Rate my Team: H2H league
We start 2C, 2LW 2RW, 3 F, 4 D, 2G
Categories: G, A, +/-, P, PIM, Special Teams Points, SOG
W, GAA, Sv%, Shut Outs
C: Toews, Krejci, Skinner (LW), Ennis
LW: Lupul, Moulson, J. Jokinen
RW: Neal, Kessel, Burrows, Havlat, C. Stewart, Gionta
D: Weber, Keith, Carlson, Whitney, Gardiner, Faulk
G: Miller, Rask, Anderson, Neuvirth
I picked 5th and took Neal - I'm hoping he's good for 90 points, 90 PIMs, 300+ shots while going plus and being a STP maven with Crosby, Malkin and Tanger.
I'm a little nervous about my 4th D, but I'm hoping one of Whitney, Gardiner and Faulk will pan out and be reliable. No one wanted to touch Christ Stewart but I thought he was a late draft steal if he can do 55 points and 140 PIMs.
Would love to hear what other people think, I'm hoping I'll get to put this team in to action at least.
How many people in this league?
Originally Posted by bowlercoaster
First thoughts...I think Neal was way to early to take 5th especially with your scoring cats. Especially assuming Giroux or even C. Perry looks to be a beast in this league setup.
I like your goalies with Rask and Miller, your D is pretty week in my opinion. I dont think Keith and Carlson are that great in your league format and I believe you may have had some better options avaialble. Where did you draft them?
Your offense seems to be middle of the pack. Again it depends how many people are in your league but Neal and Kessel are your only 2 primary goal scorers. It seems to ease up quite a bit after that with mainly assist type guys. Pims may be an issue for you but you can always fix that by adding/dropping off the wire.
Overall i'd say a middle of the pack team.. you're gonna be in tough to compete with the top 4/5
I guess it depends on how many teams are in your league to begin with. I think your team is alright and there's nothing wrong with it. If I couldn't land any of the elite forwards, I would have taken Neal in the 1st rd as well, especially with SOG, PIM, and STP cats. In multi-cat leagues, I definitely prefer drafting the shooters just from all the other cats that gets covered from these guys.
10 team league.
@Bluck - My rationale for Neal over Perry - similar players but Neal is on a better team. I think Giroux will have a few more points than Neal, but Neal will have more shots and PIMs.
I picked Weber in the 4th, Keith in the 6th. When I took Weber, the following D were off the board: Chara, Byfuglien, Karlsson, Pietreangelo, Letang.
I was thinking of taking Karlsson at 5th overall, (he went right after me at 6), but decided against it just in case there's any kind of slump.
I've read a lot of people who aren't big on Carlson, but he's one of my big sleepers, now that Wideman is gone and Green will always be injury prone. With a healthy Backstrom I'm hoping Washington turns in to a scoring machine again.
In a 10-team league, I'd probably peg this team somewhere around 6th/7th.
Scoring makes up a big chunk of this league and this team appears to light for a 10-team league. (That said, with H2H... and with a short-season, randomness i.e. better results, are possible to happen).
So... was Neal the pick at 5th OVERALL?
(Most leagues should go: Malkin/Crosby/Ovechkin... Giroux/Lundqvist/Tavares... those have been the top 6, IMO).
Originally Posted by Pengwin7
I find Neal at 5th to be a big stretch. I'd rather have Ovechkin/Giroux/Tavares over Neal. I think Neal's production will dip with a healthy Crosby. Overall looks like a solid, not great, team.
I'm really wondering why you have 4 goalies. With Miller and Rask I don't see what Anderson AND Neuvirth bring to the table. I'm assuming a 3 starts per week minimum, I don't how these 2 help you more than an extra skater.
Stamkos, Malkin, Crosby and Ovie were off the board.
I like Neal more than Giroux b/c of injury risk, PIMs, Shots, and Neal is RW (hopefully gaining LW eligiblity) while Giroux is C.
Tavares doesn't get many PIMs and NYI is generally a +/- abyss.
I took Anderson because it was getting late and he was the only "real" goalie left, so i took him just to screw some guys who were light on goaltending.
I took neuvirth really late just to screw the Holtby owner, and the thinking was that w/ Holtby on a 2-way and Neuvirth on a 1-way, he could be the starter on an improved Caps team. Anyway, it was low-risk high reward with such a late pick.
I also considered Lundqvist at 5th overall, but this league traditionally takes a pass on goalies until later rounds, so I was hoping to get him in the 2nd or 3rd, but he wound up going later in the 1st and starting an unprecedented early run on goalies. I came out of it with Rask-Miller which I am more than comfortable with. And I think my PIM, SOG, scoring combo will be enough to carry the day here. If Lupul-Kessel are as solid as last year and Skinner bounces back, I'm not sweating my scoring. There aren't "big names", but I prefer actual value to name value any day.
Wow... you know hockey drafts were a long time ago when I write a post and forget to include Stamkos name in the top 4. LOL.
Well... I got the 6-spot in a couple consecutive leagues this year and took Tavares in both... with James Neal still on the board.
In a pool with 4 point categories (G,A,P,PPP+SHP), I'd definitely would've gone with Tavares.
He'll also register a good amount of SOG, not much off Neal.
+/- is a statistic that varies yearly and the best players find a way to do well.
Like goalie states (see below), +/- can vary highly week-to-week... so I find I devalue it a bit.
Anyways, JT already jumped from -16 to -6... what's to say he doesn't kick up to +6?
PIM sure... Neal is good, JT low... but...
In a H2H league... you could even consider just all-together punting PIM.
There's 11 categories... punting 1/11 is not terrible.
In shallow leagues (10-teams or less), I'm quite fond of drafting goalies very, very, very late. Goalie stats fluctuate highly from week-to-week.
Last year, I remember seeing teams win my leagues with Mike Smith & Brian Elliott as two goalies that played very well down the stretch.
For example, take Henrik Lundqvist.
Let's look at his performance in the last week of the season last year.
Tuesday April 3rd vs PHI: 40 shots, 37 sv, 3ga, W.
Thursday April 5th vs PIT: DNP (Biron in net)
Saturday April 7th vs WAS: 17 shots, 13 sv, 4ga, L.
For the week:
57 shots, 50 saves, .878 SV%, 3.50GAA, 1 Win.
As single-week statistics... these are not good. Bad actually.
Point: A lot of teams with Henrik Lundqvist probably lost their goalie categories in their championship week of their H2H leagues.
So... if it can happen to any good goalie, why invest too much in them?
In H2H leagues... I really prefer going skater-heavy in the top of the draft and late-drafting some serviceable goalies.
I'm going to make my H2H playoffs simply by rostering awesome skater teams and by either:
i) Taking W/SO by rostering a boatload of goalies
ii) Taking GAA/SV% by getting lucky, or pulling my goalies after good starts.
Anyways... I don't see enough offense on your team and it seems you drafted some good goalies, but maybe in spots where you should have taken skaters.
Not a bad team, but I'd say more 6th/7th out of 10.
Neal at 90 points and 5th overall might be a bit ambitious but you stuck with your strategy so hope it pays off for you. I feel you are a bit light on offense. It may work out for you, but I feel you will have to rely on a lot to go right (repeat career seasons, good health, breakouts etc) for that to happen. But in a H2H league it's not about totals it's rather consistent production of your entire squad, including guys stepping up when others slump, and peak in the stretch run and playoffs. Also, and possibly most importantly, is how you adjust when things go wrong. Can you pick up the right guys off FA/the waiver wire? Can you evaluate players well enough to identify your needs and give you a boost when you need it, even small ones that might help you win an additional one or two categories every so often? If so, then that could give you an edge over some of your competitors. By the way, is this a H2H category based league, that is, you win a week e.g. 7-4, 6-5, rather than 1-0?
Originally Posted by bowlercoaster
I don't have a problem with getting one top goalie early when your categories essentially focus more on the quality (GAA,SV%) over quantity (W), since shutouts are few and far between and not often a factor on a weekly basis. Sure, as Pengwin suggested, all it takes is a bad week in the playoffs by your goalies and you're done. So, the same can be said about your offense, but of course you have more guys that contribute so if a few slump then others can back them up. But it's also about getting goalies that will actually help you get to the playoffs, and if getting guys that should be better, then the piece of mind is worth it.
Though in a relatively shallow league (well more medium sized) I would probably have picked one top goalie and then waited a bit for a second and focused on my offense in between. But that's my strategy, and there are plenty of other strategies that work, so I'm not going to say you are wrong and nobody can say that. Miller/Rask can be money for you when it counts and you could win a title - who knows. That's the excitement and randomness of H2H - we just don't know.
Just curious, when you did you pick up your 4th starting D vs picking up your last starting and bench forwards?
Stewart late is not a bad pickup, but he needs a lot better ice time for him to get close to those projections. Backes led the team with 54 points last season, so even if the team scores a bit better overall, I wouldn't be expecting much more than 40 for Stewart unless his ice time/PP time improves. But still, as a late flier, little harm done.
Overall, you have a decent team. I'm not going to rate it as it's all about context, fluctuations during the season, different evaluations etc. But it can be competitive if you avoid too many injuries and slumps, and get some nice breakouts. There is risk, but it could pay off and keep you competitive throughout the season. By the way, how many make the playoffs?
You're not the only one betting on Neal having a great year. In my league, he went FOURTH overall, ahead of Giroux, Lundqvist, Tavares, etc... In fact Tavares didn't get taken until the first pick of the second round (11th) (!!). Madness. I couldn't believe it.
At any rate, I agree with horrorfan in that a lot has to go right for you. Toews, Lupul, Havlat are all injury risks. If they can stay healthy and score at the pace they've shown capable of, you may be alright.
Part of it was i figured we would have a shorter season (now I'm hoping we get one at all) so I thought rolling the dice on Lupul-Kessel, Toews, Havlat, even Ryan Whitney, is a little less risky over a 48-61 game schedule rather than an 82.
@horrorfan: My 4th D was Ryan Whitney, taken in the 14th round, Tyler Ennis was my last "starting" forward taken in the 16th round.
We have unlimited free agent moves up to our play offs, so that door is always open.
6 teams make the play offs, top 2 get a bye.
What are people's thoughts on Skinner? I think he has the potential to be a monster, but I haven't seen much mention of him on here.
Thanks for all the feedback, at the very least it gave me a bit of hockey to think about.
Speaking of FAs, the following are available:
Any of those guys jump out at you as an upgrade over Gionta or Faulk?
I'd consider Hudler as a possible upgrade, if he can develop good chemistry with his new Flames linemates. Though he had a 20% shooting percentage last season, so will have to up the shots or be a more efficient playmaker to hit 50 again. Gagner might also be a good pickup - not as sure about him though.
Originally Posted by bowlercoaster
I'd definitely pick up EJ over Faulk, simply for the chance that he could break out as the PP QB for the Avs. Little risk, high reward.
In a shortened season, Huberdeau might be ready to make the jump.
He's obviously keeping his hockey going by playing in the Q.
Gionta is an easy-drop... I'd put Huberdeau on my roster immediately.
You can always swap out Hubs later.
There are always defensemen that rise up every year.
Faulk has some hype going into the season.
Personally, I think there we'll see some good production from Voynov & Souray.
Both could be on PP1 with Doughty & Fowler. Souray also shoots a lot and if that ANA PP clicks, he might get a lot of points.
I could also see the DAL PP revving up this year... and if Robidas jumps back on PP1 (last year it was Goligoski + Souray), he too could have nice stats.
I'd probably hold Faulk though... if these other players have sat on the waiver wire this long, they'll sit there a bit longer.
I'm sketchy on Faulk's production, but the upside is there if Carolina decides to try him on PP1 with Pitkanen/E.Staal/J.Staal/Semin... it's worth the risk to hold Faulk.
Don't take anyone over Faulk...Faulk is going to be quarterbacking the great Carolina PP that could consist of Semin, Staal x 2, Skinner, Jokinen...etc