Felix vs. Hamels/Greinke
 

I was inquiring about an SP from a guy in our league that has a stable of studs.
He's got Strasburg, Hamels, Greinke, Wilson, Buerhle, and Haren.

I offered a first rounder for one of Greinke or Hamels. That would ensure I'd get one of them (my first rounder will be late, and his extra pitchers are arguable gonna be the best of the available players).

Anyways, he came back with this offer:

My Felix Hernandez
for
his Hamels or Greinke + a first rounder (it'd be better than mine, and would give me two).

I'm leaning toward rejecting -- but figured I'd ask here.
How much of a difference would there be between King Felix and these two guys. Felix doesn't exactly get wins, although he's great in the other cats).

Thoughts?
I'm thinking of staying firm.

Other possibility -- I ask for both Greinke and Hamels for Felix?

Oh, I've got Dickey, Holland, and Marcum/Beachy as my other three. I've got Bauer, Pomerantz, and Hultzen on my farm (probably will leave them there for one more year).

Well, you won't (or shouldn't!) get both of them for Felix. It all depends what the 1st round pick might be. Any idea what it could be based on historical evidence? :P

Last year, Darvish and Profar went 1-2, and then guys like Stubbs came later.

I think I could push for both. He'll be losing 2 of his guys anyways (we can only keep 4 SP).

He came back with Greinke or Hamels + Haren for King Felix.

That would change my 4 from:
Hernandez, Dickey, Holland, Marcum (or Beachy if healthy)
to
Greinke/Hamels, Haren, Dickey, Holland/Marcum/Beachy

Thoughts?

I just don't see the value here to be honest, Felix is a top ten pitcher and I wouldn't want to deal him unless I got two really good pitchers back.

Haren is 32 and just came off a terrible season, while Hamels is very close to a top ten pitcher. Greinke is a top-20 pitcher in my view, so what I would look for is Hamels+ a better pitcher and then you're getting appropriate value for Hernandez.

Does he have any other pitchers he's willing to deal?

I talked him into Hamels + Greinke for Felix + 2nd (and again, our league doesn't leave a lot for the draft, so it's not a major loss in the pick).

I think this helps me a lot. At least I hope so.

Nicely done, that's a great trade for you IMO.
:)

Thanks. I'm excited -- pays to be persistent.

That'll leave me with:
Hamels, Greinke, Dickey (scares me a bit, but...), and one of Marcum/Holland/Beachy

I might try to 2-for-1 two of them. It'll be tough though since they all come with bigtime question marks (injured, young/mediocre season, injured).

Thanks for suggestions and help. I'm still figuring out keeper baseball, so every little bit helps.

Love this. Nice work.

As far as wins, last 6 years

Hamels 82
Felix 82
Greinke 70 in 5 years

Career xFIP

Felix 3.29
Hamels 3.39
Greinke 3.62

I like the deal, and keep Holland out of those 3 suspect choices, for the last spot.
I would deal Dickey for anything, as his K/9, was way above his career norm.