1. Shooting percentage (SH%). Did a player shoot much higher or lower than their career average? If so, adjust predictions accordingly for a more normal shooting percentage.
2. Powerplay points (PPP). Did a player's team struggle on the PP? Many times PPs just click or fizzle in a given year and then the addition or subtraction of one player (say, Jagr?) can completely re-work the entire PP efficiency.
A good 3rd one that doesn't show up in common statistics is assists: 1st or 2nd assists.
Did a player get a lot of 2nd assists? (I like to call these "token" assists)
Or is the player a bonafide 1st assist kind of guy.
Here is last year's top players listing a RATIO of A1:A2 (both in percentage)
The list includes the 464 players that averaged more the 0.2assist1 & 0.2assist2 per 60minutes. (In other words, guys that averaged at least 0.4 assists per game).
84:16 Perry, Corey (ANA) [*19 first assists & 4 second asssists for Perry last year... indicates his assist total SHOULD increase with more A2.]
84:16 Stafford, Drew (BUF) [*25 first assists & 5 second asssists for Stafford last year... indicates his assist total SHOULD increase with more A2.]
83:17 Kennedy, Tyler (PIT)
81:19 Versteeg, Kris (FLA)
80:20 Tanguay, Alex (CGY)
80:20 Malkin, Evgeni (PIT) [*As an example, this means that of Malkin's 59 assists last year, 47 were 1st assists and ONLY 12 were 2nd assists. Wow!]
79:21 Selanne, Teemu (ANA)
78:22 Burrows, Alex (VAN) [*Burrows was also one of the most Assist2 heavy guys in 2010-2011... so it shows this statistic is unreliable and CAN fluctuate.]
78:22 Couture, Logan (SJ)
75:25 Nash, Rick (CBJ)
75:25 Staal, Jordan (PIT)
75:25 Cullen, Matt (MIN)
75:25 Cammalleri, Mike (CGY)
75:25 Whitney, Ray (PHX)
74:26 Kane, Pat (CHI)
74:26 Bergeron, Patrice (BOS)
74:26 Alfredsson, Daniel (OTT)
74:26 Pavelski, Joe (SJ)
73:27 Hejduk, Milan (COL)
Others above 70:30 (Craig Smith, Grabovski, Taylor Hall, Tavares, E.Staal, Antropov, Oshie, Stepan, Gerbe, Spezza, A.Steen, Stamkos, Zetterberg)
About 80% of the NHL will fall between 70:30 & 40:60 ratio split
40:60 Ehrhoff, C. (BUF)
40:60 Landeskog, G (COL)
40:60 Carle, Matt (PHI)
40:60 Read, Matt (PHI)
38:62 Campbell, Brian (FLA)
37:63 Hamhuis, Dan (VAN)
35:65 Bogosian, Zach (WPG)
35:65 Seabrook, Brent (CHI)
35:65 Benn, Jamie (DAL)
34:66 Morrow, Brenden (DAL)
33:67 Elliott, Stefan (COL)
33:67 Connolly, Brett (TB)
33:67 Nikitin, Nikita (CBJ)
32:68 Bieksa, Kevin (VAN)
28:72 Wolski, Wojtek (FLA)
24:76 Boyle, Dan (SJ) [*For Boyle, this works out to his 39 assists as: 9 first assists and 30 second assists.]
17:83 Foligno, Marcus (BUF) [*Really, it's a small sample size. Foligno only had 7 assists and this is the ratio for having one 1st assist & six 2nd assists.]
Getting a ton of 2nd assists isn't necessarily a bad thing. It's the pass that sets up the pass.
Often, the sign of a lot of 2nd assists can be a complimentary player on a good powerplay (Hamhuis & Bieksa: VAN, Read & Carle: PHI, Boyle: SJ).
But there are some curious players on there where you have to raise an eyebrow.
Marcus Foligno & Nikita Nikitin were a few players I saw listed as great sleeper picks in their drafts... but how lucky were those assists?
Were they just luckily riding the coattails of their teammates?
Also - I now have some concern on a few players that I wouldn't have thought otherwise about: Jamie Benn & Gabriel Landeskog.
We always point to a good young player and expect their point totals to rise... but if they had a boatload of token 2nd assists... will they rise for sure?
We can also think... hmm, if those guys were picking up all the 2nd assists... who was picking him up the 1st assists in COL & DAL:
73:27 Hejduk, Milan
68:32 O'Reilly, Ryan
67:33 Stastny, Paul
69:31 Dvorak, Radek
68:32 Ribeiro, Mike
59:41 Eriksson, Loui
If you are curious about any other players Assist1:Assist2 ratio just ask. Maximum of five players.
I get these stats from behindthenet.ca & move them into a spreadsheet and then ratio by A/(A+B).