In a short season, better off drafting hot starters?
I'm sure Dobber will cover this in one of his articles, but with the latest negotiation talks talking about a shortened 56 game schedule, does it change your drafting techniques?
There are guys that typically start out hot out of the gate, and then there are those that are habitual second halfers. What super stars (typically drafted in the top 2-3 rounds) are you going to stay away from, and what guys are going to move up your draft board with a 56 game season?
Yes go after fast starters, stay away from guys like Iginla or Patrick Kane.
Looking at it from a different perspective, given this is not the usual preparation for a season, I wonder if looking at hot/cold starters of the past will be as relevant. You have players just waiting/practicing, playing in the AHL/KHL etc and this is different than other seasons. Personally I won't be looking into old trends as they may not have as much of an effect, if at all.
Luongo = bad.
Getz has been a slow starter as well, but I'm with Horrorfan, I'm not sure it'll be as relevant. Depends on the level of preparation each player has been a part of.
I'd be more interested in guys that can carry-over chemistry from their current situations.
For example, Edmonton's PP is basically already playing together in OKC. That's gotta help.
I'd also think youngsters and hopeful rookies are less likely to earn a spot with a short training camp -- coaches might be more likely to go with that they know.
not only players but teams.
toronto usually has a good start before the wheels come off. could they make the playoffs?
some pools count playoffs so you could look to fast/slow starting teams as well.
1. I agree past trends of fast/slow will be less important. What's more important to me is what players have been doing during the long offseason.
1. Roto v. Head-2-Head. In roto I'd prefer guys playing in Europe or the AHL. They are in game shape and will miss fewer steps in the first month. However in Head-2-Head (where fantasy playoffs are key) I think fresh guys have an edge. During the fantasy playoffs these guys will be on games 45-56 whereas guys who played in Europe will be on games 75+.
2. Rookies (and young guns). Most of these guys are playing in the AHL (and a few overseas). I'd expect a big fall-off for such players in the second half, especially rookies coming from 40-50 game seasons last year. For example, Justin Schultz is coming off a 45 game season. If the NHL starts he'll likely play 80+ games between AHL and NHL, combine that almost twice as long season with the fact half the league will be fresher than him and I can see a big fall-off down the stretch for guys like Schultz, including increased likelihood of nagging injuries.
3. Off-Season Surgery. Obviously their stock rises. Quick, Kesler, Gaborik were all supposed to be out to start the season, if you're using rankings based on an 82 game schedule these guys get a huge bump (especialy Kesler and Gaborik)
4. Deep Playoff Runs. Usually Stanley Cup hangovers lead to slow starts, with the lengthy layoff I don't see that in itself being a factor this season.
5. Band-Aid Boys. Higher risk higher reward in my opinion. If the season is more games per night anyone with any nagging injuries is more likely to re-injure or play through the nagging, hurting production. However those guys who just can't seem to make 82 games ever may be able to make 60 games
If 8 people flip pennies, each 3 times... statistical numbers suggest the following may happen:
1 person will flip: heads, heads, heads
1 person will flip: heads, heads, tails
1 person will flip: heads, tails, heads
1 person will flip: heads, tails, tails
1 person will flip: tails, tails, tails
1 person will flip: tails, tails, heads
1 person will flip: tails, heads, tails
1 person will flips: tails, heads, heads
Those are the 8 possibilities of flipping a coin 3 times.
Where am I going with this... OK.
Pretend Heads = Hot.
Pretend Tails = Cold.
Regardless of what has happened in the previous 3 flips... the 4th flip has a 50% shot at being heads, 50% shot at being tails.
Back to hockey.
Most people that know me, know that I am a numbers-based person.
I love looking for trends & stats that can help us forecast/predict.
There are a couple (seemingly) "trends" (?) that I don't buy into:
1. Home/Road point-splits for skaters.
I've played a lot of hockey in my life. Whether you play at one rink or another doesn't matter much for scorers. If you investigate 100 players, you will find somebody who's extreme is home, somebody who's extreme is road. That's just how Gaussian distribution of statistics fall. I put no stock in those stats. Goalies... mmm, maybe a little more. [Goaltenders are mental-cases who could actually perform better based on pressure. ex. Phoenix = No pressure. Their goaltenders do well. Also, some goalie feel "comfortable" at home... and can play better there. Some goalies feel "pressure" at home, due to fan passion... maybe they play worse there. Case-by-case, I could see looking into it.]
2. Hot/cold starts or "month-based" performance.
Again... if you look at 100 people, somebody is going to flip that "Head/Hot" in the month of March 3-years in a row.
Should we assume that the player is going to be HOT again this comin March?
NO - I wouldn't change my valuation of a player because they have some past "trend" of "hot starts" or "cold starts".
Three-or-four years of hot starts is still just 3 or 4 coin flips of "heads"... somebody is going to do it.
There's NO guarantee that they will do it again.
I wouldn't look in to things too much, maybe in a situation where you're in a position where you have two guys in mind, but other than that not a good strategy in my mind.
For me doesn't matter when the season starts, I'd want to draft the team, I would have drafted if the season was starting on schedule.
If its me, I am focusing on the guys who have been playing overseas or in the AHL. These guys will be in game shape out of the gate. Injuries would be my biggest concern and for the guys who are just skating with team mates while the lockout goes on, they are the greatest at risk. I can see plenty of pulled groins and hip flexors in the first couple weeks.
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