Jays close to acquiring R.A. Dickey
I just arrived at my hotel for the night in Punta Gorda, Florida and I had to update you guys on this.
For those of you that think he's a one year wonder, I can tell you that's not the case.
Check out Dickey's stats the in last three years of his career.
2010: 27 GS, 11 W, 174.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 104 K, 1.19 WHIP
2011: 32 GS, 8 W, 208.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, 134 K, 1.23 WHIP
2012: 33 GS, 20 W, 233.2 IP, 2.73 ERA, 192 K, 1.05 WHIP
Check out these stats via FanGraphs.
Fastball- 14.0% (83.4 MPH average velocity),
Knuckleball- 85.4% (77.1 MPH average velocity)
Changeup- 0.6% (75.3 MPH average velocity)
Considering the Jays are loaded in the outfield and still have D.J. Davis in the system, Gose is expendable IMO. One of the catchers can go too and I'm sure they'll get another player in the deal.
Alex Anthopoulos will get a good deal done here, I'm a fan of this if it happens.
I'd rather keep the assets to be honest. Dickey is 38, and while knuckleballers' arms tend to hold up longer, this team has finished 4th in the division three years in a row. They made lots of improvements over the offseason, but they have still proven absolutely nothing.
Let's start the season, keep the kids, see what happens and then they can go all in if the team is at the right stage mid-season.
Especially with the rumors that D'Arnaud is involved as well.
Also, I don't think DJ Davis makes Gose expendable. I think Gose is a lot better of a prospect at this point.
A lot to consider here. Obviously prospects like D'Arnaud and Gose are expendable given the Jays' depth at their respective positions but injuries happen so you can never have too much depth. There's also the fact that these guys play premium positions. I just don't like the idea of selling too many top prospects in an effort to go for it now because you just might end up with a Loaiza-Young type trade where you end up lamenting the deal in just a couple years. And this is compounded by the fact that Dickey is a 39-year-old only signed to a one-year deal. Do the Jays really want to give up all those years of team control from two top prospects for what could be only one year from Dickey?
On the flip side I am very much in favour of going for it, especially when you have a team that hasn't made the playoffs in two decades. The Jays definitely need more help if they want to solidify themselves as contenders and that help probably needs to come in the form of pitching depth.
Now the biggest issue is whether or not Dickey can continue his performance but I'd say for the short term I'm not concerned. As a knuckleballer he's more like a 29-year-old but as a knuckleballer he might also have a tough time at Rogers Center. His split stats for the past three years indicate some difficulties playing on the road. I'm not privy to the advanced stats stuff but I'd imagine Dickey benefited a good deal from playing in the Mets' cavernous stadium. And there is always the AL vs. NL difference.
I think Dickey's a good pitcher but damn, two top prospects for just one year?
The final thought goes to the reports that the Jays are trying to expand the deal. If they can do that and perhaps bring back a little more pitching depth then I could get behind this a little more. I saw in the comments on TSN that Matt Harvey's name is getting tossed around. Not sure what else they'd need to give up to make that happen but Harvey's name is at least intriguing even if the idea is pie in the sky.
Not to mention the loss of prospects, but paying a guy who'll be 38 soon $30M for 2 more years? What the hell man? Did the Blue Jays ownership sell their souls to the devil for unlimited payroll funds? Are they aiming for $130M in team payroll next season?
Instead of selling off 2 of your best (and most valuable) prospects, I would rather see AA go sign a free agent starter like Edwin Jackson to fill that #5 spot. I'm sorry but I see Dickey as a one year wonder as far as his Cy Young ability.
Is he a good #5 pitcher, sure on this roster but not for that price. I would take a pass on this deal. You need an arm in that slot, not a name that you can say won a Cy Young award in previous years with another team.
Talk about selling your soul to the devil! Up until about age 34, Dickey wasn't even a regular starter. I don't even know if you'd call him a mediocre pitcher. His numbers sucked. Then, suddenly he drops his era below 3 consistently and wins a Cy young at 38.
Who DOES that? Guy suddenly becomes a stud in his mid thirties. I've never seen a stat sheet like that. In any sport.
As much as I want more pitching depth, I would not make this trade. Not for the names that are being mentioned. No way.
Absolutely make the acquisition.....When you make the splash the jays did and can further improve your club, you have to do it. You could throw that knuckleballer into the current rotation and it would create such a change of pace for opposing hitters it would be lethal.
JJ, Buehrle, Dickey, Morrow, RR.
Both catchers cannot stay. In addition, if need be, Gose is not seeing regular playing time and speed is easy to acquire.
You do not have a window like this very often and especially if AA can sweet'n the deal?
boys, Dickey has only really gotten control of the knuckler since 2010. prior to that he was a mostly nothing and ignored career. since May 2010 his numbers have been excellent, just look at Mac's stats that he put up for you.
this is not a 1 yr wonder, this is a guy who's finally put it together and is poised to show you that there's more of the same readily available.
now as far as the other end of the idea is concerned, i've been doing some other reading on the matter and it's looking like it'll ONLY be D'Arnaud on this one and will NOT be including Gose. i read one other report that said that the Jays are also looking for a prospect back in addition to Dickey ... and i'd sure love that guy to be Matt Harvey although i don't see that happening at all.
finally, if you're looking you're going to be on the cusp of winning then you do all that you can to get there. a move like this is exactly what the doctor ordered. if you have a shot then you take the shot. i'm actually a little dumbfounded by Jays fans who are saying that you don't make this move, this move is exactly the sort of move that the Jays should be looking into.
Is Dickey really that much better than some of the free agents available? This strikes me as not that much different a situation than what most people run into in their fantasy leagues where they immediately decide to splurge on a name product giving up assets needlessly when what they should be doing is searching the waiver wire for the next big thing.
Dickey was phenomenal last season but let's look at some of the free agents that the Jays could sign instead without giving up any assets:
Dickey - 3.3 averageWAR for the past three years
Marcum - 2.6 averageWAR for the past three years
Lohse - 3.0 averageWAR for the past two years (injuries limit his sample size)
Jackson - 3.5 averageWAR for the past three years
Now obviously Wins Above Replacement should not be the lone stat you look at but I feel it's a very good stat because it shows value beyond some of the useless raw numbers and gets down to brass tax - how will this player affect the team's win total.
As you can clearly see Dickey isn't even the best of the group. He was phenomenal last season with a 4.6 WAR but what are the odds we see that again? This is totally a buy high scenario.
Now maybe the Jays can't lure Marcum back or Lohse or Jackson to town without overpaying. I don't know the inner workings of this deal but what I do know is that money is apparently no longer much of an issue Jays. They seem intent on spending for a winner. So if they are going to spend why spend AND give up other assets. Dickey is not so good he's irreplaceable. This is not the Jays going out and acquiring a 25-year-old ace in the midst of his prime.
I just think that you'd rather overpay for one of the other available options and roll the dice and see where you are at. If that move fails at least you still have assets on the farm to bail yourself out. If the Jays go in reverse and make this trade for Dickey they'll have used assets unnecessarily and also cost themselves the chance to course correct if the season goes south.
And having said all that if they do do a deal where they get Dickey for just D'Arnaud or do a deal where they get Dickey and a good young pitcher for D'Arnaud and Gose then I can understand but selling the farm just for Dickey on a one-year deal seems incredibly narrow-minded and short-sighted.
I would be ok with a DArnaud for Dickey type trade in one scenario:
The Jays are in 1st place at the trade deadline next season.
Then you're on the cusp. Then you go all in.
Otherwise it's all guess work and hoping that your trades made you significantly better than last year. In that scenario I don't think you give up your best young assets.
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