Gibson or Subban??
Who would you rather have stashed away on your prospects list?
Gibson or Subban??
Subban is better trade bait.
I'd rather have Gibson, big confident and is a world class prospect in the pipes. Either way you can't go wrong but I see him being the future between the pipes in Anaheim.
another vote for Gibson.
It's an interesting question especially considering how young these two are. I'd say they are both blue-chip type goalie prospects but that doesn't always mean much. For every Tuukka Rask there's a Justin Pogge or two out there. The reality is you probably can't go wrong either way although ED does offer an interesting solution and I'm not inclined to disagree.
The big thing for me is that it will probably be years before you see either of these guys permanently in the NHL and potentially longer before we see them starting. Subban is going to receive the Rask treatment in Boston, meaning he'll play at least a couple of years in the AHL before making his way up and pushing for starts. Boston won't hand over the reins until they are certain he's up to the task, and he still has to overcome Rask at that point.
Gibson doesn't have a huge roadblock at the end road in Anaheim the way that Subban does in Boston but the Ducks do have a heavily stocked goaltending cupboard so he's going to be in tough to simply make his way through the system. At the NHL level you are probably looking at the two 30-year-olds - Hiller and Fast - holding down the NHL jobs for a while. Then you've got Andersen who is shredding it in his first North American season and Bobkov at the AHL level. Jeff Deslauriers is also in the way but as an upcoming free agent they probably let him walk.
There is a chance that Fasth fails at the NHL level and is let go so that simple internal promotion clears the path for Gibson to get an AHL job when he turns pro next season but if that doesn't happen then Gibson might be starting off his pro career in the ECHL. That's not a terrible fate as it says nothing of his talent and it's certainly better for him to be getting starts than to be toiling on the bench somewhere but it's hard not to look at the Ducks pipeline and not see how long we could be waiting for Gibson to arrive.
Long story short, you won't be seeing production out of either of these guys any time soon so maybe you want to look at who is going to fetch the higher price in trade.
It's also interesting to see this posted right after Subban hit a wall in an important game.
thought it would be interesting to go back and list all the supposed blue chip prospects that were drafted. I'll base it from 2010 back(Even that is a little too early). I'll just base in on Goalies taken in 1st Round & some early 2nd rdrs and go back to 2004 as that seems to be a good length.
From this we can get an idea of the journey(how long it takes) and/or if the chances are really that great a so called blue chipper becomes a top NHL goalie.
2010 - Jack Campbell, Mark Visentin
2009 - Mikko Koskinen(1st pick in 2nd rd)
2008 - Chet Pickard, Thomas McCollum, Jacob Markstrom(1st pick in 2nd rd)
2007 - Joel Gistedt(6th pick in 2nd rd)
2006 - Jonathan Bernier, Riku Helenius, Semyon Varlamov, Leland Irving,
Michal Neuvirth(4th pick in 2nd rd)-
2005 - Carey Price, Tuukka Rask, (2nd rdrs: Tyler Plante, Jeff Frazee, Ondrej Pavelec)
2004 - Al Montoya,Devan Dubnyk, Marek Schwarz, Cory Schneider(2nd rdrs: David Shantz, Justin Peters
My thoughts are while the fair majority havent really panned out(or the jury is still out on) the few that have took sometime.
TRask - 7 years? Finally gets his real chance this year.
Cory Schneider - 8 years?
Devan Dubnyk - 8 years - Not confirmed or proven #1 yet.
JBernier - 6 years and not closer to an opportunity.
And for Rask and Schneider this is just the beginning. They really havent proven anything yet(Ditto for Dubnyk)
Then you have the Montoyas, Schwarz(bust) and even Irving who people held onto so long based on their blue chip status.
I dunno maybe Eric is on to something?
It's probably a toss up. Just a tid bit, I typically like to " trade into a goalie" rather than own prospect goalies. I'd load up on an extra player or two ( F, or D) and down the line when I see a prospect goalie start to materialize then pounce on a deal before his value goes insane. I've been burned to many times in the past to " sit" on a prospect goalie. Sure, both these goalies " should" be solid NHL'rs but I can find 20 other prospects that will have more value on a team and you can do something with before I plug in a prospect goalie and " hope"....
BUT to answer your question, I'd go with ED and side with Subban, I think he can be traded and fetch a solid return.
Currently there are too many variables in their career paths to predict who will go what way... like others are saying...
I must also add a hit to Subban in that Team Canada Goalies seem to only be about 35-40% end up being NHL capable starters according to history... USA is marginally higher at about 40-50% (Sweden and Finland are the best Followed by the Czechs) according to #s I researched and discussed in October with Justin Goldman...
Main reasons I found in my research, Sweden, Finland and Czechs have a star in their systems and they use them multiple years then they eventually come to the NHL... Where as Canada has 1 or 2 new goalies in the system every season.. US opperates similerly...
None of that has anything to do with the talents of either 2...
Personally I like Subban's swager and rawness over Gibson who is rather polished...
Gibson likes like he is what he does at the moment... he will gain size, he will make little gains and become a workhorse... Subban has a love for the game he wears on the sleeve, is fun to watch, but has several holes that will be patched hopefully as he develops... He is a Workhorse in the OHL but I don't know that he stays that way in Pro due to the fact he is not really economical in his game style.
But as pointed out its a 6-8 year expected arrival time for both...
The main advise I can give people on this is look at the makeup of your lg and know your managers... these are more less trading peices unless you plan on waiting...
If your lg is more US based... Gibson likely carries more value...
If your lg is more Canadian based... Subban likely carries more value...
Also knowing how your managers do thier scoutings...
If they just are passers by and watch the WJC, Gibson likely has more value due to recent showings...
If they look deep into stat analysis and how they do over full seasons in reglar lg action, Subban is likely more attractive as his #s are posted on a worse Club team (the previous 2 years)...
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