View Post
    Leroy Brown
    YW and good luck to you as well. But, I need to ask, is your name really Leroy Brown? If so, that's spectacular.
    8-GM / WK-H2H
    Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
    D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
    Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10


    Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
    Captain: Matthews
    (F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
    (D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun,
    Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
    (G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka

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