What is Wrong With the Washington Capitals?

[metaldude26]

This is in direct response to tweets you may have seen from BK_Dobbernation earlier today when he called in to question the Capitals decision to fire Bruce Boudreau and hire Dale Hunter.

Has it already been so long that we have completely forgotten what a train wreck the Boudreau situation was turning out to be? That was a tense situation waiting to explode. The rift between Ovechkin and Boudreau was becoming a serious issue and it is clear that Boudreau and his new strategies were simply not working.

The Capitals were 12-9-1 under Boudreau this season but if you discount their hot 7-0-0 start they were on a 5-9-1 slide and sinking fast.

Even with a winning record the Capitals had allowed more goals against (72) than they had scored (69). They certainly were scoring a lot (3.13 per game) but they were allowing even more and if you discount that hot 7-0-0 start the Capitals were in fact only scoring 2.67 goals per game - in other words, not so hot.

Worse yet their special teams play was horrendous. Their PP was clicking at just 16.3% and their PK was only operating at 80.0%. These are low to middle of the pack numbers not fitting of a perennial powerhouse.

I am not sure how you can call into question Boudreau getting fired. What about the hiring of Dale Hunter? Keep in mind that Hunter is coming in to a struggling team and has no pre-season or training camp to institute his philosophies. In other words, he is winging it.

I have done the research on mid-season coaching changes and you can find the thread on it buried somewhere in these forums but the common thread I found is that mid-season coaching changes do help. Teams will typically score more and play better on special teams. I also noted that it typically takes around 10 games to get the team to really start playing well under the new coach. 10 games is like three weeks, which is basically a training camp. Makes sense right? So it is pretty hard to totally evaluate Hunter's body of work when he is just two weeks out of training camp. Two weeks out of training camp Boudreau was a god. That was obviously wrong.

Under Hunter the Capitals are 9-8-1 but more importantly they have scored more (48) than their opponents (46). It is still close but they are improving. That goal scoring rate is actually the exact same (2.67) as it was under Boudreau during their slide. What is important to note is their goals against per game (2.55) has gone way down under Hunter.

They have also made some big moves on special teams. Their power play is killing it under Hunter clicking at 24.5% and their penalty kill is operating at 85.0%. That sort of play would put the Capitals right in the top tier of the league on special teams.

The wins have not really been their. At least not the dominant sort of winning streak wins but the foundation is being built. I honestly believe that this was more an overreaction to their back-to-back 5-2 losses against tough West Coast teams on the road without their top line center which is a position they seriously lack depth. Ignore these past two games, ignore the wins and losses and focus on the process instead. Teams lose games all the time. To consistently win in this league you need to consistently have a positive goal differential and you need to play well on special teams. The Capitals are trending upward. Do not ignore the signs.

[hockeyrobot]

Awesome stuff as usual md

[Pengwin7]

Good post & good timing!

The Capitals next 8 games are against: PIT/TB/CAR/NYI/MON/CAR/PIT/BOS.
With PIT being banged up, it means that 7 of these 8 games are VERY winnable.
(Duh Winning!)

Patience is definitely required before evaluating the Boudreau vs. Hunter change.
I think we'll all have a better feel on the CAPS by All-Star weekend.

[metaldude26]

Good post & good timing!

The Capitals next 8 games are against: PIT/TB/CAR/NYI/MON/CAR/PIT/BOS.
With PIT being banged up, it means that 7 of these 8 games are VERY winnable.
(Duh Winning!)

Patience is definitely required before evaluating the Boudreau vs. Hunter change.
I think we'll all have a better feel on the CAPS by All-Star weekend.

Yeah, I looked at the schedule coming up as well and saw they have four winnable games coming up at home. Way to take it to the next level! Looking at this, maybe they generate enough mo' going into that Boston game that they can snatch that one too.

[dyzfunctioned]

Great writeup, as per usual.

[blayze]

I'll admit that the Caps haven't turned around as quickly as I thought they would under Hunter, but it's only been just over 15 games. Massive overreaction here.

Besides, it's not like Hunter's shitting the bed, Caps actually have a winning record, and it looks like Ovie is starting to awaken. Unfortunately it doesn't help Hunter's cause that its looking more and more like their best player has a concussion right now.

Way too early for criticism.

[Laendarian]

great post, I was actually wondering the same thing when I saw that tweet, but lacked the motivation to do the background on it lol.

[metaldude26]

Thanks boys, just fighting misconceptions.

[BK_DobberNation]

Great read, glad to see you take up my question. I tweeted to point out the weight that everyone puts on coaches as a determining factor for their team's success -- if Caps were significantly improved post-Boudreau, then people would be rushing to sing Hunter's praises. Even though they're on the upswing as you described, I'm not sure it's enough to assign credit to Hunter. A team as good as the Caps can't play as terribly as they were forever.

But you're bang-on about him winging it. His first head coaching job parachutes him into a situation with a team in a seemingly uncontrollable tailspin -- what can he do? Cunneyworth is in the same spot with Mtl right now, but he's been assigned much more of the blame than Hunter (which is what I was hinting at with my original tweet).

The problem with both these teams, and why they attract this kind of questioning, is that they're not only bad but significantly underachieving (Caps more so than Habs). Credit for overachieving/underachieving squads is usually given to the coaching staff, rather than players.
But the Caps really do look uncoachable right now, regardless of who's behind the bench .. much like the post-Cup finalist Sens, who also had significant talent and a rookie coach.. And then burned through a handful of those rookie coaches (Paddock, Hartsburg, Clouston) before settling down.

From all I've heard about his potential, I hope Hunter doesn't suffer the same fate and I didn't mean to suggest in any definite way that the team's continued problems are his own. But they are his to deal with, and he'll be judged as a coach accordingly.

[smack]

So. . . yeah. . . 3rd coach in 2 years and it's not looking any better. As much as Holtby's been a question mark, their D has been awful.

[27Blue]

too quick. this is still like training camp for oates.
not that i was too optimistic anyway,
but while every team faced challenges with a short preseason,
teams with new coaches like calgary and washington have an even bigger challenge to get things going smoothly from the start.

[metaldude26]

Even though it's a shortened season I'm still not jumping to any conclusions until I've seen at least 15-20 games. Remember, the New Jersey Devils won the Cup in the last shortened season after an awful start.

Ease up Chicken Little.

[Big Ev]

The Caps sucking? WHAT A SHOCK!!!! Mike Green especially!!!

[smack]

Of course it's early and they can win the next 46 games. But they were being outshot like 32 to 16 at one point. . . in their home opener. After giving up 6 goals in their first game. They even have the fire power to come back in this game but I was just saying their D looks horrible and totally lost. . . like it has been known in the past (minus Hunter for a little).

[blayze]

I think what the Caps need is a new coach.