Prospect value: An Experiment (mods, can we sticky this please?)
For some odd reason, I recently found some old hockey cards in a lunchroom at work. 2001 Topps I think they were. There was a Colorado Avalanche young stars card featuring Serge Aubin and Ville Nieminen. The blurbs on each suggested that they were bound for greatness, and in Aubin's case, the words "All-star ballots" were used.
It got me thinking. I know we overvalue prospects sometimes, and massively undervalue others, but by how much? I propose an experiment. A long experiment. Let's look at a group of prospects this week. I will give you 20 names, choosing guys of various ages, various rounds of the draft, etc. Some of them will be guys who are still young but have a lot of NHL games under their belt. You tell me for each guy how many points you expect him to put up in the 2014-15 season. If you choose to, you can also add what role you expect the player to fill in that season (ie. second line winger) and what other categories you expect him to excel in (ie. 100+ hits) Then let's hold on to this thread, and check back in the summer of 2015 to see how close we were on all of these guys. We can look at things like average points predicted for a player vs. actual production, etc. It's a long, drawn-out experiment, but I think the eventual results could be very interesting. Besides, we are still locked out, so we need to do something right?