To rebuild or not?
I'm a fantasy hockey nut and haven't been in a fantasy baseball league in a number of years. I figured I'd roll over here from Dobberhockey, as I've received some great advice there for the last few years! I had the opportunity to take over a "rebuild" team in a well-established, deep, NL-only league. After analyzing the team, I'm thinking I don't necessarily have to go into rebuild mode, and could actually be competitive this season. But, I'd appreciate some outside advice on which direction to take!
Here are the league specs/rules: NL-only, 11 team, 5x5 roto, 6 keepers, can only keep players for two-year contracts. 2 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS, 1 MI, 1 CI, 5 OF, 1 U, 9 P, 6 reserve. The first 23 starters on each team are a combination of players kept and those drafted through an auction, so the first 253 players are either keepers or are auctioned at a $260 cap. Then, there are 6 rounds for the reserve draft. There is also a 3-round farm draft. This is a very deep league!
The guy that owed this team before me made a run for the money last year and came up just short. There were a lot of players on the team in the second year of their contracts that cannot be kept for this season. This team also lost a bunch of players to the AL in the offseason, making for very few keeper options:
Ryan Braun @ $37
Josh Rutledge @ $5
Jovani Gallardo @ $24
The guys that got me into the league are attempting to convince me that I need to trade Braun and some draft picks in order to get up to 6 keepers. But, I'm thinking I could still make a run at some money this season with this plan:
I'll keep Rutledge at $5 as he's clearly a good value. I'll keep Braun at $37, as most projections I've run say he is worth between $40 and $45 and still a good value at that price. Gallardo, on the other hand, is overpriced at $24, so I'll let him go. That means I'll only have two keepers when most others are keeping 6. The upside of this is I'll only have used $42 of my cap space, which will probably be less than every other team and will give me a leg-up at the auction.
Another reason I like this plan is that I have the first picks in the both the reserve draft and the farm draft. I'm thinking I could probably trade the first reserve pick for a decent, cheap keeper. There also seems to be a lot of good, undrafted talent in the farm prospect pool, and I could use that first farm pick on a guy with the best shot to be called up this year.
So, do I trade Braun and picks to get to six keepers, or do I roll with Braun this season and enter the draft with less than six? To rebuild or not to rebuild. Thanks for any advice!
Welcome to these parts.
I would keep Braun unless you're getting tremendous value back. I agree that Gallardo is overpriced at $25, since Braun is $37. Rutledge is a nice value pick at $5 like you said.
What is the actual offer for Braun?
The best offer I have so far is Braun $37 for Ryan Howard $14, Dominic Brown $5, Gregor Blanco $5, and Nolen Arenado $5. That's saving $8 for a total drop in most stats. Their argument is that I need a number of good keepers at good values, and a good prospect like Arenado, going forward.
In fantasy hockey, I almost always agree with the old adage that whoever gets the best player in a trade usually gets the better deal. I'm just unfamiliar with fantasy baseball and want to make sure I cover all my bases (ha!).
I have shopped around the first pick in the reserve draft and the best deal offered so far is both Chris Nelson and Jordan Pacheco, one of which will win the starting 3B job in Colorado this spring. In a league this deep, it seems like it could be a good deal to trade the first reserve pick for a guaranteed starter with good stats, especially when you consider the first reserve pick is technically the 254th player selected.
Keep Braun and Rutledge and keep us posted on how your draft goes, we're always here to help
Thanks for the advice, Mac. I'll be here all season for sure and will be reading your column. Btw, I'm also a Wings fan. Nice to see them finally scoring some goals!
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