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Thread: Retired - Columbus Blue Jackets

  1. #16
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    great insight into the PP. really great stuff. i figured russell would be top unit with wiz but i hear your thoughts about a possible bump to the second unit. it will give him more time to learn how to do it on his own while wiz mentors him in practice or offthe ice.

    should be an interesting year there. i think this team has imporoved and are making an effort. mason should beable to have less pressure on him and hopefully turn it around.
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  2. #17
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    I won't go as far as to say that Russell definitely won't be on the top PP unit especially considering that between Russell and Wiz they would have a right and a left shooting pointman. However, I think the expectation will be is to try and lessen the responsibilities he has given that they may have put too much on him for awhile and it hasn't exactly worked out. I think long-term his development will benefit from having Wiz on the top PP mentoring him and having him man the 2nd unit though it might not work that way but it is my best guess.

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    Default Goaltending Look

    Steve Mason

    I'll just say it now since it is probably what most of you already think: Steve Mason must play better this year. It is that simple. Sure he has a contract that has a cap hit at $2.9 million according to Cap Geek that gives him some security through the 2012-2013 season, that isn't what I am talking about. Instead, I am talking again about the raised expectations of the Blue Jackets organization, the fans, and the wider hockey community. The Blue Jackets can't afford to keep losing forever especially since every one takes note of your offseason moves and expects them to pay off when they are of that significant. It isn't like the the Blue Jackets are the only team to follow in Ohio with multiple better established baseball teams and of course, Ohio State University drawing fans to their athletic events.

    So does this mean Mason rebounds or does the "one year wonder" legacy he is building just become cemented by the new pressure/his potentially eventual failure? It might be acceptable to say his fewer wins in years past are a result of him playing behind a low-scoring team with an average defense. Maybe you blame the change in coaches from Ken Hitchcock to Arniel, however what sticks out to me as a source of concern is that his GAA has been above 3 for the last two seasons and his save percentage seems stuck at .901 those past two years as well. So for a team that doesn't score alot to begin with to have a goalie that allows on average three goals per game is not a good thing. Wisniewski while a good addition to the defense is more offensive despite being physical and Carter while not a one-trick pony is not exactly a Pavel Datsyuk on defense. Vinny Prospal and defense sounds like the start of a good joke to me.

    This does not mean I don't think the Blue Jackets won't win if Steve Mason's play doesn't improve. Heck they should score more goals and maybe a lot more goals than last season. All the same, long term Mason has to figure it out sooner rather than later otherwise he might turn into the two words no NHL starter wants to be "Andrew Raycroft." Not saying that Mason cannot turn it around since he can with his talent and age. However I would be careful to say that especially his peripheral stats (GAA and SV%) will improve much until we see something. Steve Mason is a volatile commodity that could really implode completely or pay off nicely since it will be one of the two extremes most likely.

    Mark Dekanich

    After posting very respectable numbers at Colgate University and in three AHL season, in most organizations Dekanich would be automatically resigned but with Anders Lindback, Atte Engren, Jeremy Smith, and Chet Pickard, breathing space behind Pekka Rinne has gotten a little too tight. Dekanich has become the odd-man out. I believe the perception was that the Predators had their starter for at least few years in Rinne (assuming like all of their goalies they eventually price themselves out) and by than one of four named above will be ready with Lindback being close and all of them at some point in their careers getting considerable praise.

    Nashville however is in Dekanich's past but maybe some of the outstanding goalie mojo they have in Nashville will make it with Dekanich to Columbus. He is a big but very athletic goalie and should be Mason's backup this year with Garon no longer in Columbus. Depending on if he can make a good impression will dictate his future. He could A) play well enough if Mason struggles to steal the job over time B) play well enough to secure the backup role for the foreseeable future C) play poorly and become a career minor league all-star or D) not get a chance if Mason plays consistently good throughout the year. Four reasonably plausible options all with varying degrees of success or failure makes predicting any potential rewards hard to be certain of for Dekanich at this time.

    My advice is if he can get him at a fair price in a keeper league to do it (well worth the gamble if you get him for the value of a backup goalie) but certainly it is not a safe enough bet to overpay as if he is a starter or future starter. My overall hunch for what we can expect from the Mason-Dekanich tandem is a moderate view that they both will be mediocre this season. Results for the duo could be similar to the Mason-Garon tandem of 2010-2011 except Dekanich is younger with a less familiar name than Garon.

    Allen York

    I've seen his first name spelled Allan and Allen but in any case 2010-2011 was a great year for York both at R.P.I. (NCAA) and the Springfield Falcons (AHL). His GAA and his SV% at both levels were superb and his 3-1 record in four AHL games is great for such a brief assessment.

    I'll be the first to acknowledge that I am an Allen York fan as fantasy GM and as pro-NCAA fan (especially of the smaller Division 1 programs like R.I.P). I picked him up in my main keeper league (February 2011) and have drafted him in another one. It will be good to see how he does in a full AHL season under his belt but if Dekanich and/or Mason falter he might get some NHL opportunities. The more likely scenario is that he will have a good AHl season and will get a shot in a year or two to be a backup and depending on how he plays in that role maybe a starter just hard to know at this juncture since it also depends on the play of Mason, Dekanich and any newcomers the Blue Jackets might bring in.
    Last edited by guthey; August 17, 2011 at 3:04 PM.

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    Default Tomas Kubalik & Evaluating Czech/Slovakian Skaters

    Opening

    I have realized that there is plenty of time before the season starts so I will take my time and highlight each player and prospect I feel is of note for awhile. I focus on prospect Tomas Kubalik in this post with some commentary about Czech and Slovakian hockey. I also assess international amateur players in general a bit. Hope you enjoy.


    Kubalik's Hockey Background

    Tomas Kubalik is exactly the reason why being an NHL scout of amateur talent is such a hard task because while many fantasy GMs rely on analyzing stats, hearsay, and perceived situations, try to tell me if you could've honestly assessed that Kubalik's draft year stats stood out very much.

    I'll save you the trouble of looking them up:

    Kubalik (07-08)
    - 20 games played with Plzen HC (Czech)- 3 points
    - 7 games with Beroun (Czech2)- 0 points
    - 22 games with Plzen (Czech Jr.)- 21 points

    Source- http://forecaster.ca/hockeynews/hockey/player.cgi?6772

    This may also be a commentary on evaluating European players in European men's leagues in general and why playing against other junior level competition is best for draft value and perhaps development. However, not all European leagues are the same, the state of Czech and Slovakian hockey are not what they once were. Players from the two Eastern European countries are usually picked as a gamble more often than not with players from Sweden, for instance, being regarded as generally pretty "safe" acquisitions these days. It must be what a scout saw in those Czech Junior League games and the resulting statistics that led to the Blue Jackets selected Tomas Kubalik in the 5th round of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft. At the same time it isn't always easy to say that since he was at a point-per-game pace against juniors in his country that he would do the same in the Canadian major junior ranks since it is widely regarded that Canada has the best junior ranks in the world often by a hefty margin over the likes of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Impressively in his first season in the QMJHL on North American ice for the Victoriaville Tigres, Kubalik put up 75 points in 58 games. However, this 2008-2009 season in the Q was after the Blue Jackets had selected Kubalik so maybe for once it is just their luck paying off.

    Evaluating Kubalik Now

    Anyway I digress, Kubalik is coming off of a very good AHL season with the Springfield Falcons where he posted 53 points in 76 games (maybe North America suits his play better anyway). He had a good pre-season with Columbus last year and has some great tools. He is 6'3'' and over 200 pounds. The Blue Jackets see him as a guy who can score with some skill but it is his compete level and physicality that will open up even more opportunities for him if he adds more size and strength.

    The problem for Kubalik is that a certain Matt Calvert had a very good streak to start his NHL career but the good news is he cooled off. Regardless, Calvert probably starts the year in the NHL but if he can't find his form than Kubalik could pass him.

    Cam Atkinson and the tumultuous story that has been Maksim Mayorov's career so far could also be roadblocks (more on those two and Calvert later).

    If Kubalik gets a chance I expect like he has throughout his career to grab it and run with it. He might cool off after awhile or he might not. The great thing for Kubalik is because of his height and willingness to get "chippy" with his opponents he could also carve out a role there too.
    Last edited by guthey; August 18, 2011 at 2:20 PM.

  5. #20
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    No responses after two more posts. You mean not all of you love the Blue Jackets?

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    no, in fact I HATE the blue jackets...

  7. #22
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    Hard to hate. What have they ever done to you? or anybody haha.

    All the same I think they're interesting from a fantasy perspective now.

  8. #23
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    I'm a preds fan

    I dislike having blue jackets on my fantasy team, and I don't like really anyone on that team. especially nash I think is overrated

    yuck

  9. #24
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    that's fine. even if you think they're overrated and doubtlessly some people do overrate them than there are ways to capitalize on that through trades for some people. I am hoping to give people insights into the team and if you don't own them or don't care that is fine. Some people do care about them as fans or fantasy GMs that is who this thread was intended for.

  10. #25
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    Don't feel discouraged guthey, your efforts are greatly appreciated trust me. Just because there are no replies doesn't mean people aren't reading. I read your blurb on Mason and Dekanich last night with extreme interest as I own Mason in one of my leagues. Here's to hoping he can turn it around...but I'm not holding my breath either

    Thanks for your great efforts so far and keep it up! Looking forward to reading more!
    Goalies: If I'm pickin em you best be sittin em!


  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by guthey View Post
    that's fine. even if you think they're overrated and doubtlessly some people do overrate them than there are ways to capitalize on that through trades for some people. I am hoping to give people insights into the team and if you don't own them or don't care that is fine. Some people do care about them as fans or fantasy GMs that is who this thread was intended for.
    you asked
    . You mean not all of you love the Blue Jackets?
    so I thought I would answer...Nothing more nothing less

    I hope you guys keep missing the playoffs that's all

    lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by b0ndon View Post
    Don't feel discouraged guthey, your efforts are greatly appreciated trust me. Just because there are no replies doesn't mean people aren't reading. I read your blurb on Mason and Dekanich last night with extreme interest as I own Mason in one of my leagues. Here's to hoping he can turn it around...but I'm not holding my breath either

    Thanks for your great efforts so far and keep it up! Looking forward to reading more!
    Exactly! Look, your post is nearly ready to pass my Calgary board for number of views... but that's because Columbus has some young blood and made some major changes and trades. The Calgary system's excitement is how we are bringing back the same 13 forwards as last year, adding in Scott Hannan, and hoping that will be enough to make the playoffs!! I'll need to be somewhat more creative, haha...

    And I like your last two posts as well, I have both Dekanich and Kubalik on my roster with a rookie component to fill, so I'm hoping they can contribute in some way!
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  13. #28
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    Thanks for the help Guthey, you da man!

    Brassard. Thoughts?
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  14. #29
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    Default Cam Atkinson

    Introduction

    The path to professional hockey is not linear and different approaches can be taken-- this is illustrated best by these two Blue Jacket forward prospects.

    Atkinson

    Cam Atkinson a year ago was a rarely thought of under-sized forward playing at Boston College. He had a great sophomore season with 53 points in 42 games but it wasn't until he pretty much repeated those numbers his junior season that people's heads turned (He posted 52 points in 39 games last NCAA season). On top of that he had a point-per-game pace with the Springfield Falcons through five games with the AHL team.

    Some things to note about Atkinson is that despite his size he plays an active style where he battles for pucks and works hard. However, he is much more than an under-sized grinder, Atkinson's shot is his greatest strength both with how strong it is but especially in how quickly he can unload it. His puck skills and speed are also strengths to his game.

    His style of play definitely is a major reason why the 5'8'' or 5'9'' forward (depending on who you ask) can succeed. Sure many promising under-sized players play this style since if they didn't we likely wouldn't hear much about them. However, Atkinson does fit the skilled fearless undersized guy mold better and more effectively than most.

    Atkinson has Kubalik and Petr Straka to contend with on RW (he is usually listed there). Kubalik is the more serious competitor for Atkinson since Kubalik has put up a very fine AHL career thus far. This can go either of two ways Kubalik wins a job this year or Atkinson wins one this year. I think the two could be traveling back and forth from Columbus to Springfield depending on who is hot. If it comes down to who can play a more skilled game in the initial decision expect Atkinson to start in Columbus on a lower scoring line. If they are looking for a complete game with a nice touch of size and physicality than Kubalik will be in Columbus. Knowing Columbus they are not afraid to put out smaller players (see Calvert, Matt) and those players have done well as of late. Atkinson also could have an advantage out of the gate since no one is sure that they will score enough goals even with Carter, Nash, etc. so since Atkinson has the higher pure goal-scoring potential he could get the nod. For Kubalik some size might help the lower scoring lines and his energy will help there. It is unlikely that he sticks primarily as a checker or an energy player with some skill right now with the Blue Jackets having plenty of that in the likes of Derek Dorsett and Jared Boll.

    It is also not out of the question that an injury or two could open spots for both of them on the NHL squad as the year goes along. I would be surprised if neither Atkinson nor Kubalik made it but it is possible assuming Matt Calvert's holds on to his winger spot from the left side and other players shine.

  15. #30
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    Default Derick Brassard

    It is amazing to think that as a 2006 1st round pick that Derick Brassard has not been ruled a bust or fully panned out product yet. His slow development has a lot to do with the team he has played on and his own injury issues early in his career. Under Hitchcock, the team favored veteran players and it didn't help young Brassard that he only played 31 games in what should've been a full rookie season. Lost on many is the fact that Brassard has played 79 games (09-10) and 74 games (10-11) which is not that bad. It doesn't mean he is in the clear for injury issues but it is reassuring to see two pretty healthy years in a row.

    A major knock on his play offensively has been that he doesn't shoot enough to make teams respect his shot. However, Brassard increased his shooting totals by 58 shots last season so this issue is being addressed and it is reflected in his 11-point tally increase last season. He likely will play left wing this year with the addition of Carter and his face-off winning percentage trailing all other centers on his team last season. The injury to Huselius helped bring in Vinny Prospal who isn't exactly an iron man either so just because Brassard is projected to play the 2nd line left wing that might not be a bad thing. It is funny how his inability to win face-offs could open up more opportunities for him by changing positions. Even if he doesn't play left wing he should have a good chance to make the 2nd line and certainly won't end up lower than a 3rd scoring line.

    Something that is generally underrated about the Blue Jackets is the impact that incoming players from their prospect system like Johansen, Kubalik and Atkinson can help boost established players on this team's production. The reason why is not that any one of these guys are locks be superstars or even 2nd line performers for a long time but regardless of where they land this season the increased quality depth is something that Columbus has not had the luxury of having before. One of the players that should benefit is Brassard on either the wing or under center. Vermette and Umberger will also likely see an improvement in their point totals because of this new found depth.

    It is hard to completely predict Brassard's numbers since he could end up on the projected Nash-Carter line, 2nd or 3rd scoring lines. If he stays with Nash and Carter for a long stretch with the whole line producing expect 60 something points give or take. If he stays on the 2nd line expect numbers solidly in the mid to high 50 point range. If he is on the 3rd line he might still reach 50 but not get a lot more if that.

    Next I will be returning to preview prospects like Maksim Mayorov, Matt Calvert (who might bump Brassard down if Brassard plays left wing) and Petr Straka.
    Last edited by guthey; August 23, 2011 at 3:38 PM.

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