What to make of Hosmer?
1 league my final keeper spot comes down to Hosmer or Willingham. Willingham went 35/110 while hitting a decent .260. If healthy, 30/95 seems likely again for 'Ham while even if he has a great year Hosmer isn't going to hit 30 next year. This is a 5 year keeper league where Hosmer could be kept 2 more years after '13 if he improves. Is the chance Hosmer steps up worth keeping him over Willingham and his pretty much sure thing power #'s? Right now 1's my final keeper and the other is back in the draft so that final keeper spot should be replaceable by finding keepers in the draft of 13 or with a hot rookie. Willingham probly has a better 13 but isn't likely a keeper in 14; where Hosmer just has to take a step up to garner keeper-worthiness again. Your thoughts on Hosmer vs Willingham and Hosmer in general; I have him in 2 other leagues but neither is as tough a call as this 1. Part of me just wants to forget Hosmers 12 season and just pencil him in as 1 of the bright young players that will earn their keep on my teams as many years as I own them. Wishful thinking or the way it will be?
I'd keep Hosmer over Willingham as it's a keeper and Hosmer has much more upside than Willingham who just had a career years. Don't forget about Hosmer's rookie season where he was dynamite. Also, with Wil Myers most likely graduating next summer, it will be one more quality bat hitting in front of Hosmer which means better pitches to hit and better stats.
Poulin No Foolin
For myself, I take Hosmer. Willingham is 34 in February and I'm not sure where you get the 30/95 seems 'likely' for him - he's pulled 95 RBI's exactly twice in his career (last year and this year) and is typically more like a 70 RBI guy. His power surge is all recent, too - with 29 HR in 2011 and 35 in 2012 where his career norms are a lot closer to 20. I'd have to guess him more like a 24 HR and 90 RBI guy with .260 average if I had to project him right now. It almost defies what we know of a player when they jump 50% in power numbers at age 32. I don't have ANY hint of this, but I almost wonder if there's some PED's involved - but I do know it's unusual for a hitter to hit their mid-30's without a drop off. Add in the increased recovery time and added missed games from misc. injuries that build up and I'd call 2012 a career year for Willingham.
Originally Posted by fastdogs
Hosmer, on the other hand, is probably about the same stats as Willingham (24 HR and 90 RBI with a .260) but has more upside and as a younger player should have a better shot at staying healthy.
I will tell you the analysis for one year is fairly close - but when I'm given a choice, I'll take a 23 year old who's got more to learn over a 34 year old who's producing out of nowhere. Especially in a keeper format.
Willingham is one of the most underrated players in baseball, he's turned into a great power hitter and can hit in the middle of any lineup.
However, he's not getting any younger and Hosmer's upside alone makes him worth keeping IMO (30-40 HR, 100+ RBI).
thanks for the replies. I was able to get Willingham at about the 2/3 point of the draft last year, maybe I'm a little too high on him. He's someone I'll try to get again next year as he was good pretty much until he got dinged up in Sept. I do think he'll be an underrated source of power again, but I'll try to add him in the draft rather than keep him
Another question you'll face is: Which one will be more widely sought after in your draft? If someone is desperate for a 1B keeper Hosmer would be mighty tempting whereas Willingham has far more mileage and is more of a question mark with each passing season than the 23 year old.
Originally Posted by dmvincent
I don't know if Hosmer will ever settle in to the point where he's knocking in close to 40 HR's. I think his swing will produce less HR's (thinking 25-30 consistently) and more doubles, but the 100 RBI's sounds spot on.