Help analyze my scoring setup
drafting for a new league tonight-- 20 team, head-to-head points league. 15 man rosters, keep 2.
start 2 c, 2 lw, 2 rw, 4 d, 1 g. 5 bench spots.
scoring values are:
Goals = 3
Assists = 2
Plus/minus = 0.3
Penalty Minutes = 0.2
Power Play Goals = 0.6
Power Play Assists = 0.4
Short Handed Goals = 3
Short Handed Assists= 2
Faceoffs Won= 0.1
Shots on goal= 0.1
Hits = 0.2
Blocked Shots = 0.3
Wins = 5
Goals Against = -0.96
Shutouts = 4
Overtime Losses = 2.5
the obscure point values make it tough for me to figure out what kind of player this format favors.
I'm thinking my first 2 picks should be drafted according to the fact that we keep 2 players; then I will build around them. Ideally, that'll be a star forward and a goalie. Getting a good goalie is going to be huge in a 20 team league.
But, I am having a tough time analyzing this format. I know a lot of the guys on here are good at that. If someone could take a look at this setup and weigh in on how they would approach this draft, that would be great.
i've also never done a 20 team draft-- i don't know my draft position, so it's hard to plan ahead. I'm going to have a lot of time between picks so I need to draft to fill positions and not sacrifice depth.
Thanks for the input fellas
That's tough scoring so I'm going to pro-rate it and divide everything by 3.
G = 1
A = .67
PIM = 0.067 (15 PIM = 1pt, 150 PIM Goon = +10pts)
PPG = 0.2 (5 PPG = 1pt, 15 PPG guy = +3pts)
PPA = 0.13 (7.5 PPA = 1pt, 15 PPA guy = +2pts)
Faceoffs Won= 0.033 (30 FOW = 1pt, 600 FOW center = +20pts)
SOG= 0.033 (30 SOG = 1pt, 300 SOG sniper = +10pts)
Hits = 0.067 (15 HITS = 1pt, 150 Hits = +10pts)
BkS = 0.1 (10 Bks = 1pt, 200 BkS = +20pts)
Wins = 1.67pts (40W goalie = 67pts)
For the next part, let's consider a 2.00GAA goalie who saves 28/30 shots per game.
Goals Against = -0.23 (In a typical game, 30 shots, 2 ga = -0.46)
Saves =0.0267 (In a typical game, 30 shots, 28 saves = 0.75)
*This means that the average goalie will make about 0.29pts per game in saves, not much. Not nearly enough to be significant.
Shutouts = 1.33pts (6 SO = 8pts)
OK... here's what I get from these setting.
(BTW, I HATE, HATE, HATE these leagues... they only reward a mathematician that actually programs everything into an Excel spreadsheet... the smartest hockey mind won't even necessarily win these pools).
To win, you'll need:
1. TOP CENTERS & WING-ELIGIBLE CENTER that take lots of FOW.
What is your fantasy-provider (Fantrax? CBS?).
Guys that take FOW, possibly guys that HIT too, if possible. Print out a list of top FOW players. In round 7 or 8, a guy like Tomas Plekanec is going to be a decent pick. Also, it is CRITICAL that you draft guys you can slot in your wing that take face-offs. CRITICAL. There are too many points available for FOW (you commish effed this up, you take advantage).
2. TOP DEFENSE that gets Hits & BkS: 20 teams x 4D= 80D. There is an enormous drop-off in defenseman talent. I'd get two defensemen STUDS that do everything, includes blocks & hits. There's FOUR I love: Weber, Letang, Byfuglien, Chara. If this is a keeper, do them in that order. Karlsson too. Go to NHL.com, get familiar with real-time stats. I'd get two elite defensemen early and two defensemen VERY, VERY, VERY late that get Hits/BkS/PIM: Mark Stuart and Kyle Quincey will fit this bill very nicely. Adam McQuaid & Dan Girardi also work nicely.
3. You will NOT need a top goalie to win this league.
The best goalies put up 40W in a season... that's only 67pts.
A 40G/40A skater will score 67pts & there are a lot more peripherals for skaters to add points.
Here's how I'd probably draft this league, use this as a GUIDE, not as a set-draft-strategy:
1. ELITE CENTER (Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Giroux, Tavares) or Karlsson
2. TOP FOW CENTER (Toews, H.Sedin, Backes) or ELITE DEFENSEMAN (Letang/Weber/Byfuglien/Chara)
3. ELITE DEFENSEMAN (Letang/Weber/Buff/Chara)
4. Here, I'd make sure you have 2 guys that take FOW, 2 defensemen. Ideally, you should have one wing-eligible center by now. (Backes, Benn, Datsyuk, Zetterberg - all qualify in most leagues)
5. GOALIE. I think the top 20 goalies will be picked over by now... but if there is still a Lindback, Varlamov, Pavelec, Nabokov, or Crawford on the table... that's fine.
6-8. Fill out your wings with guys that take FOW & HIT. In the 8th round, a guy like Martin Hanzal is an absolutely fine pick.
Last three rounds: Take 3 defensemen that get lots of HITS/BkS/PIM. Focus on HITS, they are consistent. Luke Schenn is another great pick here along with Mark Stuart, Francois Beauchemin, Kyle Quicney, McQuaid, Meszaros, Robidas. Do not target points with these guys... just HITS/BkS/PIM... there's enough points for those things alone.
OK, good luck.
ps. If this is a "big-money" league, go over to FantasyHockeyGeek and input all this information, trust me... it's worth it for a league like this. (and I'm not affiliated with FHG, nor do I try to suggest people should pay money to win their leagues... but this scoring is just silly and you need help with it.)
Thankfully Pengwin did all the math before I got here. I'd go with what that says. :)
As always Pengwin nails the math and then turns the math into useable advice for us mere mortals. I'd suggest fantasyhockeygeek like the others as it's under $10 for the year. Input your scoring setup and it will spit out rankings. It does 2 great things:
1. It does the math for you allowing you to figure out which players are valuable.
2. It's based on very solid projections. You can write all the formulas you want but if your projections are way off your picks will be wrong. hockeypoolgeek has some solid projections (including dobber's in some categories) that are great.
The only thing fantasyhockeygeek may not do is bump C/W eligible forwards, who as Pengwin pointed out are huge in this league, so keep that in mind when following Pengwin's strategy as set out above.
haha, this is funny-- I almost mentioned pengwin in my original post to try and get him to reply cause i knew he would have a good analysis. I always see him break down formats really well.
Thanks so much for the help, it is much appreciated. I am glad you pointed out the goaltending thing-- so many leagues give goalies such a high premium, it'll be nice to get by with average goalies. That's ideally how I like to draft anyway-- get quality skaters and then pick goalies based on their system.
The league is on ESPN, which I'm not a huge fan of. But, I know they have a handful of guys with dual eligibility.
So, I think my approach will be exactly how you outlined. I suppose my first pick will be an elite center. Pick number 2 will be one of those big 4 dmen, or another elite center, if by chance one slips through the cracks. I highly doubt that'll be the case, but in a 20 team league it all depends on draft position.
From there, I'll start taking inventory on what goalies are available/how many teams still need to get a goalie. I'm not going to jump at all of the premiere wingers in the first 3 rounds, because like you said, a 60pt player with decent peripheral stats will carry a team in this league.
I think I might give fantasyhockeygeek a try, but I'm curious about the rankings... I'm assuming they are worth following? I only ask because sites like NHL.com, Yahoo, all the mainstream ones, have terrible rankings. Just the fact fantasyhockeygeek is endorsed on this board, however, gives me the comfort that it'll probably give me a leg up on the competition. This is the only league I am in where I can confidently say that I am the only one who uses Dobberhockey. I'm hoping it'll pay off!
So you can actually choose a different basis for the rankings and compare them or even import your projections and base the rankings on them. The main benefit of fantasyhockeygeek is that it saves you doing all the math and calculations ..... it will tell you which player (based on a given set of rankings) is the highest scoring in your pool. It will also show you comparative value across positions etc.
Im pretty sure they have a free trial period so you can check it out with no risk.
yea, I just did it for my league... I used last season stats. Verryyy interesting results. As Pengwin said, Faceoffs are HUGE. Staal was ranked 4th overall (granted Crosby, Toews and a few others are down pretty far due to missed time) but there are 7 dman in the top 20, not counting Buff and Letang. When they are healthy they are obviously top 20.
So, if I don't get a great C, I might be forced to take a dman first round... is that stupid? I'm thinking I might be able to wait until 2nd round, because I doubt everyone realizes how valuable the big ones are. But if I don't get Malkin/Crosby/Stamkos/Toews/Giroux/Staal/Tavares, I think the next best player is a dman.
I was curious so since I have a test league already created in Yahoo, I added your league settings to see how it would look. A few facts/observations:
- The highest forward was Malkin with 413 points
- Not surprisingly, most of the top point getters are centres
- If Crosby remains healthy, he will be the top player by a significant margin due to faceoffs won. In a full season, he would end up with 400-500 more FOW than Stamkos.
- Those amongst top 25 in your settings but could be great value in middle rounds: P.Bergeron (6th highest forward), Elias (10th), Pavelski (14th), Weiss (17th), Couture (18th), Plekanec (19th).
- The best non-faceoff guy was Neal (11th - 296 points)
- After Neal, there is a small, gradual decrease between following players. No big gaps for awhile.
- The highest defenseman was not surprisingly Karlsson with 258 points.
- A significant drop off after the top 4-5 (Karlsson, Weber, Chara, Phaneuf, Edler, who had 224 points)
- Good value in top 25: Wideman (10th), Seabrook (12th), Girardi (14th), McDonagh (21st), Timonen (23rd).
- In 10/11, Giordano was the 7th highest D.
- Lundqvist was the highest with 239 points
- 5 goalies had over 200 points
- 10th had 173 points (Lehtonen), Price was 20th with 133 points (which would be the worst starter in your league). Between 10th-20th, that's a 40 point difference spread over 14 weeks (~3 per week). Given that goalies account for only one starting slot out of 11, you can easily wait for one after filling out your top forwards/defensemen.
My advice (similar to Pengwin's, since we like looking at the numbers):
- Top forwards/centres first
- Top defense next
- One goalie if many are off the board or value forwards. But if still high FOW available (Bergeron, Plekanec, Weiss etc), go for them first.
- Value defensemen
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