View Poll Results: Factors for deciding to start or bench a goalie

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  • Season stats for your goalie (W-L-OTL, GAA, SV% etc)

    9 34.62%
  • L10 games stats for your goalie (W-L-OTL, GAA, SV% etc)

    13 50.00%
  • Goalie's careers stats against the opponent

    9 34.62%
  • Goalie's last game stats against the opponent

    5 19.23%
  • Opponent's goals scored in last 10 games

    6 23.08%
  • Betting Odds for the match-up (odds for win-lose)

    3 11.54%
  • L10 games W-L-OTL of your goalie's team (Power rank)

    11 42.31%
  • L10 games W-L-OTL of the opponent team (Power rank)

    8 30.77%
  • Situation in H2H match-up / Roto

    15 57.69%
  • Hunch / gut feeling

    15 57.69%
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Thread: Query about your decisions when to start or bench a goalie

  1. #1
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    Default Query about your decisions when to start or bench a goalie

    Hi all,

    I am curious to hear your opinions on which are the most important facts you use when you determine when to start or bench a goalie in given night.

    I am now starting to make a research about this, and your feedback is extremely valuable. Hopefully I am able to come back and provide the results with you later. It requires a bit of number crunching, so it might take some time...

    I added different options to the poll. You can choose more than one. Also, please chime in to the comments section. Especially it is important to hear what you see is the priority order in making the decision.

    Edit: If you want to select Homecourt advantage, please select: Betting Odds for the match-up (odds for win-lose) I did not know how to modify Poll options...

    Rep given for the most valuable inputs!
    Last edited by BabyElias; March 18, 2011 at 6:15 AM. Reason: Homecourt advantage
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    What poll?

    By the way I think you are making a false assumption that everyone has a priority they use to make these decisions - I know I don't - it's usually more a case of converging factors.
    Yahoo 12 team 1 year roto - 82 game max/position
    G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,SOG,FOW,Hits,Blocks,W,GAA,SV%,Saves

    3C: Thornton, Pavelski, Datsyuk
    3RW: Ovechkin, Gaborik, Kesler
    3LW: Forsberg, Ladd, Tatar
    5D: Yandle, Vatanen, Streit, Russell, Ekblad
    2G: Bishop, F. Andersen
    5B: Strome, Hartnell, Eakin, Svedberg, Ward
    2IR: Gustavsson, Neal

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shoeless View Post
    What poll?
    Sorry, computer crashed. It is there now!
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    You forgot 'none of the above'. I think you also should think about homecourt advantage as a factor.
    Yahoo 12 team 1 year roto - 82 game max/position
    G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,SOG,FOW,Hits,Blocks,W,GAA,SV%,Saves

    3C: Thornton, Pavelski, Datsyuk
    3RW: Ovechkin, Gaborik, Kesler
    3LW: Forsberg, Ladd, Tatar
    5D: Yandle, Vatanen, Streit, Russell, Ekblad
    2G: Bishop, F. Andersen
    5B: Strome, Hartnell, Eakin, Svedberg, Ward
    2IR: Gustavsson, Neal

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shoeless View Post
    By the way I think you are making a false assumption that everyone has a priority they use to make these decisions - I know I don't - it's usually more a case of converging factors.
    Maybe I put it a bit wrongly there. I don't assume anything. Just that there are numerous who-to-start threads and people have always good comments: goalie X has terrible numbers against team Y etc, Team Z is in terrible slump etc etc - and therefore I was curious to get feedback from everyone. And you can select more than one, there's a converging factor for you

    I have been using certain method over the past years with fairly good success. In the end this boils down to hunch but I think there could be some common factors that would apply to many cases (over a long period of time).

    OK, Shoeless, please be first to chime in!
    Last edited by BabyElias; March 18, 2011 at 6:21 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shoeless View Post
    You forgot 'none of the above'. I think you also should think about homecourt advantage as a factor.
    Really? None of the above? I don't buy this You have at least this hunch / gut feeling option there.

    Homecourt advantage is partly in the Betting odds, but you are right, I should add it there! I will change that (if I know how...)

    Thanks Shoeless!
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    I'm with Shoeless here. Its more of a converging decision than due to any one factor. I make a habit of almost always starting, but I'll give you the order that I typically go in if I really am considering a benching.

    Note: my strategy may only be applicable to H2H leagues, not sure about roto ones.

    1. H2H Matchup - How close am I to my opponents numbers? Do I already have a shutout that I can protect my ratios by benching but not risk losing a category? Which goalies do my opponent have - do they have the high % to get a shutout (maybe good matchups against weak teams that week), How am I doing in the Wins column...
    Premature benching can really eff you up if you don't consider a lot of these points.

    2. Who are MY goalies? Is my goalie an elite option (in which case its almost always a must start for me, I personally find it foolish most of the time to bench a guy that you've invested heavily in to get). If I bench my goalie tonight, do I have more starts later in the week as insurance?

    3. Home/Away - Does my goalie play better at home or away? What are my goalies numbers for home or away games?

    4. Recent History: Is my goalie's team playing like garbage? Maybe missing key players due to injury, maybe the goalie has been overworked. How is the opposing NHL team doing? Are they riding a big high right now? Are they scoring 5-6 goals/game?

    5. Career Stats: How has my goalie typically done in his career? - This one is tricky and you have to make sure you don't rely on it TOO heavily at least in my opinion. Over the course of a career goalies will probably have different players playing in front of him, and there will likely be different players on the opposing team. Situations change.
    (i.e. An extreme case: Let's say Goalie A has great numbers against team B in the past 3 seasons, but team B since then has acquired players C D E who make that team much much better.)

    If I come to the end of this analysis and I still can't decide, then I will go on my gut feeling and never look back. My gut feeling is typically to start, because unless a guy gives up 6 goals I'm always going to be more cheesed if I bench a shutout. Picking matchups can make you tear your hair out.
    I think if you ask different people you'll get different answers. There's really no fool-proof system to do this sort of thing. Eventually you just figure out what process you go through that will allow you to live with your decision.

    Hope this helps.
    Goalies: If I'm pickin em you best be sittin em!

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    Thanks b0ndon! Much appreciated. Very much agree on your input.

    I should have put that Home/Away factor as an option. Damn. There are some goalies who suck at home but are good in away games (and of course vice versa). One good example this year has been Anderson:

    Away: GAA 2.43, SV% .928
    Home: GAA 3.48, SV% .888
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  9. #9
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    You don't need our advice when you can create a poll like that. All items on the poll are the deciding factors as to making a decision as to who to start. Home/Away is another excellent suggestion. Odds are probably the quickest and simplest way for a less experienced person or someone in a hurry, to make a decision. That's a very excellent suggestion.

    You do realize that your poll is essentially a column? An educational piece.

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    Well explained and laid out, b0ndon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JHM View Post
    You don't need our advice when you can create a poll like that. All items on the poll are the deciding factors as to making a decision as to who to start. Home/Away is another excellent suggestion. Odds are probably the quickest and simplest way for a less experienced person or someone in a hurry, to make a decision. That's a very excellent suggestion.

    You do realize that your poll is essentially a column? An educational piece.
    Yes, if this turns into an educational piece, I am more than happy!

    But I am mostly now using you to gather data, not asking advice

    I have been using these kind of methods for couple of years. Nowadays, it is sort of automatic procedure for me to check most of those things when making start/bench decision. Now I got a wild idea to create a somekind of tool for helping Fantasy GM's in these decisions. In other words converging all these factors with correct weighting and you would get suggestion who to start. It very well might be that this is mission impossible, but I will try as I got inspired. You are needed to share your thoughts - this information is very valuable.
    "Sedin is not English for punch me or headlock me in a scrum."

    -Brian Burke-

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    Quote Originally Posted by BabyElias View Post
    Yes, if this turns into an educational piece, I am more than happy!

    But I am mostly now using you to gather data, not asking advice

    I have been using these kind of methods for couple of years. Nowadays, it is sort of automatic procedure for me to check most of those things when making start/bench decision. Now I got a wild idea to create a somekind of tool for helping Fantasy GM's in these decisions. In other words converging all these factors with correct weighting and you would get suggestion who to start. It very well might be that this is mission impossible, but I will try as I got inspired. You are needed to share your thoughts - this information is very valuable.
    I am curious to see if you can come up with something. Good luck, whether or not it gives you the desired results. I would be interested to hear your findings.

    However, I would guess that the most difficult part is how to include external factors, such as your opponents situation (in H2H) or your league standing in relevant categories and maximum games situation (in Roto).

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    Quote Originally Posted by horrorfan View Post
    I am curious to see if you can come up with something. Good luck, whether or not it gives you the desired results. I would be interested to hear your findings.
    Thanks, I will let you guys know. If this works, I will need some help for getting the tool implemented to a Web site. But I have already started discussions with certain fellow...

    Quote Originally Posted by horrorfan View Post
    However, I would guess that the most difficult part is how to include external factors, such as your opponents situation (in H2H) or your league standing in relevant categories and maximum games situation (in Roto).
    For the H2H match-up and opponents situation there will soon come a tool! But I cannot reveal more, unless the Web site owner wants to come public already. You know who you are
    "Sedin is not English for punch me or headlock me in a scrum."

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    Thanks to everybody who have voted and commented. More votes and comments appreciated.

    This is not a public poll, so your answers will not be shown.

    THANKS!
    "Sedin is not English for punch me or headlock me in a scrum."

    -Brian Burke-

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    I went with:
    L10 games W-L-OTL of your goalie's team (Power rank)

    Yes, its several things. But I decided to just pick the major one.
    And I (personally) focus on the last 3-5 games.
    What happened 6-10 games ago is way in the past (as goalies memories should go).

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