How to do research?
So I'm still new (second year) in fantasy hockey....how do you guys do your research? How do you figure out who the top 6 players were for a given team?
For example, lets say I'm researching Vanek, I go to dobbers fantasy tools and pull up what line he played on the majority of the time.
Roy, Stafford, Vanek
How do I then go and find out what line that ranks for buffalo? Was that their top line? Bottom line? Etc?
I don't watch every single game out there, i find it hard to follow every NHL team that closely, my "team" that i watch is a west coast team
How do you guys do research and start valuing players?
How do you keep track of who's being added to a team and what impact it will have. For example, if buffalo added another center, someone that could set up better, how do you know if he would impact vaneks production?
Just trying to become a better GM, thanks guys
A lot of it comes down to experience.
In just your 2nd year the best outcome for you is probably just to absorb as much information as you possibly can.
Get familiar with player's names and team superstars and continue to learn the ropes of fantasy hockey. What are the fantasy indicators of success to look for, and keep following sites and forums to get the latest up to date info.
I've written a few articles the past few weeks that highlight the potential top-six of each team. Generally most are pretty set, with a few other key names to keep an eye on. Take a gander at those if you haven't done so yet.
Just keep scrolling through for each article. There's 5 for each Conference, with the last one coming out on Thursday this week for the East.
One tidbit about line combinations is that they change all the time. It changes from game-to-game and possibly even period-by-period. So don't rely too much on thinking that the same three players will line up with each other for the duration of the season.
If you want to look up the top-6 for each team the easy (albiet not entirely 100% accurate) way of doing it is to go into NHL.com and go under stats, and sort it by the team that you want then sort the data by TOI/G.
Generally speaking the top-3 players that are on top of the list (who garner the most ice-time) are the top-line players, then the next 3 are probably the 2nd line players and that generally sorts out the top-six vs the rest for teams.
Another quick way is to go to the same section Dobber Fantasy Tools and go under Line Production, and select Team FWD and it should list the most productive lines from the entire year.
eg.) you should get Buffalo:
Connolly, Hecht and Pominville was the most productive at 48 points
Hope it helps :)
During the off season you can always go to nhl.com's team pages for depth charts, line combos, and individual player stats. Otherwise, I rely mainly on Dobber's Guide/site/forums, as to who gets power play time, player value, etc...
If you're like me, and need secondary sources to verify then I recommend hockey's future, the Goalie Guild, and HockeyPoolGeek.
Read, read, read, read....read anything and everything you can get your hands on with regard to hockey - magazines, papers, this site (dobber) has a ton of info. Read and take notes if you have to. If you read about a player through some other source or hear a player mention on radio/tv, and you're unsure, bring it up on the forums. The guys on here a more than helpful and pretty damn knowledgeable!
Thats probably the thing that helped me most.
EDIT: Oh yeah...buy the Guide! Study that sucker inside out, and you'll be well on your way.
I also look at PP TOI/G because a lot of points come from the PP.
For example, Burrows plays a lot with the twins but don't see much PP time. He's 4th on team's forwards for ES TOI/G but only 10th when it comes PP TOI/G. His points total would be higher if he'd get those 1st unit minutes.
UAVMX - Here is my gold websites for research
#1 Everyday at some time, go to USATODAY's fantasy hockey for news on any players. It should only take 3-5 minutes to go through a day's worth of updates. If often addresses line changes from previous nights games and always address major things like injuries or trades. At the bottom of each "news" blurb - it lists a source in case you want to read more on it or verify the reliability of the source.
#2 DobberHockey's forums, right here. I don't need to post the link. And you found the "Fantasy Tools" here. There are two in there that should be used "Line Combinations" and "Line Production". You can either sort by player or sort by TEAM. The team sort is good because it will allow you to see who teams are putting out there. The "last 10 games" is my favourite for sorting because it will keep you very current. For example, sort BUF or Tyler Ennis for the last 10 games of last year's regular season and you will see why he is a good sleeper pick in pools this year.
#3 ESPN Player Profile "Game Logs". I like these because it gives you a game-by-game breakdown of stats including "ice time" (key!). It is a very good tool if you know the player you want to research. You need to be a little skilled in "reading the numbers & trends".
Good work on your part to ask for help. Lots of friendly folks on the site here!!!
Dobber's guide is pretty invaluable, mostly because of the upsides that he lists. Two players with 70 points last year will have hugely different values if one of their upsides is 75 and the other is 95. Its easy enough to look over a list of the top scorers from last year, but this will help you rank them even better.
After you learn who has done well recently, it pays to learn the guys who have high upside. I'd start by looking at all the teams in the guide and becoming familiar with all the names that are listed at 85 or better upside. This will both clue you in to rising young stars and also keep you away from some players who are currently performing near their upside (and so next year will either stay the same or drop). I think that knowing who plays on Getzlaf's line is a lot less valuable than knowing that Bobby Ryan is a rising star who is worth more a lot more than a 64 point player.
Just as a side note, be careful when valuating OLDER players with high upside. Guys like Danny Briere and Olli Jokinen have high upside, but thats only because they've hit high career highs before, not because they're at all likely to repeat. It would be nice to somehow know what the odds are that the listed players will actually hit their upsides, but as a general rule older player who are a couple of seasons removed from their near-upside seasons are unlikely to get back up there. Whereas young players coming off career high season with high listed upsides are great to own.
Ohh and Ill also throw in that going to nhl.com stats and listing by ppg (points per game) is a good way of making sure you dont miss good players who were just injured last year and so might have fallen off your radar.
WOW!! You guys are awesome!
Thats exactly the information I was looking for!
The Line production makes total sense, I will have to get good at using those tools
I also like the idea about points per game on nhl.com....that seems like it could lead to some good players.
Heres a question about up and rising stars..... ultimately the goal is to "WIN THIS SEASON" (unless your the kings rebuilding for 10 years, haha) At what point should I be trying to pick up these up and coming guys, in terms of them actually contributing to winning this season, vs in years down the road?
Again, you guys are awesome, totally inviting and not slamming me for "asking noob questions" like some places will!
Sure - since joining I imagine DobberHockey as a little island where people come for monthly meetings to make each other smart and then everybody goes back to their little towns and WOWs everybody with their skills. :)
re: WIN THIS SEASON
Here are my tips:
1. Draft a balanced team, keeping the following in mind:
2. Draft a few prospects (1-3), 1 of the 3 will probably breakthrough and overperform expectations. IF YOUR TEAM IS DOING WELL, you can trade the non-performing prospects away to a team that is not doing so well and get back overperforming players. IF YOUR TEAM IS NOT DOING WELL, at least you have them as keepers for next year.
2. Draft a few older guys (1-3) if they slip - even if a guy is in his final year (like Lidstrom). IF YOUR TEAM IS DOING WELL, its probably because you took this guy when everybody else let him slip. IF YOUR TEAM IS NOT DOING WELL, at least you can trade him away for a young prospect that isn't producing currently.
3. Draft one or two injury risks (1-2) - guys like Semin, Hemsky, Havlat will all drop a few spots because they are constantly banged up. Do NOT take them all, but do take one or two of them. One of these years, they may play an 80 game schedule and you will get more production out of them than you hoped. THAT could win you a season. IF YOUR TEAM IS DOING WELL, its probably because these player(s) haven't gotten injured. IF YOUR TEAM IS NOT DOING WELL... well, this is one where you kind of get screwed and can't trade them... so don't draft more than two, preferably just one.
4. Draft with positional balance. Understand your number of positions, mark how many players are being counted & determine how many points you can get back on the waiver wire. For example, at the trade deadline last year, my league's highest available C was Vermette (~60pts), highest W was Okposo (~50pts), highest D was Foster (~30pts). When you draft, note that difference... if a 75pt center is available, a 70pt winger is availalbe, and a 40pt defenseman is available... you would take:
??? (Trivia Question for you) ???
follow up question:
How do you weight someone that was a young guy, or maybe an underperforming guy, that really stepped it up in the play offs....do you figure that will get carried onto the next season, or just a fluke? How do you take the playoffs into consideration
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