Have been stuck on this one for awhile - help needed
So you know the feeling when you've drafted a prospect and watched him develop for some time and then you get a trade offer and you think "Gee, I gotta take this one. I love my guy but the offer is too good to pass". That was the case a couple of weeks ago when I got offered P.Kane for Dougie Hamilton. Of course I accepted. This time, I have another offer: my Strome for his Hamonic. I've been mulling it over for some time and can't quite make up my mind so I thought I'd present my thinking to the Dobber community and see what feedback I get.
My league is a salary cap one with G, A, STPTS, +/- and PIM (Hits and BS are counted too but they only weight 0.25 whereas the other cats are weighted at 1 (don't ask why, it ended up that way after a couple of changes).
Strome's cap hit over next 3 years - $1744167
Hamonic's - $1500000-$2000000 (guess for next contract)
Strome expectation (full season, lots of room for variance):
2013 - 15 G, 25 A, 8 STPTS, 30 PIM (no clue how to predict this, really, but 30 seems reasonable)
2014 - 20 G, 30 A, 12 STPTS, 30 PIM
2015 - 25 G, 35 A, 15 STPTS, 30 PIM
Of course, this is an idealistic progression and unlikely to materialize but I'm not sure I have enough data to come up with a more accurate prediction. If I'm comparing him with Tavares, who is the better player, it took Tavares 3 years to get 81 points so I figure it might take Strome 3 years to get to 60 points. He's not as good as Tavares but he will have Tavares to play with, which should help his numbers.
Hamonic expectation (full season, higher certainly):
2013 and onward - 8 G, 22 A, 5 STPTS, 80 PIM
So Hamonic is a decent cheap-ish d-man who has the PIM factor on his side (and also Hits and BS but these don't weigh as much) but on the other hand, he's unlikely to produce more than 30 points very often.
Strome could be a 60 point player in 3 years but does not get a lot of PIM and has a higher risk associated with him.
I will have some cap issues next year so having a serviciable d-man making less than $2 mil will be very handy. By the way, I have put Strome on the block and I've only ane one offer so far - this one.
So if my expectations are to go by, I think I'd rather have Hamonic than Strome. I don't usually look past 3 years and I'd rather have Hamonic's production than Strome's. What do you guys think? Am I undervaluing Strome? Overvaluing Hamonic. My fear is that Strome becomes a 70+ point player sooner than I expect.