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Thread: Extra games matter that much?

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    Yardsale's Avatar
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    Default Extra games matter that much?

    Been lurking on the boards for some time now, and the insight here is killer. I'm categorically murdering my fellow GMs because of Dobberdom - thanks.


    Blatant flattery aside, I've been reading posts about GM's trading players so they can increase total number of games in the playoffs.

    Does a one or two game difference have a great effect? This is my first time playing H2H, only previously played points-only pools.

    Just wondering.
    1-Year 12-team H2H: G/A/+-/PIM/PPP/SOG/SH%/FW/HIT/BLK GS/W/GAA/SV/SV%/SHO

    C: Giroux, Backstrom, Hanzal, Ribeiro
    LW: Nash, Ladd
    RW: Wheeler, Vrbata, Hornqvist
    D: Keith, Streit, Franson, Gardiner
    G: Lunquist, Mason, Luongo
    IR: Stepan

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    Hey welcome to the boards!

    I think that it does... 1 or 2 games could decide a category which ultimately decides a H2H series...

    I mean take this for example if you need 10 G for the win in that category, you have a much better chance achieving that with 30 games than you would with 28 right? It's pretty simple logic really. Same could be said for A, PIMs, SOG, PPP... so having more games is definitely more advantageous than having less...
    Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12

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    I am going to say it can make a difference. I think you have to be careful in the player you go after and the one you trade away.

    Easily acquired stats like hits, sog, fow, blocks, saves are pretty obviously well served by having players who get the additional games.

    I think one position that it can make a pretty big difference in is goal - grabbing an extra start a week can really pay handsomely.

    Here's what I do when I am considering the possibility of a strategic trade like this. I obviously check the shedules to see who has more games but then I also look at the strength of their schedules for the playoffs.

    Using Ryan's example - is it better to have a skater with 10 games in the playoffs who faces Rinne, Lundqvist, Quick and Luongo twice or a skater who has only 8 games who faces TB, Columbus, Isles and the Habs twice?

    There is no precise formula for sure but weighing players production per game and the number of games to play in the playoffs and their competition remaining will give you a sense of whether you stand to gain a little (that is usually how much it is for skaters) - a little can make a difference in tight competition.

    What are your stats category weaknesses through the regular season? Do you happen to be in Yahoo with the weeks of 23, 24 and 25 being the playoffs? You are going to hurt at C with Toews and O'Reilly only having 2 games each, if that is the case.
    Last edited by Shoeless; February 24, 2012 at 4:22 AM.
    Yahoo 12 team 1 year roto - 82 game max/position
    G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,SOG,FOW,Hits,Blocks,W,GAA,SV%,Saves

    3C: Thornton, Pavelski, Datsyuk
    3RW: Ovechkin, Gaborik, Kesler
    3LW: Forsberg, Ladd, Tatar
    5D: Yandle, Vatanen, Streit, Russell, Ekblad
    2G: Bishop, F. Andersen
    5B: Strome, Hartnell, Eakin, Svedberg, Ward
    2IR: Gustavsson, Neal

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shoeless View Post
    I am going to say it can make a difference. I think you have to be careful in the player you go after and the one you trade away.

    Easily acquired stats like hits, sog, fow, blocks, saves are pretty obviously well served by having players who get the additional games.

    I think one position that it can make a pretty big difference in is goal - grabbing an extra start a week can really pay handsomely.

    Here's what I do when I am considering the possibility of a strategic trade like this. I obviously check the shedules to see who has more games but then I also look at the strength of their schedules for the playoffs.

    Using Ryan's example - is it better to have a skater with 10 games in the playoffs who faces Rinne, Lundqvist, Quick and Luongo twice or a skater who has only 8 games who faces TB, Columbus, Isles and the Habs twice?

    There is no precise formula for sure but weighing players production per game and the number of games to play in the playoffs and their competition remaining will give you a sense of whether you stand to gain a little (that is usually how much it is for skaters) - a little can make a difference in tight competition.

    What are your stats category weaknesses through the regular season? Do you happen to be in Yahoo with the weeks of 23, 24 and 25 being the playoffs? You are going to hurt at C with Toews and O'Reilly only having 2 games each, if that is the case.
    Hmmm that might be interesting to analyze... I think I might do some research into that topic for my next article on Tuesday
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yardsale View Post
    Been lurking on the boards for some time now, and the insight here is killer. I'm categorically murdering my fellow GMs because of Dobberdom - thanks.


    Blatant flattery aside, I've been reading posts about GM's trading players so they can increase total number of games in the playoffs.

    Does a one or two game difference have a great effect? This is my first time playing H2H, only previously played points-only pools.

    Just wondering.
    wecome to the boards!

    i think it reallly does..h2h is more of a luck game as it is week to week...and u can see that from week to week,players productions fluctauate a lot...so trading for that extra game COULD make a big difference..imo...

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    Be interested to see what you come up with Ryan. I'm not in any 1 year H2H leagues this year. so I haven't been focusing on this issue as much as I have in the past. There is so much data available now and so many tools - it must be possible to come up with some kind of indicator of trade values based on these factors - split stats should be useful one would think.
    Yahoo 12 team 1 year roto - 82 game max/position
    G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,SOG,FOW,Hits,Blocks,W,GAA,SV%,Saves

    3C: Thornton, Pavelski, Datsyuk
    3RW: Ovechkin, Gaborik, Kesler
    3LW: Forsberg, Ladd, Tatar
    5D: Yandle, Vatanen, Streit, Russell, Ekblad
    2G: Bishop, F. Andersen
    5B: Strome, Hartnell, Eakin, Svedberg, Ward
    2IR: Gustavsson, Neal

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    I really appreciate the responses, Gotlaid, Shoeless and soconfused. (I'm sorry but together, in order, ironically enough, you sound like a good Friday night.)

    I realize that having Toews and O'Reilly can hurt me with the 4 game 2 game, 3 game 2 game schedules, respectively, for the Yahoo format (which you - rightly - guessed I am part of.) Especially so, because I expect a by first round - leaving me to contend only in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

    This is kind of why I asked the question. Their play offers me solid benefits in certain categories, so I'm hesitant to make "lateral" trades - which aren't so lateral because certain categories (FW, for example) may suffer as a result.

    Do you have any recommendations for statistcal analaysis? Right now, I'm trying to evaluate averages for cats to determine what will happen if I make "lateral trades" (lateral trades for me means equal expected point production + production in similar number of cats, weighing in value of unit per production per cat) for more games.

    I understand home-away splits, and guaging that against their schedule for points, but how do you factor in "hot-streaks" and "playoff-runs" in comparison to their yearly average?

    I'm a little too used to having numbers "market correct" themselves over the course of the season because of prior experience in points-only leagues.

    (I'm not asking you to divulge state secrets, but I'm a big numberhead, and I love mathematical approaches....They always give me a plausible excuse to fall back on if a gamble fails)
    1-Year 12-team H2H: G/A/+-/PIM/PPP/SOG/SH%/FW/HIT/BLK GS/W/GAA/SV/SV%/SHO

    C: Giroux, Backstrom, Hanzal, Ribeiro
    LW: Nash, Ladd
    RW: Wheeler, Vrbata, Hornqvist
    D: Keith, Streit, Franson, Gardiner
    G: Lunquist, Mason, Luongo
    IR: Stepan

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    There really are no state secrets - just some folks chose to do more with data than others. Frozen Pool is a part of this site that is part for pay and part free but which allows you to look at current and past numbers under a microscope in some ways - if you haven't already, you might start there - lots of fun for a numberhead.

    Anyway it seems to me that a simple spreadsheet might serve you well here. Take a player - identify his opponents over the 2 weeks of concern in the playoffs - identify his average production against that team by stat and plug it in an accumulate his stats for the week. Do the same for players that you are thinking about trading for. Gives you something to go on anyway.

    I like to look at over the season performance in a cat for my team and try and guess which team I am likely to meet in the playoffs and determine how concerned I should be about beefing up in that cat. You know with Elias and Backes taking FO from the wings, you might not have a FOW issue at all. If Crosby come back in time - you are likely to have very few issues with several offensive cats.

    So if you likely have a bye into the semis - really there are only two teams you might be concerned about and that is Phoenix and Colorado with only 5 games over the two weeks - everyone else has 6 or 7 and in TB's case it's 8 (whoopee) - I really wonder if you need be much concerned here.
    Yahoo 12 team 1 year roto - 82 game max/position
    G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,SOG,FOW,Hits,Blocks,W,GAA,SV%,Saves

    3C: Thornton, Pavelski, Datsyuk
    3RW: Ovechkin, Gaborik, Kesler
    3LW: Forsberg, Ladd, Tatar
    5D: Yandle, Vatanen, Streit, Russell, Ekblad
    2G: Bishop, F. Andersen
    5B: Strome, Hartnell, Eakin, Svedberg, Ward
    2IR: Gustavsson, Neal

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