Do I keep Getzlaf or Rask
 

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So I need some opinions on who my final keeper should be. Here is my analysis:

I'm projecting Getzlaf to score 74 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 120 forwards are picked.

I'm projecting Rask to score 92 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 20 goalies are picked. That would make him the next best goalie after Lundy, Quick, and Rinne.

I have estimated who will be left in the draft after everyone picks their keepers, and I am sure that Getzlaf would be the best player available. I pick 5th and would not get him back. He should go first overall. Other availables are Iggy, Heatley, Ryan, Couture, J.Staal, Yakupov, E.Kane...

After some casual conversations with other GM's I know that the guys picking 1-4 will be keeping a goalie. So they would probably not be picking a goalie with their first selection. I also know that the availables should be Bryz, Smith/Fleury(GM is dropping one), Kipper, Brodeur, Price, Lehtonen...


So here are my questions:

1. Who would you keep if you were me?
2. Is Rask a question mark? Or is he the next big thing?
3. Am I a fool to think that he will fall back to me at #5.
4. Which result is better? Keep Getzlaf and draft one of the goalies, or Keep Rask and draft one of the forwards?

You have 3 sick centers and 1 sick goalie. Keep Rask. He may endup being just as good or better than the other goalies available. Lord knows he's on a loaded team. Besides, if you let him go, there's no guarantee that you'll get another chance to have two sick goalies.

1. Getzlaf - With the situation you presented, it makes more sense to keep Getzlaf. He will be the best player available if you let him go. If you let Rask go, you say the first 4 owners in line are likely to not pick goalies, giving you the chance to draft Rask back to your squad or draft Price.

2. I don't think Rask is much of a question mark, it's his time in Boston, and I very much doubt anything gets in his way this time around. He should be one of the best keeper goalies for years to come.

3. I don't think it's foolish to think he could drop back to you at 5th overall. You say there are 4 guys ahead of you who kept goalies and are likely to want to add elsewhere, on top of that there is another great goalie option out there in Price, I like your chances at landing one of them; then I do getting Getzlaf back if he were to be your drop.

4. The better result is keeping Getzlaf, in my opinion. With the scnario you presented it doesn't seem like there will be as good of forwards available, as there will be goalies. I still think very highly of Getzlaf even after last years big disappointment. With the 5 pick you have a good shot at getting Rask back, or getting Price who is every bit as good if not better, and failing to get them Fleury is a possible option, and if that to fails, Kipper makes for an excellent one year stop gap.

id keep rask.

I'd keep Rask here. I understand your logic in wanting to keep Getz but I think you are putting yourself at a much bigger risk not keeping a goalie at all since you start 2.

Definitely keep a goalie.

And everything as it is right now, I'd keep Price before Rask.

1. Rask would be my keeper here. Because your scoring system only counts wins and SO for goalies there is no question that he is the better option over guys like Price, Bryzgalov and Smith.

2. For me Rask is just about as solid as it can get. Who else does Boston have to turn to? Even if his peripheries are terrible he will get the starts and wins, because Boston is stacked.

3. If I were one of the top 4 team and I saw that Rask was available I'd take him, even if I was already keeping a goalie. Because you start two goalies, having two #1 tenders could be absolutely huge. I would question anyone that takes a potential 74 point Getzlaf over a potential 92 point Rask. He could fall to you, but I'd be surprised.

4. Given the choice between Getzlaf + Price/Fleury/Bryzgalov and Rask + Couture/Iginla/Ryan I'd go with Rask. To my mind, the available forwards have a better chance of equaling what Getzlaf will probably provide, whereas the available goalies will be hard pressed to equal what Rask will probably provide.

maf got 93 points under your scoring last year 42 W and 3 SO

i wonder that you arent overestimating what raask can do

down the line maybe but how many games do you expect him to be able to play his first season

it took 64 starts for maf to get 42 wins

how many of the other 9 teams do you expect to keep goalies

All the other teams are keeping either 1 or 2 goalies.

When I said 92 points for Rask, that's prorated for 82 game schedule.

when you say 82 game schedule do you mean raask plays 82 games or do you mean 1 hockey season ie raask plays 55-65 games