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Thread: kessel - point prediction this year

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    The question was what is his upside... 80-90 is certainly not out of the question for him to hit... a career 65 point player? How can anyone say that about a guy who is so young and has already hit that target... he probably still thinks like a kid and is therefore stupid. Let him grow up a bit and give him talent to play with, and mark my words (no matter how lost and one dimensional he has looked), he will peak with a season that looks like this: 44G 41A (80-90 UPSIDE) and maybe he does this once 6 years from now when he's 29 and his brain and Burke catch up with his body...
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    Quote Originally Posted by jhonny View Post
    The question was what is his upside... 80-90 is certainly not out of the question for him to hit... a career 65 point player? How can anyone say that about a guy who is so young and has already hit that target... he probably still thinks like a kid and is therefore stupid. Let him grow up a bit and give him talent to play with, and mark my words (no matter how lost and one dimensional he has looked), he will peak with a season that looks like this: 44G 41A (80-90 UPSIDE) and maybe he does this once 6 years from now when he's 29 and his brain and Burke catch up with his body...

    I can see this happening, but the key is the "give him talent to play with". Kessel is just not the type of player who can do it by himself, and he is not the first guy you think of when you think of the cliche "makes other players around him better", he is one of those guys that really complements what is already a great lineup, rather than thriving as the central focus of a lineup. This is just my opinion, don't hold it against me.

    So, if Burke can manage to put together a team with capable scorers, high end scorers, much better than what he has now, you could see Kessel have a career year like that, 85 points and 44 goals, but it will never happen if Kessel is the go-to guy and only elite scorer. And I'm sorry, Connolly is very skilled, but his injury history among other reasons prevent him from being labelled as an elite player. Colborne and/or Kadri? Time will tell.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ross10019 View Post
    I can see this happening, but the key is the "give him talent to play with". Kessel is just not the type of player who can do it by himself, and he is not the first guy you think of when you think of the cliche "makes other players around him better", he is one of those guys that really complements what is already a great lineup, rather than thriving as the central focus of a lineup. This is just my opinion, don't hold it against me.

    So, if Burke can manage to put together a team with capable scorers, high end scorers, much better than what he has now, you could see Kessel have a career year like that, 85 points and 44 goals, but it will never happen if Kessel is the go-to guy and only elite scorer. And I'm sorry, Connolly is very skilled, but his injury history among other reasons prevent him from being labelled as an elite player. Colborne and/or Kadri? Time will tell.
    Agreed! So with Connolly for as long as they can get out of him... I can see 70-74 points a possibility this season for Kessel. He just had 64 with marginal playmakers, right? Plus a huge dry spell in the middle half of the year...
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    W: Stutzle, Robertson, Connor, Buchnevich, McCann
    D: Makar, McAvoy, Josi, Theodore, Matheson, Harley
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    Quote Originally Posted by jhonny View Post
    Agreed! So with Connolly for as long as they can get out of him... I can see 70-74 points a possibility this season for Kessel. He just had 64 with marginal playmakers, right? Plus a huge dry spell in the middle half of the year...

    If everything falls into place (no Connolly injuries or other significant injuries; Liles has relatively seamless integration on the PP) then maybe, but I still don't see anyone on the Leafs breaking the 70-point barrier this year.

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    Kessels production won't overly jump.

    Connolly isn't exactly an elite talent. When he gets injured, who is Kessel going back to play with?

    His absolute max this year is 70 I say. 38-32
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    Quote Originally Posted by eyemissgilmour View Post
    I think people are overstating the impact of playing with better linemates.
    Even if they upgrade on Connolly at some point, a prototypical elite playmaking centre might help Phil reach the 40 goal mark, sure, but it will also hurt his assist totals as he will be the goto goal scorer at that point.
    So I wouldn't be shocked to see 40-25, or even 40-30 at some point.
    But come on, Phil Kessel - a point per game player? Not a chance. Mark my words.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jhonny View Post
    The question was what is his upside... 80-90 is certainly not out of the question for him to hit... a career 65 point player? How can anyone say that about a guy who is so young and has already hit that target... he probably still thinks like a kid and is therefore stupid. Let him grow up a bit and give him talent to play with, and mark my words (no matter how lost and one dimensional he has looked), he will peak with a season that looks like this: 44G 41A (80-90 UPSIDE) and maybe he does this once 6 years from now when he's 29 and his brain and Burke catch up with his body...
    man that is some finnnnnnneeeee bud you've got in your bong apparently, how bout hooking the rest of us up with some of that giggle weed?

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    Point prediction for Kessel?

    Last three years
    Team GP Goals Points
    Bos 70 36 60
    Tor 70 30 55
    Tor 82 32 64

    Seems like he is a 30+ goal scorer who will get 25+ assists. He also seems to miss about 8 games a year on average. If nothing changes, and neither he nor the team gets better, I would expect low 60's in total points. He will get his goals (a sniper who takes a ton of shots), but history shows that he is no setup man.

    If you believe, like I do, that the Leafs are getting better, then I would put him at the high 60's (that is what I would predict) since he will likely get more assists from teammates. If the Leafs field a talented playoff team sometime before the 2020's, then I could see him going to the mid-70's.

    Using Dobber's definition for "upside", I would peg him at 45G 35A. The stars would really have to align for that to happen (see Cheechoo, J.).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vancityguy View Post
    This is totally absurd, I have him at 35-34-69

    Leaf's fan's blow everything out of proportion!
    so do vancouver fans. there are fans from every team that do, so dont just single out a whole team's fanbase when you dont agree with a prediction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jhonny View Post
    The question was what is his upside... 80-90 is certainly not out of the question for him to hit... a career 65 point player? How can anyone say that about a guy who is so young and has already hit that target... he probably still thinks like a kid and is therefore stupid. Let him grow up a bit and give him talent to play with, and mark my words (no matter how lost and one dimensional he has looked), he will peak with a season that looks like this: 44G 41A (80-90 UPSIDE) and maybe he does this once 6 years from now when he's 29 and his brain and Burke catch up with his body...
    I would like to take this moment to say that I am a Leafs fan before I address this.

    80-90?!?!?! Who's he playing with Crosby? You want to know a guy who would hit 80 pts year in year out if he had a team around him? Rick Nash...and sorry to say Kessel is no Nash.

    Granted he will score between 30-36 goals on average and yes I will also say he will hit 40 once or twice over the course of his career but he is not even a 70 point man on average. He is a 30-30 to 34-34 point guy per year losing 6-9 games per year due to injury.

    1) He plays soft and is often invisible. Thankfully they show him during commercial breaks or us Leafs fans wouldn't see him most nights. He doesn't play the corners/behind the net. I get it he isn't a physical presence but come on at least bump and grind a bit....your not going to get the puck put on your tape all the time when your on a team that isn't exactly stacked with talent.

    2) Needs to get closer to the net. Shooting close to 60% of your shots from the hash marks on the boards is taking him out of the equation. Your not going to score that far out on a regular basis. 8-10 feet from the net would improve his numbers greatly.

    3) Speed. Where is it? He puts together a couple of good games and he seems to run out of gas. He runs into a average to slightly above average D-man squad gets bumped around a little bit and he is frustrated the rest of the night whether they are on him or not.

    I WANT him to be an 80+ pt guy....but I KNOW he is a 65 pt guy.
    Last edited by hockeyguy79; July 19, 2011 at 10:19 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by praba View Post
    so do vancouver fans. there are fans from every team that do, so dont just single out a whole team's fanbase when you dont agree with a prediction.
    I believe he was being sarcastic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    man that is some finnnnnnneeeee bud you've got in your bong apparently, how bout hooking the rest of us up with some of that giggle weed?
    I didn't think it would get all the attention... I will back off the Leaf player threads moving forward; however, my bong ammo will be of no desire when Kessel is a 30 year old just coming off his career best 84 point season. I am shocked to see the strong type casting for a kid that hasn't burned off his baby fat yet. Though I agree my predictions are bold and obviously against the grain. And when we talk upside, what is the percentage of folks that actually hit it? To say 70 is his upside is low... to say 90 is high... so no one out there thinks Kessel will ever hit 80. OK... I just disagree.
    10 Team H2H Points (Keep 1C, 2W, 2D, 1G, & 1 non-goalie):
    G,A,+/-, PIM, PPG, SHG, GWG, OTG, FOWs, Hits, Blks, Maj, Mis, (bonus scoring for D-men makes them comparable to Wing)
    Wins, Saves, GA, Shutouts

    18 Man Roster (3 IR slots) Daily Start: 2C, 4W, 4D, 2G

    C: Zibanejad, Thomas, Tavares
    W: Stutzle, Robertson, Connor, Buchnevich, McCann
    D: Makar, McAvoy, Josi, Theodore, Matheson, Harley
    G: Georgiev, Binnington, Kochetkov, Andersen (IR)

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    Quote Originally Posted by jhonny View Post
    I didn't think it would get all the attention... I will back off the Leaf player threads moving forward; however, my bong ammo will be of no desire when Kessel is a 30 year old just coming off his career best 84 point season. I am shocked to see the strong type casting for a kid that hasn't burned off his baby fat yet. Though I agree my predictions are bold and obviously against the grain. And when we talk upside, what is the percentage of folks that actually hit it? To say 70 is his upside is low... to say 90 is high... so no one out there thinks Kessel will ever hit 80. OK... I just disagree.
    Jhonny, I don't think you should back off from Leaf player threads, far from it, keep them coming. There is nothing personal about these exchanges regarding Kessel, the reality is that he is somewhat of a polarizing player due to his reputation for being relatively one-dimensional and not a "character" player (some of these may admittedly be somewhat unfair characterizations) and also because he was the centerpiece of that huge trade. My opinion is that he has the TALENT to have upside of 80-90 points, but as I posted previously, I just don't think that he'll ever come close to that unless he is surrounded by elite talent and isn't the go-to guy for his team (I think given his character he would not thrive where he is the focal point of an offense). For sure, he may hit 80 points at some point in his career, and possibly (although unlikely) even without elite talent surrounding him, but most of us don't seem to think he can get there anytime soon.

    It's kind of like the thread I posted months ago about whether an NHL GM, right NOW, would trade Kessel for Seguin or vice versa. Unfortunately some Leaf fans took that as an attack on Burke, the Leafs, Kessel, etc., where honestly it was just a comparison between two young players as we often seek to do on these threads. There is clearly some sensitivity when it comes to discussing Kessel, mainly due to that gigantic trade that brought him to the Leafs.

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    Fact: I am a Leafs fan
    Fact: I usually hate the way the team is put together and our general lack of patience
    Fact: I hated the Kessel trade.

    That being said I do think that Kessel has a ton of potential. For all of the Leafs fans that bitch that he doesn't hit and plays on the peripheral. Yup. That's what he does. And he's good at it. He's no Gretzky but did the Great One win a million puck battles? NO

    Kessel is a sniper. Pure and simple.

    Another fact is that he hasn't played with an above average center since leaving Boston. Is Connolly above average for a 1st line center? Probably not. Is he better than Bozak? Yup. Grabo? Yup Any other Leaf center for the past 2 years? Yup.

    I prayed all summer that Richards would sign in TO because Kessel's value would shoot through the roof. Especially in a league like mine that counts double the points for goals. No dice.

    But to say he won't improve on his #'s when he is still ridiculously young is wrong IMO.

    I can see 37 and 39 this year. Which in my league is 111 pts not including game winners. He's a pretty valuable asset to have.

    Do I think the Leafs will make the play-offs. NO
    Are they better then last year. Yes but not by much.

    I try to be a realist with the team I cheer for and I think I am in this situation.

    Maybe I'm wrong. But maybe I'm right. But Kessel's getting better.
    Last edited by Princeton; July 20, 2011 at 12:00 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Princeton View Post
    Fact: I am a Leafs fan
    Fact: I usually hate the way the team is put together and our general lack of patience
    Fact: I hated the Kessel trade.

    That being said I do think that Kessel has a ton of potential. For all of the Leafs fans that bitch that he doesn't hit and plays on the peripheral. Yup. That's what he does. And he good at it. He's no Gretzky but did the Great One win a million puck battles? NO

    Kessel is a sniper. Pure and simple.

    Another fact is that he hasn't played with an above average center since leaving Boston. Is Connolly above average for a 1st line center? Probably not. Is he better than Bozak? Yup. Grabo? Yup Any other Leaf center for the past 2 years? Yup.

    I prayed all summer that Richards would sign in TO because Kessel's value would shoot through the roof. Especially in a league like mine that counts double the points for goals. No dice.

    But to say he won't improve on his #'s when he is still ridiculously young is wrong IMO.

    I can see 37 and 39 this year. Which in my league is 111 pts not including game winners. He's a pretty valuable asset to have.

    Do I think the Leafs will make the play-offs. NO
    Are they better then last year. Yes but not by much.

    I try to be a realist with the team I cheer for and I think I am in this situation.

    Maybe I'm wrong. But maybe I'm right. But Kessel's getting better.


    Good post. Yes, Kessel's getting better, but anyone drafting him this year with the expectation that he'll put up 76 points is taking a HUGE gamble. I think there's a miniscule chance of that happening, less than 5%.
    Last edited by ross10019; July 20, 2011 at 6:33 PM.

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