Query about your decisions when to start or bench a goalie

[BabyElias]

I went with:
L10 games W-L-OTL of your goalie's team (Power rank)

Yes, its several things. But I decided to just pick the major one.
And I (personally) focus on the last 3-5 games.
What happened 6-10 games ago is way in the past (as goalies memories should go).

Thanks Pengwin. I agree, 5 games tells more about a hot / cold streak than 10 games. A lot can happen during ~3 weeks which normally takes to get 10 games.

[You Know]

That's a great list. One additional factor that I take into consideration along with those other points that I don't see in the list, but that I feel is really important, is the back-to-back schedule for both teams.

If a goalie is playing against a team which is playing their second of back-to-back games I'm much more likely to start him, and less likely to start him if he's playing the second of a back-to-back against a rested team.

[BabyElias]

That's a great list. One additional factor that I take into consideration along with those other points that I don't see in the list, but that I feel is really important, is the back-to-back schedule for both teams.

If a goalie is playing against a team which is playing their second of back-to-back games I'm much more likely to start him, and less likely to start him if he's playing the second of a back-to-back against a rested team.

Thanks. Yes, B2B has also a factor I have used. However, one has to be careful with this: some teams (and goalies for that matter) seem to play well in the other end of the B2B.

B2B factor did not make it to my Top 10 list, but surely that is a factor. Good point, You Know!

Also one factor was brought somewhere (I don't remember who wrote that) is this: when team is in long road trip and they have the first home game, usually the performance is bad. There was even statistics about this. One explanation might be that players have many tasks at home to carry out (please the wife, play with children, do the homework etc)

[ridinryan44]

Here's how I've worked it out...

I rarely bench a goalie. Simply because I am far more pissed off if my goalie has a good game against the team I benched him for than I am if he has a bad game against a team I thought about benching him for, but didn't. I think th eonly time I benched goalies was last year, when they played Washington or Pitts. Odds were good they were scoring a ton of goals. This year, in my H2H, which is the only league I'm permitted to bench one in, I don't think I made the decision to bench a goalie even once. I'm fighting for a playoff spot, which may be a direct result of this, or not, but the thing I do know is that not once have I been pissed that I didn't play a tender!

[BabyElias]

Ran out of Rep, but you are the next in line You Know!

[jeffl97]

Am i winning the goalie cats?
- Yes.
.....- Is it close?
.......- Yes
................- Do they have goalies starting tonight?
..................- Yes
.....................- Has my goalie been playing better than his goalie/easier matchup?
.........................- Yes - Start.
.........................- No - Stand pat.
.................- No. How has my goalie been doing.
......................... a) Good - Start.
......................... b) Bad - Stand pat.
........- No - Start my goalie.
- No - Start my goalie.

[BabyElias]

Here's how I've worked it out...

I rarely bench a goalie. Simply because I am far more pissed off if my goalie has a good game against the team I benched him for than I am if he has a bad game against a team I thought about benching him for, but didn't. I think th eonly time I benched goalies was last year, when they played Washington or Pitts. Odds were good they were scoring a ton of goals. This year, in my H2H, which is the only league I'm permitted to bench one in, I don't think I made the decision to bench a goalie even once. I'm fighting for a playoff spot, which may be a direct result of this, or not, but the thing I do know is that not once have I been pissed that I didn't play a tender!

You have two great goalies, so you don't have the benching problems!

Usually teams have 3-4 goalies and can only start 2. This means many benching decisions over the weekly match-up. I usually carry 3 goalies but for example last year I had Brodeur, Miller, Halak and Rask. Talk about difficult bench decisions! Well, I won the pool so it worked out for me

Thanks for the input ridinryan!

[BabyElias]

Am i winning the goalie cats?
- Yes.
.....- Is it close?
.......- Yes
................- Do they have goalies starting tonight?
..................- Yes
.....................- Has my goalie been playing better than his goalie/easier matchup?
.........................- Yes - Start.
.........................- No - Stand pat.
.................- No. How has my goalie been doing.
......................... a) Good - Start.
......................... b) Bad - Stand pat.
........- No - Start my goalie.
- No - Start my goalie.

This is good stuff, thanks! When you are in this phase:

"
.....................- Has my goalie been playing better than his goalie/easier matchup?
.........................- Yes - Start.
.........................- No - Stand pat.
.................- No. How has my goalie been doing.
......................... a) Good - Start.
......................... b) Bad - Stand pat.
"
I assume you use at least some of the factors listed in the poll, right?

[ridinryan44]

You have two great goalies, so you don't have the benching problems!

Usually teams have 3-4 goalies and can only start 2. This means many benching decisions over the weekly match-up. I usually carry 3 goalies but for example last year I had Brodeur, Miller, Halak and Rask. Talk about difficult bench decisions! Well, I won the pool so it worked out for me

Thanks for the input ridinryan!

should have specified... that's my keeper roto league that doesn't allow daily changes... don't have a choice to bench these guys.... they either play, or if i pull them, they're out for 30 days. My response was based on my H2H league, one that includes daily changes. I rarely bench my goalies... this year's NHL is a crapshoot....be pissed if i benched a good game.

[BabyElias]

should have specified... that's my keeper roto league that doesn't allow daily changes... don't have a choice to bench these guys.... they either play, or if i pull them, they're out for 30 days. My response was based on my H2H league, one that includes daily changes. I rarely bench my goalies... this year's NHL is a crapshoot....be pissed if i benched a good game.

OK. I only play daily transactions H2H leagues.

I also rarely bench goalies unless, of course, when I have to because more than two are starting. Well I always bench at the end of the match-up week, when I have secured the stats I need. And if it is very close match-up goalie stats-wise AND my goalie is likely going to have a bad start (based on the factors in the poll), the goalie goes to bench at the end of the week.

IMO, there is no point on carrying goalies with whom you constantly are afraid of bad outings, i.e. you are terrified to start him in the beginning of the weekly H2H match-up.

[You Know]

Depending on the team I'm playing in H2H, I usually have a go for it mentality early in the week. One bad game can be made up with great games later in the week I often find, whereas the late bad game can often kill you. Depends of course on the goalies you have rostered and your league.

In H2H leagues though I like have SVs as a category, which really encourages teams to play their goalies every night when possible, which combined with wins prevents teams from playing their minimum games at the start of the week, getting a couple lucky games, then sitting them for the remainder.

[BabyElias]

Depending on the team I'm playing in H2H, I usually have a go for it mentality early in the week. One bad game can be made up with great games later in the week I often find, whereas the late bad game can often kill you. Depends of course on the goalies you have rostered and your league.

Same here. But it works other way around. If you have good stats beginning of the week, one bad start don't necessarely kill you. Many times I see/read people benching goalies later in the week even if they have great stats. Common mistake. But as I wrote earlier, there's a tool coming to help this

In H2H leagues though I like have SVs as a category, which really encourages teams to play their goalies every night when possible, which combined with wins prevents teams from playing their minimum games at the start of the week, getting a couple lucky games, then sitting them for the remainder.

True. I am playing three leagues and all of them have different cats for goalies. Especially I find the hardest the team in sig: it has both SV and GA as cats. First one encouraging for many starts, other one totally opposite. Very difficult, and I have been burned many times due to it over the course of the season. (Kipper, I am looking at you!)

[BabyElias]

Need more data. Many great comments have come, and the thread has been read 500+ times - but only 16 voters... Please vote to the poll!

Thanks!

[GoalieGuild]

I've been asked by the author of this thread to leave some of my thoughts. I voted and didn't realize it was a "multiple choice" poll so I only picked one and it was personal records vs. teams.

I think one thing all of you know I've stressed over the years is trusting your instincts and gut, so if I would have voted for a 2nd option, that would have been it.

To be honest, I rarely ever bench a goalie unless the matchup and personal record is so blatantly negative that I'm super-sure he's going to give up a bunch of goals.

But I would say 75-80% of the time, I just keep all my goalies in my active lineup, regardless of what peripheral stats might lead me to think otherwise.

Why?

Every goalie is capable of overcoming odds and coming up with wins when not many expect it.

Ray Emery is a perfect example of this. My School of Block on Monday pointed to him because of what he went through, and because it was only a matter of time before he got a chance.

Goaltending is the toughest position to predict for fantasy managers because there's only 2 or 3 spots determining close to 50% of your scoring. The position is already difficult to dissect to begin with.

I guess I would say that gut and instinct is a powerful weapon if you truly understand what your goalies are made of. And again, it all comes down to watching as much of your goalies as possible. The more you watch them experience different situations (bouncing back, coming off a shutout, coming off a bad loss, playing on the road, etc etc) the more you know how they will play in future situations that are similar.

I think gut/instinct trumps anything regarding stats because when you have a strong feeling, you're usually pulling off past experiences in which the goalie was successful in a similar situation. That trumps any statistic in my mind.

But you all know I'm not a "fan" of stats in most situations.

[BabyElias]

I've been asked by the author of this thread to leave some of my thoughts. I voted and didn't realize it was a "multiple choice" poll so I only picked one and it was personal records vs. teams.

I think one thing all of you know I've stressed over the years is trusting your instincts and gut, so if I would have voted for a 2nd option, that would have been it.

To be honest, I rarely ever bench a goalie unless the matchup and personal record is so blatantly negative that I'm super-sure he's going to give up a bunch of goals.

But I would say 75-80% of the time, I just keep all my goalies in my active lineup, regardless of what peripheral stats might lead me to think otherwise.

Thanks Justin! I admit I was a bit persuasive to get your comments I kind of guessed your opinion about gut feeling but I was pleased to see you selected the career stats vs team. I have found also this useful: some goalies just simply shine against certain teams but face difficulties against other teams. For example past couple of years Luongo has had difficulties against Minnesota, especially in road games.

I see that I should have pointed one thing clearer in the start of the thread. I was not suggesting to bench a goalie if you are able to play him. This should have been more like: "How do you define which goalie you will play if need to choose between two goalies?". As I wrote earlier, last season I managed to get by trading into my 10-teamer Brodeur, Halak, Rinne and Miller. I faced many times difficult decisions about which goalies to start. This resulted that I started to make analysis about the factors how to make the decision.

I guess I would say that gut and instinct is a powerful weapon if you truly understand what your goalies are made of. And again, it all comes down to watching as much of your goalies as possible. The more you watch them experience different situations (bouncing back, coming off a shutout, coming off a bad loss, playing on the road, etc etc) the more you know how they will play in future situations that are similar.

I think gut/instinct trumps anything regarding stats because when you have a strong feeling, you're usually pulling off past experiences in which the goalie was successful in a similar situation. That trumps any statistic in my mind.

But you all know I'm not a "fan" of stats in most situations.

You have a bit "unfair" situation when compared to average Fantasy GM. You are scouting the goalies as your day job (at least it seems so)! Luckily you share the thoughts with us - I have been a regular reader of you reports in Goalie Guild. Big thanks for that! But yes, over a long period of time one starts to see patterns how his/her goalie does after a bad performance, coming off a shutout etc.

I am from Finland, and I very seldom have a chance to see live NHL games - only some early weekend games. Usually I view from NHL.com the goals let by my goalie to see whether they were soft etc. And of course I read a lot. But it is damn difficult to get understanding to see what my goalies is made of But thanks to you, I am getting more and more understanding.

Also, I am a number crunching guy (as Dobber also has said himself to be). I enjoy looking at the stats (TOI, PP TOI, game logs etc etc). I spend a lot of time for that. In my situation I have to rely on cold facts i.e. stats, but I have been succesful so far in my pools.

But coming back to the original target of the thread. I started to think whether there can be found an empirical method for helping Fantasy GMs in these difficult benching decisions. I wanted to hear your thoughts on which are the top-most factors for making the decision. Here's the TOP-5 so far:

1. Situation in H2H match-up / Roto
2. Hunch / gut feeling
3. L10 games stats for your goalie (W-L-OTL, GAA, SV% etc)
4. L10 games W-L-OTL of your goalie's team (Power rank)
5. Goalie's career stats against the opponent

Out of those, four are based on statistical factors. If weighting those correctly, I think there could be a chance to create a tool, which combines all of them and would help Fantasy GM's who need to choose between two goalies who to start.

So my idea to create a "Who-to-start H2H Goalie Tool". Here's how it would work (current idea, might still be developed):

First you choose the goalies. Let's say now Crawford @ DAL and Rinne vs DET.

After that the tool asks, which is important for you in the match-up:
1. Win is more important
2. Peripheral stats are more important
3. Both equally important.

After this you can select which factors you see are important. The list could be e.g.

A. L5 games stats for your goalie (W-L-OTL, GAA, SV% etc)
B. L10 games W-L-OTL of your goalie's team (Power rank)
C. Goalie's career stats against the opponent
D. L10 games W-L-OTL of the opponent team (Power rank)
E. Betting Odds for the match-up (odds for win-lose)
F. Season stats for your goalie (W-L-OTL, GAA, SV% etc)
G. Opponent's goals scored in last 5 games
H. Goalies stats Home/Away (Note: depending on which game is at hand)


Based on the selections you have done in 1.-3. and A.-H., the tool calculates the stats and lays out the converged results for both goalies (the algorithm how to calculate this is still work in progress). You could also get results for each scenario 1.-3. to see how the results comply with your situation in the match-up.

After you have the result, you can employ your gut feeling

What do you guys think? Am I totally crazy, or do you think this could work? Would love to get your feedback!

...and sorry for long post.

Cheers!