Offer for Gallardo
 

Yahoo 1-year Roto, 20 teams, Daily, Max games/innings=162/1475
R,HR,RBI,SB,AVG,OPS,W,SV,K,HLD,ERA,WHIP
C,1B,2B,SS,3B,IF,3OF,2Util,4SP,3RP,2P,4BN,3DL

C: J.Montero; 1B: Butler; 2B: Cuddyer(1,O); SS: Aviles(2,3); 3B: Beltre; IF: Walker(2); OF: Victorino, Swisher(1), Pagan; UTIL: E.Cabrera(2,S), Aoki(O); DL: Tulowitzki(S)
SP: D.Hudson, Buehrle, Cahill, Pettitte, Liriano, Lohse; SP/RP: Aceves, Coke; RP: Johnson, Capps, Holland, J.Peralta, Brothers; DL: Paulino, Farnsworth

I had enquired about Gallardo and I have been proposed this counter offer:

I give: J.Johnson, Pettitte
I receive: Gallardo, Venable

Venable is just a throw in as I have Paulino likely coming off the DL in a few days. I'm leading in saves, though Capps and Aceves aren't exactly secure. Who knows about Farnsworth coming back to close as well. Furthermore, I wonder if this is a good opportunity to sell high on Pettitte.

Clearly I need a pitching upgrade, though they've done well for me so far. My main pitching weaknesses are wins and K/9 (Ks I'm middle of the pack but I'm amongst the highest in innings - on pace). I'm fourth overall and not far away from being in striking distance of the contenders. I can give more details if required.

Thoughts please?

Just to add a few extra bits of info and my further thoughts:

I am leaning towards accepting it, as I wonder if the second half of the season will wear down on Pettitte a bit. He's been great, but in my opinion he's been abnormally great. Great K/9 so far but is that sustainable for him?

How much of a buy low is Gallardo anyway? His numbers in past seasons haven't been stellar, but he's due for some consistency, right? I would be hoping for an ERA in the low 3s for the second half. Not sure if that's ambitious or realistic. Maybe a second half closer to 3.50 would be more realistic.

I don't have access to my league at work so can't check the detailed standings, but when I'm home I'll check to see how much of a gap I have in the saves department. I think I'm up around 10 or so on second place, but after that I'm not sure. Also Johnson has been stellar this season, but is it sustainable? I know looking at stats in isolation don't always tell the whole story, but his BABIP is .145. That can't remain that low, can it?

I'm not a fan of this trade for you.

re: Pettitte.
He was old back in 2010... check his month-to-month game log of IP vs. K.
His lowest K/9 months were April & May!!!
He was actually better K/9-wise, later in the season.

Jim Johnson seems to be clicking on all cylinders... and I honestly think he is the real deal this year. Full confidence. I don't focus on BABIP too much for RPs. I think they typically can have crazy-low (seeming "out-of-whack") BABIP because they can be so focused for a short time (1 IP).

If you look at a full list (incl. non-qualified RPs), you'll see that most of the lower BABIP are relief pitchers. It's just different, a pitchers "focused" stuff is just harder to hit. Contact may be made, but not good contact. The lower BABIP correlates to the lower WHIP and lower ERA for RPs... IMO.

I'd decline this trade.
I like Gallardo, but I don't see him being a significant upgrade on Pettitte and obviously Jim Johnson is a very good trade chip for you.

Yes, decline the trade IMO.

I definitely do this trade. Gallardo's always been known as a second half pitcher, and while Johnson has been great this year, closers are too volatile and shouldn't prevent you from doing this deal. Sell high on Pettitte as well, you don't know if at this age he can hold up.

In my opinion, a great gamble for you.

Thanks guys.

Pengwin, interesting numbers you picked out for Pettitte. I wasn't aware of that thanks. However, he's never had a K rate as high so if I were a betting man I would expect that to drop as the season progresses. By how much, I don't know. I also decided to have a look at his ERA on a month by month basis in 2010 out of curiosity and noticed this:

April: 2.12; May: 2.87; June: 3.18; July: 3.86; and then he got hurt. Still great overall numbers, but he did fade as the season progressed. Who's to say it won't happen again?

Also interesting. Not to say that he can't remain solid for the rest of the year, I'm just not sure he can keep up this pace. Though, he started later this season so my 'age' theory may not hold water, and obviously Dickey is proving most people wrong.

As for Gallardo, this is the worst he's been so hope for optimism, but a quick check on BABIP is steady. A bigger concern is that his HR rate is high, so not sure how much he will improve. So, now I'm having second thoughts, but still feel he will improve.

As for Johnson, good points about the low BABIP for relievers. Though, the lowest BABIP by a closer last season was .232 and the season before was .199. So perhaps he won't drop off as much as first thought, but with a .145 a drop is likely (or maybe he'll be an outlier).

As for being a trading chip, I agree, which is why I am considering this deal. But maybe I am overvaluing Gallardo and undervaluing Pettitte. But given the depth, it is very difficult to acquire a top pitcher. Even though the depth also helps those with closer strength (only so many to go around), I am in a pretty good position so far.

Maybe I counter with Capps?

If I were to decline the deal, I don't see any other option with this manager. I had originally offered Buehrle and Lohse, and he doesn't want either. Fair enough. Plus, with Paulino coming back, I need to drop someone, and neither of them I feel are droppable, as they are still good for matchups. I'd like to keep Cahill. Gallardo is also his best pitcher.

Food for thought. Decisions decisions...

Thanks. That's more in line with my thinking so far.

Appreciate varying opinions though, as it makes me think about it in different ways.

Y'know... I should have looked more into Gallardo too... I focused so hard on Pettitte/JimJ that I didn't look at Gallardo who has had about 10 straight QS.

Yeah he's been solid lately. Does it change your opinion? Happy to consider both sides of the argument though.

I accepted it.

I figured I need to give it a shot if I want to contend for the title, and I just didn't feel my pitching would be good enough over the long run, even though it's been decent so far. Thankfully I'm in a good position for saves so willing to part with Johnson. Here's hoping that Broxton gets traded and Holland becomes closer.

Thanks for the advice, even if I didn't take most of it. It's always helpful to hear both sides.