Move Miller for a West-Coaster?
I'm looking to make a trade to try and improve my wingers (specifically RW). I'd love to be able to swap a winger for a winger (move Purcell, Conacher, Wheeler, Fleischmann) but I'm not so sure that I won't have to offer up anything else to get a worthy upgrade (Kessel? Backes? Perry?).
I'm currently sitting in 9th out of 12 near the bottom of the barrel in most offensive stats, except SOG, and all Goalie stats as well (though trending upward this week).
I think my D corps is really a standout compared to all the other teams in the league, and I'd like to keep that advantage if possible.
So that leaves me with throwing in a goalie for a package deal. Kipper's injury throws a wrench in things, but I don't think I'd get much for him right now anyway even if he were healthy.
Lindback is still unproven but plays on Tampa and should get lots of Wins (really my only W source now), but if I have to move him I would.
We all know Miller isn't that great now, but he can be. And his name-recognition alone might be enough to swing a trade.
What I'm thinking is maybe offer Purcell/Miller, Conacher/Miller, etc to a team to try and get an upgrade at Wing while getting a West Coast goalie in return (Smith, Rinne, Quick, etc). Maybe even a 2-for-1 or 3-for-2.
Reason being the Eastern Conference seems incredibly high scoring compared to the Western Conference so maybe I'd get a slight Goalie advantage if I have one who doesn't face as many offensive threats at Miller/Lindback will continue to see this season.
Any thoughts or suggestions on this? If you had to move a goalie, which would you try to move now? And who's a good one to target? Keep in mind I'm really looking to give my Wingers a boost by bringing in someone who is 100% starter for me every night.
Thanks for any advice! Much appreciated!
The big thing is you're kinda selling low on Miller at the moment, your trade partners aren't going to be giving you fair market value for a player like Miller with his current stats... and the guys you plan on including (Purcell and Conacher), you're kinda selling high at the moment too, so I don't think you're going to land a top-tiered guy like Rinne/Smith/Quick with what you're offering.
One thing you have to keep in mind is that Miller is a great 2nd half goalie, as long as you can ride it out.
He posted 18-6-5, 2.12 and .930 numbers from Feb onwards last season.
13-8-4, 2.44 and .921 numbers from Feb onwards in 2010-11.
So if you can hold out to the 2nd half, he could be a very solid contributor down the track.
But by all means toss a few lines out there and see what you can catch in return, if you happen to get Rinne/Smith/Quick back in return then go for it.
I realize Miller's value is not at an all-time high, but I think a wise manager would know that he's going to improve as the season goes on.
Ultimately the question is would it be more beneficial to own goalies from the West instead of goalies from the East.
Currently Buffalo is giving up the second-most SOG per game, 32.9 per game which prorates to 2,698 in an 82-game season. That's more than any other season since '05. Will their D start to correct and average that out (to about 2,500 or so), or will they continue letting up this many SOG per game thus increasing the chance of being scored against?
Looking at the teams that have allowed the Lowest SOG against, you're looking at teams like Calgary (176! which is why I plan on keeping Kipper), St Louis, Anaheim, Boston, Nashville, Phoenix, etc).
I could try and hold out and wait for Miller's stats to rise, but as I wait Rinne's, Smith's, Quick's, etc. could be rising too.
And you're absolutely right I'm trying to sell-high on Purcell and Conacher. That's the point, right? Cash in before their numbers regress. To some owners that may be more obvious than to others, but it's not really a benefit to me to wait and sell them for their true-worth.
I dunno to me it just seems like you're wanting a "goalie" from the west only because you think the Western goalies are playing for more defensive teams and allowing less shots, I could see your argument, but most of those stats tend to correct themselves as the year progresses and I don't really see you moving for a "western" goalie just for the sake of moving for a western goalie...
What I'm saying now is Miller doesn't have any trade value based on his stats, the smarter poolie would recognize what I wrote earlier and might buy into him, but as of right now most poolies would look at Miller's stats and say no thanks. Everyone knows that Purcell and Conacher are huge sell high candidates at the moment and they'll treat it as such tacking them on to cover for Miller isn't going to change his value all that much...
As much as you want to "cash in" right now, the reality is people aren't going to really pay full price for them knowing that they're sell high candidates is what I'm saying, so if you're not going to be getting quality value back in return, then why sell them...
I guess what I'm saying is that if I'm a Rinne/Smith/Quick owner and I own one of the "top-tiered" goalies why would I want to move them for such a volatile Miller at the moment? With you only throwing in Conacher/Purcell who I know are "sell high" candidates anyway.
I just think what you're asking for is a bit much, I don't see how Conacher/Miller or Purcell/Miller will land you an winger upgrade plus a Rinne/Smith/Quick, that's just asking for too much IMO, but hey you never know each league is different and you might have someone in your league that would go for it...
Do you think trying to trade Lindback right now would be an option then, or will I be better off holding onto him? His value has been steadily increasing.
What about trying to package him plus a forward or two for some buy-low players?
There's a guy in my league who's really struggling in all Goalie cats. He has Lundqvist, Holtby, Reimer. Anyway I'd be able to pry Lundqvist away from him before his value trends up where we all know it should be?
It's possibly worth noting that he's not a big hockey fan and this is his first time doing fantasy hockey. Also worth noting that I picked Fasth up yesterday so I now have 4 goalies.
He also has Backes and Kessel, two players I'd be interested in acquiring. What should I go for? The forward, or the goalie? Both? I could take on Holtby in the trade as if I'm downgrading but then just drop him.
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