Dallas Stars

[NoWayOut]

I'm in the camp that thinks Jim Nill is going to wait until the trade deadline to make his move for a goalie. That's a dangerous game he's playing. But right now the Bolts and Pens have no real need to rush on moving out Bishop or Fleury. Keep em both and make another run at the Cup as both look to be the teams to beat in the East. If as the deadline approaches one or both is faltering, out of it, or in need of a player that the Stars can afford to move out, then re-visit trade talks. Risky as hell for Dallas, but such is the hand Nill has dealt himself.

I'm sure he's also gotten feedback from Jeff Reese that makes him think that Reese can fix things. Afterall, the Stars finished last season as the #1 seed in the West with Kari, Antti, and an undersized and outmanned D. Given the improvements made to the D there may, I stress, may, be some reason for optimism. Or at the very least less anxiety. To be honest with this much of an infusion of youth and inexperience I wouldn't be surprised if the Stars take a small step backwards. Not a huge step, but not a repeat of last season. Still think they will be in the mix for one of the top 3 spots in the Central, but more likely the second or third. Nashville has upgraded a lot, while the rest of the Central has stayed level or even stepped back a smidgen.

I'd say Nill keeps the lines of communication open with Yzerman and who knows what may happen there in the next couple of months. If you look at the moves that were made yesterday you have to question the decision making of a number of GM's. That's something that could work to Nill's advantage. He may yet find someone who's willing to take Antti or Kari off his hands if he will eat some salary, then the door is open for a Bishop trade. But it all hinges on that third unknown GM to take one of the poison pills. Otherwise wait until next offseason, hope Bishop is still with TB and not dealt in a sign-and-trade to another team then make your pitch for that SaT with Tampa or wait for him to hit free agency. I don't like the UFA acquisition route as it will be vastly more expensive, but try to work out a sign-and-trade with Yzerman. Tampa should be amendable if it reaches the offseason as they'd be looking at him potentially walking for free. At that point buyout or trade Antti or Kari. Makes a bit more sense on the buyout front as it halves the amount of money that stays on the books and the term, and their contracts are less toxic and more tradable with just a year left on them.

On a final note I do love the fact that Dallas stayed out of the deluge of bad contracts that were thrown around yesterday. Proof positive that no matter what is done to protect GM's from themselves they'll still lose their collective shite. Hamhuis was a perfect veteran bridge while the young guys get their bearings. But his signing wasn't without it's downside too. Once again, unless somebody is dealt before the season, the Stars are going to roll with 8 D. Bad, bad, bad idea when your trying to develop young D. Once again your going to have 4D vying for 2 spots. At this point Hamhuis takes Goli's spot with Klinger, Oduya and Johns reprise their roles as the second pairing, that leaves Lindell, Jordie, Nemeth, and Oleksiak fighting for the third pairing minutes. Nemeth and Oleksiak's growth was stunted last season by this type of arrangement and it's looking likely again this season. As others have mentioned it doesn't do anything for their development and/or enhancing their trade value if it came to that. From what I've read Nill and Ruff believe they need 8D with the WC and opening the season with so many games on every other night. We'll see what happens between now and September and October, but at this point it looks like a sup-optimal plan with so many young guys on the roster.

[NoWayOut]

The Stars wrapped up their Development Camp today and there were some notable players making good impressions....

The newest Stars first rounder Riley Tufte really turned heads. I've read some glowing reports on him in his first appearance. He still needs 2 or 3 years of college hockey before he makes the move to Cedar Park and the AHL, but so far those that were there in person are raving about him. Folks were really blown away by his hands and skating for such a huge, and raw, kid. Sounds like he's going to be a fun one to track as he works his way up the depth chart.

Denis Gurianov dispelled a lot of worries after his poor showing with Lada Togliatti of the KHL. Seems the reason for those poor numbers was landing in the doghouse for making it known he plans to pursue an NHL career. Once that news was out they buried him on the depth chart and did next to nothing to help him hone his skills. Petty move, but now he'll start the season in Cedar Park with an organization who's committed to seeing him grow. Add in a guy like Rich Peverly who's been hands on and very active in teaching the Stars prospects and things look like they're headed up for Gurianov, and his fantasy owners.

Speaking of that news about Gurianov, the writer who broke it Sean Shapiro is a must follow for all things on Dallas Stars prospects. Seriously he's a freaking gold mine of info and opinion. He writes for his own website, Wrong Side Of The Redline, the Austin Statesman newspaper, and Today's Slapshot among others. He also has deal through Patreon, where for $3 a month you can get all kinds of prospect reports and other Stars insider info. That just launched so the content is a little thin at the moment but will grow quickly. If you aren't reading his work you need to start, All of it, free or pay-to-read, is awesome.

And in good news for the whole organization the Stars goalie prospect pool has gotten a nice boost. None of them are close to even being an NHL backup, but it sounds like there are now at least some goalies to work with after the Jack Campbell debacle. Philippe Desrosiers in particular stood out as fans hoped he would, and should. He's firmly in the mix for the starting job in Cedar Park this season along with Maxime Lagace. Sean Shapiro noted that Phillippe has made big straides with rebound control which had been an achilles heel of his. Hopefully Desrosiers can land the starting gig this season for Texas. If he does grab the bull by the horns and succeeds and can hold that success for a couple of years maybe the Stars will have something...finally.

Devin Shore was very impressive in his return from season ending shoulder surgery last season. He'll be at or near the top of the list for any callups.

[Zorro]

Any news on Honka??

[NoWayOut]

No real news to speak of. Look for him to spend this season in the AHL with Dallas once again planning to carry 8D. He'd really have to blow up to stand any chance of anything more than a spot callup here or there. 2017-18 is when he looks to make the move up to Dallas full time.

[Zorro]

No real news to speak of. Look for him to spend this season in the AHL with Dallas once again planning to carry 8D. He'd really have to blow up to stand any chance of anything more than a spot callup here or there. 2017-18 is when he looks to make the move up to Dallas full time.

What do you think his stat line will look like in his prime??

[NoWayOut]

I'd guess 15-30-45 with the skill for more. Now that guess is based on Honka being a right shot, same as Klingberg, which probably caps him as second pairing. Normal caveats apply: How much PP time and on which unit? Could he jump Klingberg to play top pairing minutes? Could he be effective playing offhanded and play alongside Klingberg? The first one is a mystery, the other two aren't very likely to happen.

Klingberg and him sharing the same handedness is probably the biggest impediment to Honka putting up the kind of numbers he's really capable of as the top spot on the right is occupied, and looks to be for quite some time. And don't overlook Johns either. Johns isn't in an offensive force like Honka and Klingberg, but he has the makings of a difference maker in other areas, and he's also right handed. He's in a position to challenge for those second pairing minutes though he could also be a very, very good third pairing D. None of this takes anything away from Honka, but it does put his fantasy owners in position where they need to temper expectations.

[Sulla]

And wait another year... You make so,e really good points - shame as I thought he'd be up this season and this would be his transition year but think it makes sense that he stays down

[Zorro]

I'd guess 15-30-45 with the skill for more. Now that guess is based on Honka being a right shot, same as Klingberg, which probably caps him as second pairing. Normal caveats apply: How much PP time and on which unit? Could he jump Klingberg to play top pairing minutes? Could he be effective playing offhanded and play alongside Klingberg? The first one is a mystery, the other two aren't very likely to happen.

Klingberg and him sharing the same handedness is probably the biggest impediment to Honka putting up the kind of numbers he's really capable of as the top spot on the right is occupied, and looks to be for quite some time. And don't overlook Johns either. Johns isn't in an offensive force like Honka and Klingberg, but he has the makings of a difference maker in other areas, and he's also right handed. He's in a position to challenge for those second pairing minutes though he could also be a very, very good third pairing D. None of this takes anything away from Honka, but it does put his fantasy owners in position where they need to temper expectations.

Thank you for this post, very detailed and definitely above and beyond.. Much appreciated!!

[NoWayOut]

Your welcome Zorro. I do love to talk all things Dallas Stars.

I gave this some more thought and remembered there is an angle where Honka and Klingberg both being right handed can work out for all parties. If the Stars eventually back away from the 4F/1D PP1 and go back to a traditional 3/2 you can put Klinger on one point Honka on the other. Benefit there is whoever is on the left point, when he's on his forehand he's setup perfectly to unleash a one-timer off of a D-to-D pass. For both of them their shot is among their best traits and for fantasy purposes a point is a point on the PP however it comes. Real world NHL too for that matter.

I still think Dallas will split them at even strength but that PP arrangement may give Honka owners a bit of a boost as it opens up time with the top unit.

[deantime419]

I'm curious to know how hard Dallas has tried to improve their goaltending.
I thought Lehtonen for Moulson made a lot of sense (still does but BUF seems content rolling Lehner and Nilsson).
Then eat half of Niemi's salary and add picks to get Fleury or Bishop.

[Avalanche_Ambush]

what are your thoughts on Ritchie and nichushkin? nichushkin looks to be trending toward the possible bust territory.

[newfcollins]

I'm curious to know how hard Dallas has tried to improve their goaltending.
I thought Lehtonen for Moulson made a lot of sense (still does but BUF seems content rolling Lehner and Nilsson).
Then eat half of Niemi's salary and add picks to get Fleury or Bishop.

You make it sound easy. Buffalo had no need to trade for Lehtonen. And why would Pittsburgh or Tampa downgrade that much in net for picks?

[NoWayOut]

I'm curious to know how hard Dallas has tried to improve their goaltending.
I thought Lehtonen for Moulson made a lot of sense (still does but BUF seems content rolling Lehner and Nilsson).
Then eat half of Niemi's salary and add picks to get Fleury or Bishop.

I think Jim Nill has been working hard to fix the goalie situation, but he's got one hand tied behind his back. Signing Niemi has been one of the very few missteps he's had and unfortunately it's that very contract that has him in this bind. Publicly Nill has said he has no problems rolling with Antti and Kari again this season. But that's what he's supposed to say when he talks to the media. I can't remember which member of the media said it but they nailed it: "Above water Jim Nill is calm and peaceful, under the surface he's paddling for all he's worth".

Daryl Reaugh is fond of saying: "Good goaltending will cover up bad defense and good defense will mask bad goaltending". Well for the Stars they often found themselves getting that all twisted around. The defense last season was much better than the previous few years, but still in need of work. This offseason has seen the Stars totally remake their D core with mostly homegrown talent. So we go back to that quote from Razor and look at things as they stand now for the Stars. Jim Nill knows changes have to be made but how do you trade one or both of Antti and Kari with their cap hits and crappy play? He can't, but at the same time he has an in-house fix that he can try to help improve the D in front of his goalies, the second half of that quote.

It makes good sense for Dallas as they are just entering their window to compete. Why tie yourself to four years of roughly $2mil of cap space for a player who you bought out when you can promote your younger D and hope they will fulfill their potential and help bail out the goalies. If you go that route and can be in a position to make a run at the playoffs when the trade deadline comes then you can go out and find your future goalie, Bishop most likely. The big benefit there is now Kari and Antti only have one season and change left on their contracts and thus become more palatable to other GM's. And if this plays out right and the D really steps up, Kari and/or Antti post improved numbers because of better defense in front of them, which makes them all the easier to move to make room for a new #1.

Loads of risk for the Stars as it could all blow up in their face. But this is where the Niemi signing has left them, backed into a corner and no easy route out of that corner. It's been strongly hinted in the media that this is one move that Jim Nill would really love to have back. All GM's have a few moves they regret so you just make the best of it. That's where the Stars are right now. Jim Nill has quietly been a master capologist, and positioned the Stars well to be buyers when some contenders are forced to be sellers because of the cap. Why deviate from that strategy if there is a way to try a cheap in house fix. Those young D are ready to make the move up to the show anyhow and it buys time to make a deal for a goalie that benefits them now and down the road.

[NoWayOut]

what are your thoughts on Ritchie and nichushkin? nichushkin looks to be trending toward the possible bust territory.

Injuries have played havoc for both. Ritchie would have been major player for a spot with the Stars last season but that wrist injury and resulting surgery took him out and Mattias Janmark stepped up and made the most of the opportunity. By the time Ritchie came back Janmark was firmly entrenched. With Moen and Sceviour gone now is Ritchie's shot to get regular playing time. I fully expect he'll step it up and make himself at home. He better because he's got guys like Dickinson, Shore, Gurianov, and MacKenzie breathing down his neck.

This could be the make or break year for Nichushkin in Dallas. He doesn't need to have a full fledged break out, but he needs to right the ship and show real progress. At his age and where he is in his development that season missed with the hip injury has really messed him up. The Stars are still by all accounts high on him so he'll be given plenty of chances to succeed. Put me in the camp that thinks he still can turn it around but this season is gonna be telling. If he repeats the struggles he may be headed toward the road to bustville.

[NoWayOut]

You've got to ask, who did the Stars piss off to drop the injury hammer on 'em like this? First Jamie over the summer. Then Seguin, Hemsky, and Faksa at the WCoH. Then Eakin, Shore, Dickinson, and now Janmark. Not sure if I missed any others. Most everybody will be back in time for the season, or so word out of Dallas says. Faksa already is, and looking primed for a good season. Eakin will be out for a bit yet, and no word on Janmark other than he was spotted on crutches today after not playing last night in Colorado. Not a good omen heading into the season.